@techreport{FreudlspergerKnudsenRedeker, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Freudlsperger, Christian and Knudsen, Edward L. and Redeker, Nils}, title = {Transatlantic Trade post-Trump - Priorities for a Pragmatic Reset}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-37127}, pages = {14}, abstract = {After four turbulent years in trade relations, Europe has high expectations of the Biden administration. However, the room for big trade reforms is small and new grand-scale liberalization is neither economically necessary nor politically realistic. Accordingly, we propose a pragmatic agenda that focuses on ending ongoing trade conflicts and making progress on some WTO reforms as well as trade-adjacent issues such as climate change and supply-chain security.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Knudsen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {No going back? A transatlantic cooperation agenda under Biden}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-36871}, pages = {5}, abstract = {If Joe Biden is elected US President in November, will he restore the preTrump era of transatlantic relations? While some Europeans may wish for that, it is neither feasible nor desirable, as Edward Knudsen argues in this policy brief. A changing geopolitical landscape and declining economic conditions mean that new solutions are needed. Instead of focussing on traditional forms of cooperation like liberalising trade and bolstering defence, the US and EU should work together to tackle inequality and corruption, address the climate emergency, and defuse geopolitical tensions.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Knudsen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {The weaponisation of the US financial system: How can Europe respond?}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-35581}, pages = {21}, abstract = {US secondary sanctions present a unique challenge for Europe. These measures limit where European firms can operate, hinder the EU's ability to maintain its foreign commitments, and limit Europe's ambitions of achieving strategic sovereignty. The US's re-imposition of secondary sanctions on Iran in May 2018 has highlighted this issue. With geopolitical tensions rising, it is possible that the US could impose secondary sanctions on larger EU trading partners. In light of this possibility, this paper explores why secondary sanctions are so effective and offers concrete proposals to counter them.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Knudsen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {A kinder, gentler "America First?" Taking stock of transatlantic relations under Biden}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-3932}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-39323}, pages = {4}, abstract = {Over 100 days into the Biden administration, how have transatlantic relations shifted? This policy brief builds upon analysis from an October 2020 piece titled "No going back? A transatlantic cooperation agenda under Biden" and examines lessons for European policymakers from the first few months of Joe Biden's presidency. It argues that while Biden has retained many core parts of Donald Trump's "America First" agenda, there are still several promising avenues for transatlantic cooperation over the coming years. These include accelerated climate action, coordinated economic stimulus, and ensuring global vaccine access. Reaching these goals will require joint action to defuse geopolitical tensions and ensure greater economic justice at home and abroad.}, language = {en} } @techreport{AnheierAbelsYangetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Abels, Christoph M. and Yang, Yuqing and Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {Germany's Soft Power 2030: Scenarios for an Unsettled World}, doi = {10.17901/ecp.2022.076}, pages = {74}, abstract = {This foresight project focuses on a key question for the future of Germany's foreign policy: Given changing geopolitical and economic relationships among major powers, what possible futures can be foreseen soft power approaches or external cultural policy (ECP) in terms of narratives, strategies, goals, policies, and programmatic activities? To address this question, we place Germany in a comparative framework of international relations that considers soft power approaches in the context of prevailing geopolitical and economic relations between the European Union, the United States of America, and the People's Republic of China as well as other global players. In each case, we consider soft power approaches relative to hard and sharp power options. The time frame for the future scenarios is the year 2030, anticipating likely and potential developments and events from 2022 onward. The scenarios are based on a series of brainstorming and validation sessions, literature reviews, personal interviews, and an online survey fielded among experts and representatives of leading institutions. We identified two major drivers of future developments: the state of the world economy and the state of the world's security situation. Exploring the interaction between these two drivers yielded four distinct scenarios.}, language = {en} } @article{AnheierAbelsYangetal., author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Abels, Christoph M. and Yang, Yuqing and Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {Germany's Soft Power 2030: Scenarios for an Unsettled World - Executive Summary}, series = {"Germany's Soft Power 2030: Scenarios for an Unsettled World - Executive Summary," in: Helmut K. Anheier and ifa (eds.)}, journal = {"Germany's Soft Power 2030: Scenarios for an Unsettled World - Executive Summary," in: Helmut K. Anheier and ifa (eds.)}, doi = {10.17901/ecp.2022.077}, pages = {1 -- 7}, abstract = {This foresight project focuses on a key question for the future of Germany's foreign policy: Given changing geopolitical and economic relationships among major powers, what possible futures can be foreseen soft power approaches or external cultural policy (ECP) in terms of narratives, strategies, goals, policies, and programmatic activities? To address this question, we place Germany in a comparative framework of international relations that considers soft power approaches in the context of prevailing geopolitical and economic relations between the European Union, the United States of America, and the People's Republic of China as well as other global players. In each case, we consider soft power approaches relative to hard and sharp power options. The time frame for the future scenarios is the year 2030, anticipating likely and potential developments and events from 2022 onward. The scenarios are based on a series of brainstorming and validation sessions, literature reviews, personal interviews, and an online survey fielded among experts and representatives of leading institutions. We identified two major drivers of future developments: the state of the world economy and the state of the world's security situation. Exploring the interaction between these two drivers yielded four distinct scenarios.}, language = {en} } @article{AnheierKnudsen, author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {The 21st century trust and leadership problem: Quoi faire?}, series = {Global Policy}, journal = {Global Policy}, issn = {1758-5880}, doi = {10.1111/1758-5899.13162}, pages = {1 -- 10}, abstract = {Much of the democratic world faces a form of socio-political crisis. To varying degrees, four trends seem to be present in almost every case: declining institutional trust, failing leadership, increasing political polarisation, and weakened accountability. Although each trend has its own dynamic and causes, they jointly create complex challenges and governance problems for democratic societies. Furthermore, underlying them all is the persistent problem of inequality, which erodes trust, prevents the best leaders from rising to the top, polarises society, and shields elites from accountability. We propose a wide range of potential solutions to this crisis. Of the four, we propose that countries focus primarily on increasing institutional trust and improving leadership potential. Both aspects are particularly impactful and malleable, could influence the other two components and, over time, create a virtuous cycle pulling countries out of crisis. Proposed measures for institutional trust include expanded civic literacy, more expansive regulation of tech platforms, stricter media laws to foster better public discourse and a wider use of codes of conduct. For leadership, we propose more diverse channels and expanded selection pools for leadership recruitment, emphasising ethical conviction and targeted incentives for leadership roles. Essential to all of them, however, is tackling inequality.}, language = {en} } @techreport{LamyKnudsenBerardetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Lamy, Pascal and Knudsen, Edward L. and B{\´e}rard, Marie-H{\´e}l{\`e}ne and Fabry, Elvire and Fatah, Farid and Pons, Genevi{\`e}ve and Schweitzter, Louis and Vimont, Pierre}, title = {American Extraterritorial sanctions. Did someone say European strategic autonomy?}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-3804}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-38042}, pages = {10}, abstract = {Two years after an initial publication1 on the recommended position that the European Union should take action against US extraterritorial sanctions affecting it, this updated and expanded version draws the consequences of major developments since}, language = {en} } @article{AnheierBeggKnudsen, author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Begg, Iain and Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {Can Circles be Squared? Quandaries and Contestation Shaping the Future of Europe}, series = {Ralf Dahrendorf and the European Union 2030: Looking Back, Looking Forward}, journal = {Ralf Dahrendorf and the European Union 2030: Looking Back, Looking Forward}, editor = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Begg, Iain}, pages = {105 -- 114}, language = {en} } @techreport{AnheierKnudsenAntesetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Knudsen, Edward L. and Antes, Nicole and Hamad, Mariam and Kibwana, Aisha and Markovic-Vastag, Darinka}, title = {External Cultural Policy in International Comparison: Summary of the Report}, publisher = {Hertie School}, address = {Berlin}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4503}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-45030}, pages = {94}, language = {en} } @article{AnheierLangKnudsen, author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Lang, Markus and Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {Introducing the Berggruen Governance Index II: Initial results, 2000-2019}, series = {Global Policy}, volume = {14}, journal = {Global Policy}, number = {S4}, doi = {10.1111/1758-5899.13277}, pages = {16 -- 34}, abstract = {This article presents an overview of some of the main findings from our analysis of the Berggruen Governance Index for the 2000-2019 period. It first examines overall governance performance across world regions, singles out general trends and identifies top and bottom performers. It then briefly reviews the comparative governance performance of world powers like the United States, Brazil, China, major European countries, India and Russia as well as other selected countries in the post-Soviet space. Finally, we address more analytic questions to show the versatility of the index for hypothesis testing and theoretical purposes.}, language = {en} } @article{AnheierListKnudsen, author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and List, Regina A. and Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {Advancing governance indicator systems: Lessons learned from the 2022 symposium}, series = {Global Policy}, volume = {14}, journal = {Global Policy}, number = {S4}, doi = {10.1111/1758-5899.13284}, pages = {136 -- 146}, abstract = {The Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) is a new and innovative entry into the crowded domain of quantitative governance research. In its effort to contribute to the field, the BGI builds off of and acts in dialogue with several other governance indicator projects from across the globe. As part of a collaborative outlook, the BGI convened the first of three symposia at the UCLA Luskin School in October 2022, titled 'Advancing Governance Indicator Systems: The 2022 Conference'. The event invited representatives from other indicator projects to share their thoughts on the BGI, present their own projects and discuss avenues for further research and development of 'planetary' indicators. This article discusses the highlights and key contributions from the conference.}, language = {en} } @article{AnheierLangKnudsen, author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Lang, Markus and Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {Introducing the Berggruen Governance Index I: Conceptual and methodological framework}, series = {Global Policy}, volume = {14}, journal = {Global Policy}, number = {S4}, doi = {10.1111/1758-5899.13278}, pages = {5 -- 15}, abstract = {Governance is at the heart of how well governments meet public needs and manage a wide array of common problems. Why do some countries perform poorly in delivering healthcare, reducing inequality, providing a clean environment or delivering some other public good to their populations even while they have the resources to do so? Does the capacity of states to provide the basics for societies to thrive depend on forms of democratic accountability that represents different interests, or are systems under technocratic control that impose solutions and disregard, even suppress, many voices better at meeting public needs? Existing indices do not systematically examine the relationship between the components that contribute to governance performance. In our understanding of governance, depicted as the Governance Triangle, public goods provision is a function of state capacity and accountability. Rather than focusing on a single composite performance measure, the Berggruen Governance Index examines the interactions among these dimensions. We find that the key to good governance is achieving a balance among the three dimensions on an upward and sustainable trajectory. This article introduces the Index and the conceptual and methodological framework that underpins it and then outlines the content of this special issue.}, language = {en} } @article{Knudsen, author = {Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {A falling star? Origins of declining state capacity and democratic accountability in the United States}, series = {Global Policy}, volume = {14}, journal = {Global Policy}, number = {S4}, publisher = {Wiley}, issn = {1758-5880}, doi = {10.1111/1758-5899.13282}, pages = {47 -- 57}, abstract = {AbstractThe United States—often hailed as the 'oldest democracy in the world' and the 'leader of the free world'—has fallen on hard times. In addition to recent headline-grabbing political events that have highlighted its political dysfunction, data from the 2022 Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) reveal that overall state capacity and democratic accountability have been declining for years. Although public goods provision has remained on a steady course, the US still trails much of the developed world. We find this struggling performance is largely the result of neglecting three types of infrastructure: civic, physical and social. Specifically, we argue that the crisis became particularly pronounced due to an insufficient response to the 2008 global financial crisis. Although some recent political achievements could slow the decline, more drastic action will be required to reverse these troubling trends.}, language = {en} } @article{Knudsen, author = {Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {Escape from the 'lost decades?' Governance challenges in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela}, series = {Global Policy}, volume = {14}, journal = {Global Policy}, number = {S4}, publisher = {Wiley}, issn = {1758-5880}, doi = {10.1111/1758-5899.13279}, pages = {113 -- 123}, abstract = {Much of Latin America has experienced a renewed 'lost decade', failing to substantially expand quality of life since the late 2000s. While the outcomes of governance performance across the largest countries - including Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina - have discrete causes, common themes like internal conflict, corruption, and overreliance on natural resources plague the entire region. Put more generally, the inability to turn democratic accountability into a state mechanism able to deliver economic growth and public goods in a sustainable manner is a liability affecting all five countries. To explore the difficulties that the large Latin American countries have faced in the twenty-first century, this article examines results from the 2022 Berggruen Governance Index, and then presents three key issues facing the region: insufficient state capacity, flirtations with authoritarianism, and economic inequality and inflation. While the challenges remain substantial, increased regional integration may offer one way out of the predicament.}, language = {en} } @article{Knudsen, author = {Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {Stable or stagnant? Political economy and governance in the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany since 2000}, series = {Global Policy}, volume = {14}, journal = {Global Policy}, number = {S4}, publisher = {Wiley}, issn = {1758-5880}, doi = {10.1111/1758-5899.13271}, pages = {90 -- 103}, abstract = {At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the large democracies of Western Europe experienced some of the most prosperous and peaceful decades in human history. Specifically, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany experienced high and stable quality of life, democratic accountability and state capacity between 2000 and 2019, according to the 2022 Berggruen Governance Index. While all four of these countries are among the top performers in the Index, substantial problems lurk beneath the surface. Notably, each failed to capitalise on the low interest rate environment in the decade following the global financial crisis of 2007-2009—albeit in different ways and for different reasons in each country. In particular, low investment in infrastructure and key technologies, the persistence of stubborn regional inequalities, and resulting sluggish GDP growth have prevented the 'Big Four' in Western Europe from improving further and future-proofing their existing gains.}, language = {en} } @techreport{AnheierKnudsenToddTombini, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Knudsen, Edward L. and Todd-Tombini, Sofia}, title = {The New Nationalisms and the Future of Cultural Relations: External Cultural Policy in an Age of Political Extremes}, publisher = {ifa (Institut f{\"u}r Auslandsbeziehungen e.V.)}, address = {Stuttgart}, doi = {10.17901/1493}, pages = {55}, abstract = {This paper explores the impact of rising nationalism on soft power by analysing the external cultural policies (ECP) of eight countries: Germany, France, Italy, Poland, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, Russia, and Turkey. It argues that ECP will increasingly operate in a zero-sum international environment shaped by nationalism, with its domestic effects varying across nations. While institutions in France are more exposed to nationalist influence, the 'arm's length' principle offers greater protection in the UK and Germany, and the diversity of private actors serves as a protective buffer in the United States. Nationalistic ECP in China, Russia, and Turkey is anticipated to grow, while Poland exemplifies institutional resistance to nationalism. The paper then proceeds into a case study of the current discourse in Germany, contrasting the views of different nationalist parties about German ECP. Finally, recommendations are proposed for countries like Germany and other European nations: support the arm's-length principle of key institutions; enhance coordination among ECP actors domestically and within the EU; shield against malign foreign influence; create and communicate anti-nationalist narratives; proactively leveraging existing strengths and opportunities.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {Fiscal Austerity, Economic Stagnation, and Public Scandal: Governance Performance in the United Kingdom Ahead of the 2024 Election}, publisher = {Berggruen Governance Project}, address = {United States of America}, pages = {iii, 9}, abstract = {This report evaluates the governance performance of the United Kingdom ahead of the 2024 election, focusing on the interplay between fiscal austerity, economic stagnation, and public scandal. Despite a high initial governance performance in terms of democratic accountability, state capacity, and public goods provision, recent years have seen a notable decline in state capacity due to austerity measures and political scandals. These have eroded public trust and highlighted the need for structural reforms. Key recommendations include enhancing investment in public services, improving regional economic policies, and addressing the UK's growing fiscal challenges to restore trust and ensure long-term growth.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {Fiscal Austerity, Economic Stagnation, and Public Scandals: Governance Performance in the United Kingdom Ahead of the 2024 Election}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 9}, abstract = {As the United Kingdom heads to the polls on July 4th, 2024, the country faces several interlocking crises. Post-2010 austerity measures and the decision to leave the EU have left long-term scars on the United Kingdom´s economy, leading to an economic drift away from other wealthy countries. Changes in key indicators such a productivity and regional inequality highlight this trend. While its governance performance has been among the highest worldwide - in terms of democratic accountability (quality of democracy), state capacity (quality of government) and public goods provision (quality of life) - there are signs of stagnation and erosion, particular in state capacity. Since the latter is a major mediating factor in democracy's ability to produce public goods, there is an urgent need for structural change if the country is to avoid succumbing to even more severe problems impacting its future quality of life. However, any reform effort must weigh the pressing need for public investments with the country´s growing indebtedness.}, language = {en} } @techreport{AnheierSaracenoKnudsen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C. and Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {The 2024 Berggruen Governance Index - Democracy Challenged}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {viii, 96}, abstract = {THE BERGGRUEN GOVERNANCE INDEX PROJECT (BGI) analyzes the relationship between democratic accountability, state capacity and the provision of public goods. It builds upon prior work that examined the impact of governance and democracy on the quality of life. It is a collaborative project between the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, the Hertie School, and the Berggruen Institute.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {'Lucky' or Lacking? Economic Development and Political Institutions in Australia}, series = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, journal = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 10}, abstract = {Ahead of an important federal election on May 3rd, Australia boasts some of the world's most sophisticated political institutions and a wealthy economy. But does this veneer of success mask deeper structural issues? This report finds that, despite strong measures of GDP per capita and state capacity, Australia has long struggled to move its economy past a reliance on commodity exports—notably to China. At the same time, its democratic innovations such as compulsory electoral participation, early adoption of women's suffrage, and preferential voting conceal a darker history of indigenous dispossession and racial discrimination. To move past these problems, Australia will have to leverage its impressive state capacity and strong educational system to develop a more advanced services sector and foster more complex manufacturing. Given the necessity of innovation clusters in its already-productive cities, this will also require addressing the severe housing crisis in state capitals and encouraging more migration and acceptance of minorities. Only with a more complex economy can Australia ensure future growth and reduce vulnerability to foreign powers like China and the US.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {Canada 2025: Governance Challenges Between Resource Reliance and Geopolitical Vulnerability}, series = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, journal = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 9}, abstract = {Although it is wealthy by global standards, Canada's economy faces key vulnerabilities such as excessive reliance on extractive industries, shortages of critical goods such as housing, and heavy dependence on exports to the US. For many years, the country has failed to address these systemic problems. Despite scoring highly on most measures of the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI), its performance has been uneven over the last decade. Indeed, while Canada is generally ahead of the United States in terms of governance performance, its scores for state capacity and democratic accountability trail those of many Western European peers. This parallels a broader disillusionment with Canada's institutions, as public trust in government steadily declined during the 2010s. Addressing systemic challenges will require strident and courageous measures that aim to improve economic diversification and tackle regional inequality. Will the Liberal Party, which has neglected needed reforms for too long—and is now favored to win the elections in April—finally be up to the task?}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {Progress and Polarization in South Korea: Remarkable Economic Ascent Masks Lingering Fractures}, series = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, journal = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 9}, abstract = {On December 3rd, 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol imposed martial law in what appeared to be an attempted coup, threatening the country's hard-fought democracy. Although the attempt was unsuccessful and consequentially led to Yoon Suk-yeol's removal from office, it exposed lingering challenges in a country that has been one of the century's great democratic success stories. Using insights from the 2024 Berggruen Governance Index, we discuss South Korea's remarkable success and trajectory, and the underlying fragilities in the country that pose threats to democratic stability and governance. Indeed, South Korea has made a remarkable transition from being a war-torn, impoverished, and autocratic nation to one of economic growth and impressive democratization. We find that South Korea consistently ranks very high in democratic accountability, public goods provision, and state capacity. Yet, emerging and ongoing challenges polarize the country. South Korea is in a precarious geopolitical situation with its rival neighbor North Korea, and continues to encounter issues such as gender polarization, economic inequality, and overwork. Moving forward, South Korea must grapple with these societal divisions and the legacy from its authoritarian past. Yet, it has one of the most highly educated societies in the world, a civically engaged population that will be key to protecting the remarkable democracy and economic success that it has already achieved.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {Germany 2025: The Slow Decline in Governance Performance Erupts Into Crisis of Government as Geopolitics Worsen}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 12}, abstract = {This report examines the decline of Germany's economic and political stability over the past decade, emphasizing how structural challenges have eroded the country's once-sterling reputation for success and good governance. Although Germany was lauded throughout the 2010s for its robust economy and political cohesion under Chancellor Angela Merkel, recent developments—including a stagnating export sector, rising inequality, and political fragmentation—have sparked growing concerns. Drawing on data from the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI), the report shows that Germany's scores in democratic accountability, state capacity, and public goods provision, while still high by global standards, have gradually but consistently deteriorated since 2011. Building on these findings, the paper identifies four core drivers of this decline: inadequate investment in infrastructure, backlash against migration, foreign policy vulnerabilities, and the broader impact of the recent economic downturn. The report then connects these developments to the upcoming February 2025 elections, examining how Germany's governance and political-economic trends are likely to influence electoral behavior and shape the policy choices available to a likely CDU-led government.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {Balancing Progress and Democracy: Mexico's Governance Under Sheinbaum}, series = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, journal = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 9}, abstract = {With the election of Claudia Sheinbaum as Mexico's first female president on June 2, 2024, the country entered another six-year term under the leadership of the left-wing Morena Party. The previous president, Andr{\´e}s Manuel L{\´o}pez Obrador (AMLO), also of Morena, ruled from 2018 to 2024. This remarkable electoral outcome raises important questions about longer-term trends in Mexican governance and invites comparisons with neighboring countries. Using insights from the 2024 Berggruen Governance Index (BGI), we can look deeper at Mexico's trajectory. We find that, since 2000, Mexico has struggled to catch up with more developed nations like the U.S or Canada in the governance measures but still outpaces many other Latin American countries. The Morena administrations have embarked on ambitious programs of state building and economic nationalism, but these efforts have been criticized for contributing to democratic backsliding, particularly in the conservative U.S. press. Still, Mexico has achieved a solid degree of economic success, rebounding rapidly after the pandemic and GDP per capita increasing by over 50\% since AMLO took over in 2018. Much of this growth has been driven by traditionally poorer southern regions in the country. Despite some signs of success, one of Sheinbaum's key dilemmas will be to balance a more expanded and effective reach of the state—both geographically and economically—without undermining democratic norms. Given resistance to changes like judicial reform, resource nationalization, and use of the military for state-building projects, this will be a difficult balance to strike.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {Political Instability and Economic Development in the Sahel: Governance in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Sudan since 2000}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {19}, abstract = {The 2020s have been a troubled decade so far for many countries in the Sahel. Although a serious of coups and widespread political instability in the region have dominated headlines, findings from the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) indicate this grim picture may be incomplete. Indeed, the BGI finds some notable improvements, especially in public good provision, where some of the Sahel countries profiled in this report are among the most improved worldwide since 2000. However, these improvements rest on shaky ground, as countries in the region have long been trapped by unsustainable economic policies that focus almost exclusively on exploiting the natural resources of the region. This can lead to a vicious cycle of economic and institutional underdevelopment and political dysfunction, as extractive industries lead to elite capture, and uneven and unsustainable growth patterns, with high levels of corruption and violence among those competing for resources, reliance on overseas development aid, and eventually vulnerabilities to geopolitical influence. To address these interlocking weaknesses, this report suggests a dual economic strategy to form the foundations for more resilient institutions: 1) making more productive use of natural resources by building up capacity for higher in-country value-added through domesticating production chains; and 2) building high-tech partnerships with more developed countries to manage climate change and build sustainable agriculture. Based on such economic gains, greater fiscal and administrative state capacities could then be leveraged to create more durable governance institutions, further enabling more resilient development.}, language = {en} } @techreport{SaracenoAnheierKnudsen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Saraceno, Joseph C. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {Towards A New Global Contestation? Comparing the Governance Performance of G7 and BRICS+ Nations}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {18}, abstract = {The expansion of the BRICS to the BRICS+ group of countries potentially reflects a major geopolitical shift. This change indicates the possibility of rising tensions with the Group of Seven (G7), a collection of wealthy liberal democracies. The growing importance of BRICS and BRICS+ countries raises important questions about how their governance performance compares to G7 countries in terms of providing public goods such as social security, health and environmental protection. The report explores these questions with the help of the Berggruen Governance Index, which measures the governance performance of countries using three major dimensions and their relationship between each other: democratic accountability (quality of democracy), state capacity (quality of governance) and public goods provision (quality of life). In relation to the first question, the report finds that the G7 outperforms BRICS+ in all three governance dimensions. However, advances in the provision of public goods have been significant in some BRICS+ countries, even as state capacity and/or democratic accountability declined. This finding challenges the "autocratic fallacy," which states that authoritarian governance cannot effectively scale public goods, and that broad-based prosperity is correlated with adherence to democratic principles. It would further challenge the notion that democracy and wellbeing are the common telos of how countries develop over time. At the same time, results indicate that, rather than seeking fuller confrontation with G7 countries, most BRICS+ members engage in a mix of cooperation and contestation to gauge opportunities while mitigating risks in uncertain geopolitical conditions.}, language = {en} } @techreport{AnheierKnudsen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {Dominanz ohne Hegemonie? Der neue Wettstreit um das Soft-Power-Vakuum der USA}, publisher = {ifa (Institut f{\"u}r Auslandsbeziehungen e.V.)}, address = {Stuttgart}, doi = {10.17901/1588}, pages = {74}, abstract = {Mit der Umsetzung des Strategiepapiers Project 25 hat die zweite Trump-Re-gierung viele zentrale Elemente der Soft Power der USA zerschlagen. Seither nimmt die Soft Power des Landes stetig ab und hinterl{\"a}sst ein Vakuum im Zentrum der globalen Kulturdiplomatie. Gleichzeitig setzen die USA ihre be-tr{\"a}chtliche wirtschaftliche und milit{\"a}rische Kraft ein, um Verb{\"u}ndete wie Rivalen gleichermaßen unter Druck zu setzen, indem sie international einen zunehmend transaktionalen bilateralen Ansatz verfolgen - Dominanz ohne kulturelle Hegemonie. Im Zuge dieser Entwicklung sehen sich Europa - und insbesondere Deutschland - mit einer Reihe grundlegender Fragen in dieser ver{\"a}nderten geopolitischen und geo{\"o}konomischen Landschaft konfrontiert. Sie k{\"o}nnten die Außenkulturpolitik (ECP) nutzen, um universalistische libe-ral-demokratische Prinzipien voranzutreiben, und dazu eine zukunftsgerich-tete Vision mit einem eigenst{\"a}ndiges Narrativ entwickeln, das mit der eigenen wirtschaftlichen Gesamtleistung und Lebensqualit{\"a}t, mit technologischen Errungenschaften und einem stabilen Milit{\"a}rb{\"u}ndnis zu untermauern w{\"a}re. Doch ein derartiges Vorgehen verlangt drastische Entscheidungen und einen politischen Willen, der den k{\"u}nftigen Herausforderungen gerecht wird. Wenn es Europa und Deutschland nicht gelingt, diese Bew{\"a}hrungsproben zu meistern, werden sie, als Mittelm{\"a}chte, zunehmend zum Spielball der USA und Chinas.}, language = {de} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {Development over Democracy? Economic Growth and Political Repression in Bangladesh}, series = {2024 Berggruen Government Index}, journal = {2024 Berggruen Government Index}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 8}, abstract = {This election brief examines the critical juncture facing Bangladesh as it approaches the February 12, 2026, general election and concurrent referendum on the "July Charter." Following the 2024 ouster of Sheikh Hasina and the subsequent transition to an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh seeks to reverse a two-decade trend of democratic backsliding and stagnant state capacity. Utilizing data from the Berggruen Governance Index, this analysis highlights a striking paradox: while democratic accountability and state capacity have significantly withered since 2000, public goods provision has reached record highs, driven by a highly concentrated, export-oriented textile model and growing public debt. The report evaluates the sustainability of this "authoritarian developmentalism" in a deteriorating international environment characterized by U.S. protectionism and regional instability. It concludes that while the proposed constitutional reforms offer a framework for long-term stability, Bangladesh's path to reconciling economic growth with democratic liberty remains precarious, requiring a departure from historical East Asian developmental models to suit a more fragmented geopolitical reality.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {Steadying the Democratic Ship — or Sinking it? Economic Stagnation and Political Dysfunction in Italy}, series = {2024 Berggruen Government Index}, journal = {2024 Berggruen Government Index}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 10}, abstract = {The combination of a sclerotic economy and a volatile political climate has defined Italy for decades. With far-right leader Giorgia Meloni's election as prime minister in September 2022, it remains to be seen whether the country can finally break this cycle. Although her government has overseen modest economic growth and relative political stability—and Meloni remains popular—her controversial constitutional reforms and the June 2025 referenda pose significant tests. Those votes, held alongside local elections, address both citizenship liberalization and stronger workers' rights. While they will reveal public sentiment about the current government, neither can resolve Italy's deeper, long-term problems. To do so, policymakers must tackle high regional disparities, extreme wealth and inheritance inequality, and persistently low productivity. Investments and reforms aimed at bringing Italy's state capacity in line with its Western European peers are essential to address these structural issues.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {Right-wing Populism, the State, and Democracy: Governance Performance \& the 2024 European Parliament Elections}, series = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, journal = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 11}, abstract = {Right-wing parties are expected to gain substantially in the 2024 European Parliament elections. Comparing the results of the Berggruen Governance Index with current electoral predictions shows that the lingering effects of the global financial crisis and Eurocrisis, in particular prolonged budget cuts and other austerity measures, have contributed to worsening state capacity and weakening democratic accountability in many European countries. This led to a growing sense of insecurity and build-up of grievances among those population groups most affected by austerity measures. Far-right parties opportunistically exploited these sentiments, especially by linking them to anxieties around migration. In this way, actual shortages in fields like housing—which are largely derived from underinvestment and austerity—are dubiously attributed to migrants. As a result, right-wing parties have been able to use this simplistic scapegoat in order to appeal to a wide range of resentments, which stem largely from a decaying institutional environment, rather than outside sources. What can be done to reverse these dynamics? Changes in governance performance tend to be slow moving, and corrective action may take some time to bear fruit. The analysis suggests that crisis-driven austerity policies must stop as they contribute to weaker institutions and increasing polarization in the medium to long term. The rise of the far right is thus the collective result of misguided policies by governments in power over the last decade or so. They now must correct them and prove that they can proactively anticipate as well as solve public problems such as social and regional inequalities. For this to happen, public sector reforms and strategic investments in state capacity and democratic resilience are urgently needed.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {Democratic distortions and a struggling state: The United States on the eve of the 2024 presidential election}, series = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, journal = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 10}, abstract = {During election season, most U.S. media coverage centers on a "horse race" analysis of public opinion and the latest polling. However, understanding the broader context of governance provides a more comprehensive view of the factors that shape the U.S. political landscape. The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election will undoubtedly shape domestic policies and influence the country's role on the world stage, but it is crucial to recognize that the challenges facing its political system are structural and have developed over many years. In this spirit, this report discusses developments in U.S. governance since 2000, focusing on the metrics of democratic accountability, state capacity, and public goods provision from the Berggruen Governance Index. It finds that democratic accountability — particularly electoral accountability—and state capacity have experienced sharp declines since 2015, limiting the responsiveness and effectiveness of government. Although public goods have remained constant, this occurs in the context of rising public debt and at lower levels in comparison to other advanced democracies. Especially in swing states, there are sharp declines in democratic accountability, creating significant risks for the integrity of the U.S. election where it matters most. We conclude by speculating how different outcomes in the U.S. election might affect the future of U.S. governance across all three dimensions, projecting that a Harris victory would likely be more beneficial across all three categories. However, Harris will face severe challenges considering the structural constraints and deficiencies of the U.S. system.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {Tunisia's Autocratic Resurgence: Political Reforms Without Economic Progress Threatens Democracy}, series = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, journal = {2024 Berggruen Governance Index}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 8}, abstract = {This report examines Tunisia's recent democratic trajectory ahead of the October 2024 presidential elections. Following the 2010 Jasmine Revolution, findings from the 2024 Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) demonstrate dramatic improvements in democratic accountability and state capacity — followed by a rapid decline in the early 2020s. We suggest the reason for the non-durability of these gains may be due to Tunisia's failure to achieve substantial economic growth or improvements in public goods provision. This economic stagnation undermined the democratic advancements, leading to political dysfunction and a regression into authoritarianism under President Ka{\"i}s Sa{\"i}ed. Using the Tunisian example of how economic progress contributed to rising political unrest in spite of greater democratic accountability, it then explores theoretical perspectives on why democracies at lower development levels may struggle economically, citing factors like immediate consumption pressures, policy uncertainty, and labor rights affecting foreign investment. The upcoming October 2024 elections are assessed, with a cautious outlook on their potential to reverse authoritarian trends. The report concludes by emphasizing the critical lesson from Tunisia's experience: political reforms must be coupled with tangible economic improvements to ensure the consolidation and longevity of democratic governance.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {The Politics of Debt in Cameroon, Malawi, Ivory Coast, the Central African Republic, and Tanzania; the Politics of Debt}, series = {2024 Berggruen Government Index}, journal = {2024 Berggruen Government Index}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 10}, abstract = {In 2025, Cameroon, Malawi, Ivory Coast, Tanzania, and the Central African Republic held (or will hold) national elections. Across these cases, electoral processes were marked by accusations of fraud, political repression, and in some instances violent crackdowns, underscoring persistent weaknesses in democratic accountability and overall governance challenges. These political dynamics unfold within a broader postcolonial context of poverty, limited sovereignty, and heavy reliance on external financing. Despite these constraints, all five countries have recorded notable improvements in public goods provision since 2000, according to the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI). Although this reflects gains in areas such as infrastructure and social services, these advances have coincided with stagnation or decline in state capacity and democratic institutions. Rising public debt—driven by multilateral and Chinese lending—has enabled short-term development but increasingly constrains fiscal and political space. The report argues that without substantial improvements in state capacity, these countries risk remaining trapped in a vicious cycle of debt, weak governance, and political instability.}, language = {en} } @techreport{AnheierLangKnudsen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Lang, Markus and Knudsen, Edward L.}, title = {Toward a New Understanding of Governance: The 2022 Berggruen Governance Index}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {103}, abstract = {THE BERGGRUEN GOVERNANCE INDEX PROJECT (BGI) analyzes the relationship between democratic accountability, state capacity and the provision of public goods. It builds upon prior work that examined the impact of governance and democracy on the quality of life. It is a collaborative project between the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs and the Berggruen Institute.}, language = {en} } @techreport{AnheierKnudsenYangetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Knudsen, Edward L. and Yang, Yuqing and Fr{\"o}hlich, Christian}, title = {Geopolitics and Domestic Governance Performance: Four Global Powers in a Changing World Order}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {15}, abstract = {What is the link between the domestic governance performance of global powers and their geopolitical positioning and potential? Using data from the 2022 Berggruen Governance Index, this brief looks at the United States, China, Russia, and the EU5 (i.e., the five largest EU economies France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain) in the context of four different future scenarios. It finds strikingly different trajectories for each global power, with distinct challenges and opportunities. Overall, the United States and the EU are more likely to maintain, even strengthen their relative geopolitical position, whereas China faces significant uncertainties due to domestic governance problems. Russia, suffering from low state capacities and unable to serve its predatory elites, is likely to enter a period of decline and loss of status.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {Economic Progress or Democratic Distress? Indonesia's Governance Challenges}, series = {2024 Berggruen Government Index}, journal = {2024 Berggruen Government Index}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 11}, abstract = {As the world's third-largest democracy, with the largest Muslim population, and consisting of over 17,000 islands, Indonesia faces complex governance challenges. As indicated by the 2024 Berggruen Governance Index, the country reveals a decline in democratic accountability and stagnant state capacity, while its public goods provision has improved thanks to revenue from its extractive industries. Despite having experienced high economic growth in recent years, high levels of inequality linger, and significant regional discrepancies in living standards persist. Politically, authoritarian tendencies under President Prabowo Subianto threaten the fragile democratic gains of previous decades. To address this, Indonesia will have to continue its mostly successful economic policies while seeking to distribute gains more equitably and increase regional convergence through investments and decentralization.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KnudsenAnheierSaraceno, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Knudsen, Edward L. and Anheier, Helmut K. and Saraceno, Joseph C.}, title = {A Remedy for 'Dutch Disease'? Natural Resources and Political-Economic Development in Norway.}, series = {2024 Berggruen Government Index}, journal = {2024 Berggruen Government Index}, publisher = {UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs}, address = {Los Angeles}, pages = {iii, 9}, abstract = {Ahead of parliamentary elections on September 8th, what is the state of Norway's democracy, government, and economy? For decades, Norway has defied paradoxical misfortunates of ample natural resources ("Dutch Disease"), instead investing its natural riches into building a highly representative political system and robust state. In order to investigate how Norway has defied the conventional "resource curse" narrative, this report— with evidence from the 2024 Berggruen Governance Index— explores the history of Norway and examines current political challenges that could threaten to disrupt its relatively secure and stable status quo. We find that Norway has built its success so through a combination of historical processes which facilitated early democratization, important cultural dynamics that link representation and modernization, and deliberate policy choices that channeled resource rents into long-term investments rather than short-term political gains. Although emerging social fractures could pose a risk to its fortunate situation, Norway's wealth and strong institutions leave it in a better place to combat political dysfunction and economic stagnation than many other developed countries.}, language = {en} }