@article{KayserAbouChadi, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Abou-Chadi, Tarik}, title = {It's Not Easy Being Green: Why Voters Punish Parties for Environmental Policies in Downturns}, series = {Electoral Studies}, volume = {45}, journal = {Electoral Studies}, doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2016.10.009}, pages = {201 -- 207}, abstract = {Recent scholarship asserts the existence of "luxury goods voting" arguing that voters penalize parties associated with post-material issues or those with long-run payoffs during economic downturns. We test this arguments here using data from four election studies in Denmark and Germany that explicitly ask respondents to rate parties on one particular luxury goods issue: protection of the environment. Voters who perceive the economy as weak indeed punish governing parties more severely when they associate them with environmental policies; conversely, a green reputation when the economy is expanding garners left-wing parties higher vote probabilities. Right-wing governing parties fare similarly, benefitting from those who perceive them as green when the economy is hale, albeit only converging to the vote probabilities awarded from voters who see them as less green when the economy sours.}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A L{\"a}nder-based forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election}, series = {Political Science \& Politics}, volume = {50}, journal = {Political Science \& Politics}, number = {3}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, address = {Cambridge}, issn = {1049-0965}, doi = {10.1017/S1049096517000427}, pages = {689 -- 692}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Eine l{\"a}nderbasierte Prognose zur Bundestagswahl 2017}, series = {Politische Vierteljahresschrift}, journal = {Politische Vierteljahresschrift}, number = {58(3)}, issn = {0032-3470}, doi = {10.5771/0032-3470-2017-3-407}, pages = {407 -- 417}, abstract = {When elections are distant, polls are poor predictors. Too few voters are paying attention and too much can change before election day. Structural models can establish baseline expectations but suffer from high uncertainty and underspecification imposed by small samples. We present an early forecast of the 2017 Bundestag election results for individual parties that leverages economic and political data as well as state parliament (Landtag) election results in the German states (L{\"a}nder) to sidestep these shortcomings. A linear random effects model provides our estimates. L{\"a}nder elections are dispersed over the calendar and offer the advantage of capturing both actual voter preferences and new political issues. We argue that this approach offers a promising method for early forecasts when polls are not informative.}, language = {de} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A Laender-Based Forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election}, series = {PS: Political Science \& Politics}, volume = {50}, journal = {PS: Political Science \& Politics}, number = {3}, doi = {10.1017/S1049096517000427}, pages = {689 -- 692}, language = {en} }