@article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 Bundestag Election}, series = {German Politics}, volume = {25}, journal = {German Politics}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1080/09644008.2015.1129531}, pages = {106 -- 130}, abstract = {Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany ('benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe - France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election.}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLindstaedt, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Lindst{\"a}dt, Ren{\´e}}, title = {A Cross-National Measure of Electoral Competitiveness}, series = {Political Analysis}, volume = {23}, journal = {Political Analysis}, number = {2}, issn = {1047-1987}, doi = {10.1093/pan/mpv001}, pages = {242 -- 253}, language = {en} } @article{KayserPeress, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Peress, Michael}, title = {Benchmarking across Borders: Electoral Accountability and the Necessity of Comparison}, series = {American Political Science Review}, volume = {106}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, number = {3}, issn = {1537-5943}, doi = {10.1017/S0003055412000275}, pages = {661 -- 684}, language = {en} } @incollection{Kayser, author = {Kayser, Mark A.}, title = {Measuring Governance: An Assessment of the Research Challenges}, series = {Governance Indicators}, booktitle = {Governance Indicators}, editor = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Haber, Matthias and Kayser, Mark A.}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, address = {Oxford}, isbn = {9780198817062}, doi = {10.1093/oso/9780198817062.003.0011}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {255 -- 269}, language = {en} } @incollection{KayserPeress, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Peress, Michael}, title = {The Buck Stops over There? Globalization and Electoral Accountability}, series = {Globalization and Domestic Politics}, booktitle = {Globalization and Domestic Politics}, editor = {Vowles, Jack and Xezonakis, Georgios}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, address = {Oxford}, isbn = {978-0-19-875798-6}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {89 -- 112}, language = {en} } @incollection{Kayser, author = {Kayser, Mark A.}, title = {The Elusive Economic Vote}, series = {Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in a Changing World}, booktitle = {Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in a Changing World}, editor = {LeDuc, Lawrence and Niemi, Richard G. and Norris, Pippa}, publisher = {Sage}, address = {Thousand Oaks, CA}, doi = {10.4135/9781473921108.n7}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {112 -- 132}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A L{\"a}nder-based forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election}, series = {Political Science \& Politics}, volume = {50}, journal = {Political Science \& Politics}, number = {3}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, address = {Cambridge}, issn = {1049-0965}, doi = {10.1017/S1049096517000427}, pages = {689 -- 692}, language = {en} } @article{KayserWlezien, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Wlezien, Christopher}, title = {Performance Pressure: Patterns of Partisanship and the Economic Vote}, series = {European Journal of Political Research}, volume = {50}, journal = {European Journal of Political Research}, number = {May 2011}, edition = {3}, publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons}, doi = {10.1111/j.1475-6765.2010.01934.x}, pages = {365 -- 394}, language = {en} } @incollection{KayserStanig, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Stanig, Piero}, title = {Governance Indicators: Some Proposals}, series = {Governance Challenges and Innovations: Financial and Fiscal Governance}, booktitle = {Governance Challenges and Innovations: Financial and Fiscal Governance}, editor = {Anheier, Helmut K.}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, address = {Oxford}, isbn = {9780199674930}, doi = {10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199674930.001.0001}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {189 -- 220}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A far-right party just won seats in three German state parliaments. Here's why.}, series = {The Washington Post}, journal = {The Washington Post}, language = {en} }