@article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Vintage errors: do real-time economic data improve election forecasts?}, series = {Research and Politics}, volume = {2}, journal = {Research and Politics}, number = {3}, publisher = {Sage}, address = {London [u.a.]}, issn = {2053-1680}, doi = {10.1177/2053168015589624}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-16321}, pages = {1 -- 11}, abstract = {Economic performance is a key component of most election forecasts. When fitting models, however, most forecasters unwittingly assume that the actual state of the economy, a state best estimated by the multiple periodic revisions to official macroeconomic statistics, drives voter behavior. The difference in macroeconomic estimates between revised and original data vintages can be substantial, commonly over 100\% (two-fold) for economic growth estimates, making the choice of which data release to use important for the predictive validity of a model. We systematically compare the predictions of four forecasting models for numerous US presidential elections using real-time and vintage data. We find that newer data are not better data for election forecasting: forecasting error increases with data revisions. This result suggests that voter perceptions of economic growth are influenced more by media reports about the economy, which are based on initial economic estimates, than by the actual state of the economy.}, language = {en} } @incollection{AnheierStanigKayser, author = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Stanig, Piero and Kayser, Mark A.}, title = {Introducing a New Generation of Governance Indicators}, series = {The Governance Report 2013}, booktitle = {The Governance Report 2013}, publisher = {Oxford Univ.Press}, address = {Oxford}, isbn = {978-0-19-967442-8}, pages = {117 -- 148}, abstract = {This Report is about the state of governance. Few would doubt that the conditions of governance have changed — and continue to change — as the early 21st century seems to enter a period of profound uncertainty. Yet, at the same time, the world seems alive with a cacophony of approaches — old and new — on how to improve governance and, ultimately, policy outcomes. This Report — the first in a series of annual editions produced by the Hertie School of Governance — seeks to address the implications of the current state of the world in terms of "good governance", that is, the effective, efficient, and reliable set of legitimate institutions and actors dedicated to dealing with matters of public concern, be it in the field of financial markets, health care, security, or migration, and across local, national, and international levels. Following an introduction that offers a framework of basic concepts and models, The Governance Report 2013 then goes on to explore a number of global challenges and the reasons behind seemingly lacklustre responses and highlight the need for responsible sovereignty; examine in depth the challenges of financial and fiscal governance with a focus on the trade-offs and ways to address them; analyse key governance innovations and their potential for success; and assess existing indicators of governance, while proposing a new framework for collecting, interpreting, and applying governance-related information. The findings lead to a set of concrete proposals on the way ahead.(About the Book)}, language = {en} } @article{KayserAbouChadi, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Abou-Chadi, Tarik}, title = {It's Not Easy Being Green: Why Voters Punish Parties for Environmental Policies in Downturns}, series = {Electoral Studies}, volume = {45}, journal = {Electoral Studies}, doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2016.10.009}, pages = {201 -- 207}, abstract = {Recent scholarship asserts the existence of "luxury goods voting" arguing that voters penalize parties associated with post-material issues or those with long-run payoffs during economic downturns. We test this arguments here using data from four election studies in Denmark and Germany that explicitly ask respondents to rate parties on one particular luxury goods issue: protection of the environment. Voters who perceive the economy as weak indeed punish governing parties more severely when they associate them with environmental policies; conversely, a green reputation when the economy is expanding garners left-wing parties higher vote probabilities. Right-wing governing parties fare similarly, benefitting from those who perceive them as green when the economy is hale, albeit only converging to the vote probabilities awarded from voters who see them as less green when the economy sours.}, language = {en} } @article{KayserHouleXiang, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Houle, Christian and Xiang, Jun}, title = {Diffusion or Confusion? Clustered Shocks and the Conditional Diffusion of Democracy}, series = {International Organization}, volume = {70}, journal = {International Organization}, number = {4}, doi = {10.1017/S002081831600028X}, pages = {687 -- 726}, abstract = {Scholars, observing clustering in transitions to democracy, argue that democratization diffuses across borders as citizens in autocracies demand the same reforms they witness in neighboring states. We disagree. This article demonstrates that diffusion plays only a highly conditional role in democratization. We advance and test an alternative two-step theory of clustered democratization: (1) economic and international political shocks, which are clustered spatially and temporally, induce the breakdown of authoritarian regimes; then (2) democratic diffusion, in turn, influences whether a fallen dictatorship will be replaced by a democracy or a new autocracy. Diffusion, despite playing an important role, is insufficient to explain the clustering of transitions. Using data on 125 autocracies from 1875 to 2004, we show that economic crises trigger authoritarian breakdowns, while diffusion influences whether the new regime is democratic or authoritarian.}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 Bundestag Election}, series = {German Politics}, volume = {25}, journal = {German Politics}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1080/09644008.2015.1129531}, pages = {106 -- 130}, abstract = {Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany ('benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe - France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election.}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLindstaedt, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Lindst{\"a}dt, Ren{\´e}}, title = {A Cross-National Measure of Electoral Competitiveness}, series = {Political Analysis}, volume = {23}, journal = {Political Analysis}, number = {2}, issn = {1047-1987}, doi = {10.1093/pan/mpv001}, pages = {242 -- 253}, language = {en} } @article{KayserPeress, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Peress, Michael}, title = {Benchmarking across Borders: Electoral Accountability and the Necessity of Comparison}, series = {American Political Science Review}, volume = {106}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, number = {3}, issn = {1537-5943}, doi = {10.1017/S0003055412000275}, pages = {661 -- 684}, language = {en} } @incollection{Kayser, author = {Kayser, Mark A.}, title = {Measuring Governance: An Assessment of the Research Challenges}, series = {Governance Indicators}, booktitle = {Governance Indicators}, editor = {Anheier, Helmut K. and Haber, Matthias and Kayser, Mark A.}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, address = {Oxford}, isbn = {9780198817062}, doi = {10.1093/oso/9780198817062.003.0011}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {255 -- 269}, language = {en} } @incollection{KayserPeress, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Peress, Michael}, title = {The Buck Stops over There? Globalization and Electoral Accountability}, series = {Globalization and Domestic Politics}, booktitle = {Globalization and Domestic Politics}, editor = {Vowles, Jack and Xezonakis, Georgios}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, address = {Oxford}, isbn = {978-0-19-875798-6}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {89 -- 112}, language = {en} } @incollection{Kayser, author = {Kayser, Mark A.}, title = {The Elusive Economic Vote}, series = {Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in a Changing World}, booktitle = {Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in a Changing World}, editor = {LeDuc, Lawrence and Niemi, Richard G. and Norris, Pippa}, publisher = {Sage}, address = {Thousand Oaks, CA}, doi = {10.4135/9781473921108.n7}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {112 -- 132}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A L{\"a}nder-based forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election}, series = {Political Science \& Politics}, volume = {50}, journal = {Political Science \& Politics}, number = {3}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, address = {Cambridge}, issn = {1049-0965}, doi = {10.1017/S1049096517000427}, pages = {689 -- 692}, language = {en} } @article{KayserWlezien, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Wlezien, Christopher}, title = {Performance Pressure: Patterns of Partisanship and the Economic Vote}, series = {European Journal of Political Research}, volume = {50}, journal = {European Journal of Political Research}, number = {May 2011}, edition = {3}, publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons}, doi = {10.1111/j.1475-6765.2010.01934.x}, pages = {365 -- 394}, language = {en} } @incollection{KayserStanig, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Stanig, Piero}, title = {Governance Indicators: Some Proposals}, series = {Governance Challenges and Innovations: Financial and Fiscal Governance}, booktitle = {Governance Challenges and Innovations: Financial and Fiscal Governance}, editor = {Anheier, Helmut K.}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, address = {Oxford}, isbn = {9780199674930}, doi = {10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199674930.001.0001}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {189 -- 220}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A far-right party just won seats in three German state parliaments. Here's why.}, series = {The Washington Post}, journal = {The Washington Post}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Voters seem to respond to the "reported" rather than to the "real" economy}, series = {Democratic Audit UK (London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Public Policy Group) \& Homepage of the Hertie School of Governance}, journal = {Democratic Audit UK (London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Public Policy Group) \& Homepage of the Hertie School of Governance}, language = {en} } @article{Kayser, author = {Kayser, Mark A.}, title = {Partisan Waves: International Business Cycles and Electoral Choice}, series = {American Journal of Political Science}, volume = {53}, journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, number = {October 2009}, edition = {4}, publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons}, doi = {10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00410.x}, pages = {950 -- 970}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A Benchmarking Forecasting the 2013 Election - the Post-Mortem Analysis}, series = {EU Political Economy Bulletin}, journal = {EU Political Economy Bulletin}, number = {Winter 2014}, edition = {17}, publisher = {European Union Studies Association, EU Political Economy Interest Section}, address = {Pittsburgh}, pages = {9 -- 12}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A Benchmarking Forecast of the 2013 Bundestag Election}, language = {en} } @article{KayserWegrich, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Wegrich, Kai}, title = {Von Unis Gnaden: Ein Deutsches Status Symbol}, series = {The European Magazine}, journal = {The European Magazine}, publisher = {Weimer Media Group}, address = {M{\"u}nchen}, language = {de} } @article{KayserPeress, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Peress, Michael}, title = {Benchmarking across Borders: An Update and Response}, series = {British Journal of Political Science}, volume = {X}, journal = {British Journal of Political Science}, doi = {10.1017/S0007123418000625}, pages = {1 -- 4}, abstract = {Arel-Bundock, Blais and Dassonneville (2018, ABD hereafter) offer an unusual critique of our 12 article, Benchmarking across Borders. They find no methodological flaws, produce identical 13 empirical results and concede that their proposed specification (Model 5) is mathematically 14 identical to that used in Kayser and Peress (2012, KP hereafter). ABD make two claims: (1) that 15 their preferred specification is an innovation that improves interpretation and (2) that the 16 empirical evidence presented in KP does not support benchmarking. The first is unpersuasive 17 and the second depends on a selective reading of the evidence. We address these issues below and 18 update the individual-level dataset from KP to increase statistical power, finding additional 19 evidence of benchmarking.}, language = {en} }