@article{HirthUeckerdtEdenhofer, author = {Hirth, Lion and Ueckerdt, Falko and Edenhofer, Ottmar}, title = {Why Wind is not Coal: On the Economics of Electricity Generation}, series = {The Energy Journal}, volume = {37}, journal = {The Energy Journal}, number = {3}, issn = {1944-9089}, doi = {10.5547/01956574.37.3.lhir}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-22828}, pages = {1 -- 27}, abstract = {Electricity is a paradoxical economic good: it is highly homogeneous and heterogeneous at the same time. Electricity prices vary dramatically between moments in time, between location, and according to lead-time between contract and delivery. This three-dimensional heterogeneity has implication for the economic assessment of power generation technologies: different technologies, such as coal-fired plants and wind turbines, produce electricity that has, on average, a different economic value. Several tools that are used to evaluate generators in practice ignore these value differences, including "levelized electricity costs", "grid parity", and simple macroeconomic models. This paper provides a rigorous and general discussion of heterogeneity and its implications for the economic assessment of electricity generating technologies. It shows that these tools are biased, specifically, they tend to favor wind and solar power over dispatchable generators where these renewable generators have a high market share. A literature review shows that, at a wind market share of 30-40\%, the value of a megawatt-hour of electricity from a wind turbine can be 20-50\% lower than the value of one megawatt-hour as demanded by consumers. We introduce "System LCOE" as one way of comparing generation technologies economically.}, language = {en} } @article{HirthSchlandt, author = {Hirth, Lion and Schlandt, Jakob}, title = {{\"U}bertragungsnetzbetreiber erwarten massiven Wertverlust f{\"u}r Solarstrom}, series = {Phasenpr{\"u}fer}, journal = {Phasenpr{\"u}fer}, language = {de} } @article{Hirth, author = {Hirth, Lion}, title = {What caused the drop of European electricity prices? A factor decomposition analysis}, series = {The Energy Journal}, volume = {39}, journal = {The Energy Journal}, number = {1}, issn = {0195-6574}, doi = {10.5547/01956574.39.1.lhir}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-23227}, pages = {143 -- 157}, abstract = {European wholesale electricity prices have dropped by early two thirds since their all-time high around 2008. Different factors have been blamed, or praised, for having caused the price slump: the expansion of renewable energy; the near-collapse of the European emissions trading scheme; over-optimistic power plant investments; a decline in final electricity consumption; and cheap coal and natural gas. This ex-post study of European electricity markets from 2008 to 2015 uses a fundamental power market model to quantify their individual contributions on day-ahead prices. The two countries we study in detail, Germany and Sweden,differ significantly: fuel and CO2 prices were important price drivers in Germany, but in Sweden it was electricity demand. This difference is explained by the nature of the hydro-dominate Nordic electricity system. In both countries, however, the single largest factor depressing prices was the expansion of renewable energy. At the same time, Germany's nuclear phase-out had an upward effect on prices. If one defines the Energiewende as the combination of these two policies, its net effect on power prices was negligible.}, language = {en} } @article{NahmmacherSchmidHirthetal., author = {Nahmmacher, Paul and Schmid, Eva and Hirth, Lion and Knopf, Brigitte}, title = {Carpe diem: A novel approach to select representative days for long-term power system modeling}, series = {Energy}, volume = {112}, journal = {Energy}, issn = {0360-5442}, doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2016.06.081}, pages = {430 -- 442}, abstract = {In order to explore scenarios on the future of power systems, a variety of numerical models have been developed. As the share of variable renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar, is projected to significantly increase, accounting for their temporal and spatial variability becomes ever more important in developing sound long-term scenarios. Computational restrictions prevent many long-term power system models being developed with an hourly resolution; instead they use time slices that aggregate periods with similar load and renewable electricity generation levels. There is to date no reproducible and validated method to derive and select time slices for power system models with multiple fluctuating time series. In this paper, we present a novel and effective method that is easily applied to input data for all kinds of power system models. We utilize this procedure in the long-term power system model LIMES-EU and show that a small number of representative days developed in this way are sufficient to reflect the characteristic fluctuations of the input data. Alongside a validation of the method, we discuss the conditions under which seasonal differentiation, and the use of representative weeks instead of days, is necessary.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Hirth, author = {Hirth, Lion}, title = {The Economics of Wind and Solar Variability - How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power affects their Marginal Value, Optimal Deployment, and Integration Costs}, publisher = {Technical University of Berlin}, address = {Berlin}, doi = {10.14279/depositonce-4291}, language = {en} } @article{HirthZiegenhagen, author = {Hirth, Lion and Ziegenhagen, Inka}, title = {Wind, Sonne, und Regelleistung}, series = {Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen : et}, journal = {Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen : et}, number = {10}, edition = {13}, publisher = {EW Medien und Kongresse GmbH}, address = {Frankfurt am Main}, issn = {0013-743X - 0720-6240}, pages = {59}, language = {de} } @incollection{HirthUeckerdt, author = {Hirth, Lion and Ueckerdt, Falko}, title = {The Decreasing Market Value of Variable Renewables: Integration Options and Deadlocks}, series = {Transition to Renewable Energy Systems}, booktitle = {Transition to Renewable Energy Systems}, editor = {Stolten, Detlef and Scherer, Viktor}, publisher = {Wiley VCH}, address = {Oxford}, isbn = {978-3527332397}, doi = {10.1002/9783527673872.ch6}, pages = {75 -- 92}, language = {en} } @article{Hirth, author = {Hirth, Lion}, title = {Die {\"O}konomie der Energiewende}, series = {Phasenpr{\"u}fer}, journal = {Phasenpr{\"u}fer}, language = {de} } @article{Hirth, author = {Hirth, Lion}, title = {Das Ende der Grundlast}, series = {Phasenpr{\"u}fer}, journal = {Phasenpr{\"u}fer}, language = {de} } @article{WeberHirth, author = {Weber, Christoph and Hirth, Lion}, title = {Jenseits des S{\"u}ndenbocks Erneuerbare: Was hat den Verfall des B{\"o}rsenstrompreises wirklich verursacht?}, series = {Phasenpr{\"u}fer}, journal = {Phasenpr{\"u}fer}, language = {de} } @article{HirthMuehlenpfordtBulkeley, author = {Hirth, Lion and M{\"u}hlenpfordt, Jonathan and Bulkeley, Marisa}, title = {The ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. An assessment of Europe's most ambitious electricity data platform}, series = {Applied Energy}, volume = {225}, journal = {Applied Energy}, issn = {0306-2619}, doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.04.048}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-28171}, pages = {1054 -- 1067}, abstract = {Applied power system research is data intensive, often requiring hour-by-hour data on electricity consumption and generation as well as detailed information about technical and cost parameters of power stations. The European Union obliges firms to publish much of this information on a common website, the "ENTSO-E Transparency Platform" operated by the association of transmission system operators. It is possibly the most ambitious platform for power system data globally. However, anecdotal evidence from users indicates significant shortcomings regarding data quality and usability. This paper provides an introduction to and an assessment of the Transparency Platform, helping researchers to use it more efficiently and to judge data quality more rigorously.}, language = {en} } @article{StefanHirthSchlechtetal, author = {Stefan, Pfenninger and Hirth, Lion and Schlecht, et. al., Ingmar}, title = {Opening the black box of energy modelling: Strategies and lessons learned}, series = {Energy Strategy Reviews}, volume = {19}, journal = {Energy Strategy Reviews}, doi = {10.1016/j.esr.2017.12.002}, pages = {63 -- 71}, abstract = {The global energy system is undergoing a major transition, and in energy planning and decision-making across governments, industry and academia, models play a crucial role. Because of their policy relevance and contested nature, the transparency and open availability of energy models and data are of particular importance. Here we provide a practical how-to guide based on the collective experience of members of the Open Energy Modelling Initiative (Openmod). We discuss key steps to consider when opening code and data, including determining intellectual property ownership, choosing a licence and appropriate modelling languages, distributing code and data, and providing support and building communities. After illustrating these decisions with examples and lessons learned from the community, we conclude that even though individual researchers' choices are important, institutional changes are still also necessary for more openness and transparency in energy research.}, language = {en} }