@techreport{FahlHufendiekKitteletal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Fahl, Ulrich and Hufendiek, Kai and Kittel, Lena and Siegle, Jonathan and Pahle, Michael and aus dem Moore, Nils and Gruhl, Henri and Nysten, Jana and Kahl, Hartmut and G{\"o}rlach, Benjamin and Sach, Thobias and Schimmel, Matthias and K{\"u}hner, Ann-Kathrin}, title = {Industriewende: Wettbewerbseffekte und Carbon Leakage. Neue Politikmaßnahmen im Zuge des Europ{\"a}ischen Green Deal. Ein Ariadne-Kurzdossier.}, pages = {1-25}, language = {de} } @techreport{EdmondsonFlachslandausdemMooreetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Edmondson, Duncan and Flachsland, Christian and aus dem Moore, Nils and Koch, Nicolas and Koller, Florian and Gruhl, Henri and Brehm, Johannes and Levi, Sebastian}, title = {Bewertung klimapolitischer Instrumentenmix-Pfade - Eine Anwendung auf leichte Nutzfahrzeuge in Deutschland}, publisher = {Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne}, address = {Potsdam}, pages = {156}, language = {de} } @article{ausdemMooreBrehmGruhl, author = {aus dem Moore, Nils and Brehm, Johannes and Gruhl, Henri}, title = {Driving innovation? Carbon tax effects in the Swedish transport sector}, series = {Journal of Public Economics}, volume = {248}, journal = {Journal of Public Economics}, issn = {0047-2727}, doi = {10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105444}, abstract = {Does a carbon tax stimulate low-carbon innovation in the transport sector? We exploit an environmental tax reform in Sweden that introduced both a carbon and a value-added tax on transport fuels. Synthetic control estimates consistently find that the tax reform caused large and significant increases in low-carbon patents. We provide suggestive evidence that the carbon tax drives the effect while fuel price changes with comparable magnitude did not significantly affect low-carbon innovation. Our findings suggest that salient carbon prices may foster low-carbon innovation more effectively than fuel price elasticity estimates suggest.}, language = {en} } @article{GruhlBrehmGhoshetal., author = {Gruhl, Henri and Brehm, Johannes and Ghosh, Arijit and Breidenbach, Philipp and aus dem Moore, Nils}, title = {Adjusting to the New Normal: River Flood Risk and the Real Estate Market}, series = {Environmental and Resource Economics}, journal = {Environmental and Resource Economics}, doi = {10.1007/s10640-025-00995-x}, abstract = {Do individuals learn from salient river floods and update their risk perceptions accordingly? We exploit the Western European flood in 2021 to estimate changes in property values across German flood risk regions. Flood-prone areas in proximity to the flood or with higher climate change beliefs experience housing price declines, while we observe no statistically significant effects in other flood risk zones. Our results imply that flood risk discounts in the housing market will not adjust uniformly, which may result in suboptimal capital allocation in areas at risk of future flooding.}, language = {en} } @article{BrehmGruhl, author = {Brehm, Johannes and Gruhl, Henri}, title = {Leveraging machine learning to understand opposition to environmental tax increases across countries and over time}, series = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {19}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, number = {8}, publisher = {IOP Publishing}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ad5d0a}, abstract = {Taxes targeting fuel, road usage, or carbon emissions for environmental protection often face public opposition. Can widely accessible machine learning methods aid in predicting and understanding opposition to environmental taxes? This study uses the random forest algorithm to predict opposition to increased environmental taxes based on 41 theoretically relevant respondent characteristics. Drawing on nationally representative surveys, we predict individual tax opposition across 28 countries in 2010 and 2020 (N = 70 710). Personal values and environmental evaluations tend to be more influential than demographics in predicting tax opposition, with key variables differing between countries and over time. A lack of commitment to pro-environmental behavior is the most important predictor in emerging economies. Conversely, concerns about environmental issues and prioritization of jobs and prices are influential in high-income countries, gaining prominence over the previous decade. Policymakers can leverage these insights to tailor communication of environmental tax increases in different contexts, emphasizing, for instance, job creation.}, language = {en} } @article{BrehmGruhl, author = {Brehm, Johannes and Gruhl, Henri}, title = {Increase in concerns about climate change following climate strikes and civil disobedience in Germany}, series = {Nature Communications}, volume = {15}, journal = {Nature Communications}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-024-46477-4}, abstract = {Climate movements have gained momentum in recent years, aiming to create public awareness of the consequences of climate change through salient climate protests. This paper investigates whether concerns about climate change increase following demonstrative protests and confrontational acts of civil disobedience. Leveraging individual-level survey panel data from Germany, we exploit exogenous variations in the timing of climate protests relative to survey interview dates to compare climate change concerns in the days before and after a protest (N = 24,535). Following climate protests, we find increases in concerns about climate change by, on average, 1.2 percentage points. Further, we find no statistically significant evidence that concerns of any subpopulation decreased after climate protests. Lastly, the increase in concerns following protests is highest when concern levels before the protests are low.}, language = {en} } @article{EdmondsonFlachslandausdemMooreetal., author = {Edmondson, Duncan and Flachsland, Christian and aus dem Moore, Nils and Koch, Nicolas and Koller, Florian and Gruhl, Henri and Brehm, Johannes}, title = {Anticipatory climate policy mix pathways: a framework for ex-ante construction and assessment applied to the road transport sector}, series = {Climate Policy}, journal = {Climate Policy}, issn = {1469-3062}, doi = {10.1080/14693062.2024.2397440}, language = {en} }