@article{MejiaKreyenfeld, author = {Mejia, Cristina Samper and Kreyenfeld, Michaela}, title = {Marriage migration and women's entry into the German labour market}, series = {Journal of Family Research}, volume = {33}, journal = {Journal of Family Research}, number = {2}, doi = {10.20377/jfr-491}, pages = {439 -- 466}, abstract = {Objective: We analyse the employment patterns of childless first-generation migrants to Germany. In particular, we focus on the behaviour of female "marriage migrants". Marriage migrants are defined as individuals who married after their spouse had moved to Germany. Background: Demographic studies have illustrated that marriage migrants have particularly high childbirth rates upon arrival. There is, however, little empirical evidence on how the childbearing behaviour of migrant women is related to their employment behaviour. Method: We use event history techniques to study women's labour market entry after migration in relation to their childbearing behaviour. We draw on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). The analytical sample is restricted to immigrant women who moved while childless to Germany between 1990 and 2016 (n=981). Results: Compared to other groups, marriage migrants have very low chances of entering the labour market. Only 32 per cent of the migrants in our sample had ever participated in the labour market in the five-year period after their arrival in Germany. A large share of the differences between these migrants and other migrants can be attributed to the socio-demographic composition of these women, and to their tendency to transition to parenthood soon after their arrival. Conclusion: We argue that the low employment rates of female marriage migrants must also be viewed in the context of Germany's migration policies, which do not provide many routes for female third-country nationals to move to Germany. One of the few available channels is that of marriage migration. We conclude by discussing the social policy implications of these findings at a time when Germany is gradually becoming a dual-earner society.}, language = {en} } @article{BremhorstKreyenfeldLambert, author = {Bremhorst, Vincent and Kreyenfeld, Michaela and Lambert, Philippe}, title = {Fertility progression in Germany : An analysis using flexible nonparametric cure survival models}, series = {Demographic Research}, volume = {35}, journal = {Demographic Research}, doi = {10.4054/DemRes.2016.35.18}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-21352}, pages = {505 -- 534}, abstract = {Objective: This paper uses data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) to study the transition to second and third births. In particular, we seek to distinguish the factors that determine the timing of fertility from the factors that influence ultimate parity progression. Methods: We employ cure survival models, a technique commonly used in epidemiological studies and in the statistical literature but only rarely applied to fertility research. Results: We find that education has a different impact on the timing and the ultimate probability of having a second and a third birth. Furthermore, we show that the shape of the fertility schedule for the total population differs from that of 'susceptible women' (i.e., those who have a second or a third child). Conclusions: Standard event history models conflate timing and quantum effects. Our approach overcomes this shortcoming. It estimates separate parameters for the hazard rate of having a next child for the 'susceptible population' and the ultimate probability of having another child for the entire population at risk. Contribution: We go beyond standard cure survival models, also known as split population models, used in fertility research by specifying a flexible non-parametric model using Bayesian P-splines for the latent distribution (related to the timing of an extra birth) instead of a parametric model. Our approach is, so far, limited to time-constant covariates, but can be extended to include time-varying covariates as well.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KreyenfeldHeintzMartin, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Kreyenfeld, Michaela and Heintz-Martin, Valerie}, title = {Fertility after separation: second births in higher order unions in Germany}, series = {FamiliesAndSocieties working paper series 28}, volume = {2015}, journal = {FamiliesAndSocieties working paper series 28}, number = {28}, publisher = {Stockholm University}, address = {Stockholm}, pages = {21}, abstract = {This paper uses recent data from the German family panel (pairfam) to examine the fertility behavior after separation. More specifically, we focus on the transition to the second child and compare the behavior of respondents in ongoing partnerships (couples who are still partnered with the mother/father of their first child) with those who have experienced family dissolution after the first birth. The investigation reveals strong gender differences in postseparation fertility behavior. We also find large regional differences. Eastern Germans had much lower second birth rates than western Germans. However, they were more prone than western Germans to have their second child with a parent who was not the father or the mother of their firstborn child. This result is in line with descriptive findings on the diversity of family structures in eastern Germany.}, language = {en} } @article{KreyenfeldGeisler, author = {Kreyenfeld, Michaela and Geisler, Esther}, title = {Against all odds: Fathers' use of parental leave in Germany}, series = {Journal of European Social Policy}, volume = {21}, journal = {Journal of European Social Policy}, number = {1}, publisher = {Sage Publications}, address = {New York, NY [u.a.]}, issn = {0958-9287}, doi = {10.1177/0958928710385732}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-9631}, pages = {88 -- 99}, abstract = {This paper investigates fathers' usage of parental leave in Germany based on data from the microcensuses of 1999—2005. Special attention is given to the role that education has in leave-taking behaviour. Our empirical results show that educational differences between the partners are strong predictors of fathers' usage of parental leave. A father is more likely to take parental leave if he has a partner who is more highly educated or older. We also find that employment through a temporary working contract substantially lowers the chances that a man will take advantage of parental leave, while being employed in the public sector increases the likelihood that a man will use his parental leave entitlement.}, language = {en} } @article{KreyenfeldScholzPetersetal., author = {Kreyenfeld, Michaela and Scholz, Rembrandt and Peters, Frederik and Wlosnewski, Ines}, title = {Order specific fertility rates for Germany: Estimates from Perinatal Statistics for the period 2001-2008}, series = {Comparative population studies (CPOS)}, volume = {35}, journal = {Comparative population studies (CPOS)}, number = {2}, publisher = {Bundesinstitut f{\"u}r Bev{\"o}lkerungsforschung}, address = {Wiesbaden}, issn = {1869-8980}, doi = {10.4232/10.CPoS-2010-06en}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-9642}, pages = {207 -- 224}, abstract = {Until 2008, Germany's vital statistics did not include information on the biological order of each birth. This resulted in a dearth of important demographic indicators, such as the mean age at fi rst birth and the level of childlessness. Researchers have tried to fill this gap by generating order-specifi c birth rates from survey data, and by combining survey data with vital statistics. This paper takes a different approach by using Perinatal Statistics to generate birth order-specific fertility rates for the period 2001 to 2008. Perinatal Statistics includes information on births that took place in German hospitals. Out-of-hospital births, which account for about 2 \% of all births, are not included in the Perinatal Statistics. In a sensitivity analysis, we show how robust our estimates are to the inclusion of out-of-hospital births. Our general assessment is that the Perinatal Statistics is a valuable source for generating order-specific fertility rates, regardless of whether out-of-hospital births are included.}, language = {en} } @article{KreyenfeldHank, author = {Kreyenfeld, Michaela and Hank, Karsten}, title = {Does the availability of child care influence the employment of mothers? Findings from Western Germany}, series = {Population Research and Policy Review}, volume = {19}, journal = {Population Research and Policy Review}, number = {4}, publisher = {Kluwer Academic Publishers}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0167-5923}, doi = {10.1023/A:1026556309080}, pages = {317 -- 337}, abstract = {There is a vast empirical literature investigating the effects of child care costson female employment. Day-care costs are usually treated as a reduction infemale wages and are supposed to reduce a woman's propensity to participatein the labor market. In this paper we argue that an analysis of the effects ofchild care on the employment of mothers in Germany should focus on theavailability rather than the affordability of care, due to peculiarities of theGerman day-care regime. Our empirical findings cast doubt on the effectivenessof the current German day-care regime. Specifically, we question the extent towhich it enables mothers to participate in the labor market.}, language = {en} } @article{Kreyenfeld, author = {Kreyenfeld, Michaela}, title = {Parity Specific Birth Rates for West Germany: An Attempt to Combine Survey Data and Vital Statistics}, series = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Bev{\"o}lkerungswissenschaften}, volume = {27}, journal = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Bev{\"o}lkerungswissenschaften}, number = {3}, publisher = {Leske + Budrich}, address = {Opladen}, issn = {0340-2398}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-9838}, pages = {327 -- 357}, abstract = {In this paper, we combine vital statistics and survey data to obtain parity specific birth rates for West Germany. Since vital statistics do not provide birth parity information, one is confined to using estimates. The robustness of these estimates is an issue, which is unfortunately only rarely addressed when fertility indicators for (West) Germany are reported. In order to check how reliable our results are, we estimate confidence intervals and compare them to results from survey data and estimations conducted by the German Statistical Office. Although our estimations show a similar trend, the magnitude of some fertility indicators differs substantially from the ones reported in other studies. However, estimations from other studies do not give a consistent picture of German fertility, either.}, language = {en} } @article{Kreyenfeld, author = {Kreyenfeld, Michaela}, title = {Time-squeeze, partner effect or self-selection?: An investigation into the positive effect of women's education on second birth risks in West Germany}, series = {Demographic Research}, volume = {7}, journal = {Demographic Research}, publisher = {Max-Planck Institut f{\"u}r demografische Forschung}, address = {Rostock}, doi = {10.4054/DemRes.2002.7.2}, pages = {15 -- 48}, abstract = {This paper investigates the role of women's education in the transition to the second child using data from the 1997 German micro-census. We begin our analysis with a simple model, which shows a positive effect of woman's education on the transition rate to the second child for West German women. We argue that this effect is most likely confounded by various factors. Firstly, we assume that there is a time-squeeze effect, which increases the transition rate to the second child for more highly educated women. Secondly, titled as the partner hypothesis, we argue that more highly educated women often live with more highly educated partners who have the earning potential to afford a large family. Thirdly, titled as the selection hypothesis, we argue that the positive effect of women's education can be attributed to a selection effect, i.e. familyoriented college graduates are more likely to select themselves into the group of women at risk of second birth. The empirical investigations particularly support the second and third hypotheses. After controlling for the partner's characteristics and including unobserved heterogeneity factors, the positive effect of female education becomes strongly negative.}, language = {en} } @article{KreyenfeldSpiessWagner, author = {Kreyenfeld, Michaela and Spieß, Katharina and Wagner, Gert}, title = {Distributional analysis of child care subsidies in Germany}, series = {European Early Childhood Education Research Journal}, volume = {11}, journal = {European Early Childhood Education Research Journal}, number = {2}, publisher = {Taylor and Francis}, address = {London [u.a.]}, issn = {1350-293X}, pages = {159 -- 175}, abstract = {In general, day care subsidies are accepted as a means of creating equal chances for both children and mothers in the labour market. Although there is a broad consensus that the use of children's day care should be publicly supported, there is no consensus on how this should be done. Moreover, there is little knowledge on the distributional effects of day care subsidies. In order to assess whether public expenditures are targeted efficiently, however, it is vital to know which social groups profit most from public expenditures on children's day care and whether tax-payers' money is spent effectively. In Germany, as in other European countries, day care subsidies are mainly provided 'in-kind'. Municipalities and NPOs provide day care for children, which is -apart from a small fee - free of charge. In this study we estimate the distributional effects of state-funded day care in Germany using microdata on households and data on the expenditure of public-funded day care. Major results are that day care subsidies have only modest redistributional effects. Primarily it is the middle-income range that profits from the public provision of children's day care. This contradicts common public-policy recommendations, which state that low-income families should be the first target of day care subsidies.}, language = {en} } @article{Kreyenfeld, author = {Kreyenfeld, Michaela}, title = {Fertility decisions in the FRG and GDR: An Analysis with Data from the German Fertility and Family Survey}, series = {Demographic Research (Special Collection)}, volume = {3}, journal = {Demographic Research (Special Collection)}, publisher = {Max-Planck Institut f{\"u}r demografische Forschung}, address = {Rostock}, doi = {10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.11}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-9743}, pages = {275 -- 318}, abstract = {The aim of this paper is to compare family policies and fertility patterns in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) and the German Federal Republic (FRG). Among other aspects, both societies particularly differed in the integration of women into the labor market. By contrasting the fertility development in these two societies, this paper aims to illuminate how women's education and employment relates to fertility decisions in societal contexts that support (in the case of the GDR) and hamper (in the case of the FRG) the compatibility between work and family life. Data for this analysis comes from the German Fertility and Family Survey (of the year 1992). We provide descriptive statistics for all birth parities, but we limit the multivariate event history analysis to first births only}, language = {en} } @article{Kreyenfeld, author = {Kreyenfeld, Michaela}, title = {Uncertainties in female employment careers and the postponement of parenthood in Germany}, series = {European Sociological Review}, volume = {26}, journal = {European Sociological Review}, number = {3}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0266-7215}, doi = {10.1093/esr/jcp026}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-9661}, pages = {351 -- 366}, abstract = {This paper investigates whether uncertainties in female employment careers result in a postponement of family formation. Data for this analysis comes from the German Socio-Economic Panel, which provides longitudinal information on economic uncertainty and fertility for the period 1984 to 2006. We employ objective measures of uncertainty (unemployment) as well as subjective measures (whether the respondent is worried about her economic situation, whether she is worried about the security of her job). We find little evidence that uncertainties in female employment careers generally lead to a postponement of parenthood. Hence, the relationship between economic uncertainty and first birth varies by level of education. While more highly educated postpone parenthood when subject to employment uncertainties, women with low levels of education often respond to these situations by becoming mothers.}, language = {en} } @article{KreyenfeldZemanBurkimsheretal., author = {Kreyenfeld, Michaela and Zeman, Krystof and Burkimsher, Marion and Jaschinski, Ina}, title = {Fertility Data for German speaking countries: What is the potential? Where are the pitfalls?}, series = {Comparative Population Studies}, volume = {36}, journal = {Comparative Population Studies}, number = {2-3}, publisher = {Bundesinstitut f{\"u}r Bev{\"o}lkerungsforschung}, address = {Wiesbaden}, issn = {1869-8980}, doi = {10.4232/10.CPoS-2011-06en}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-8807}, pages = {349 -- 380}, abstract = {This paper provides an overview of fertility data for Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Particular attention is given to the availability of order-specific fertility data. The authors discuss the quality of data provided by the Statistical Offices, both birth registration data and censuses or microcensuses. In addition, they explore how social science surveys can be used to generate order-specific fertility indicators, and compare survey fertility estimates with estimates from vital statistics. Prior studies have shown that there is a 'family bias' in most surveys, with the fertility of younger cohorts being overstated, because respondents with young children are easier to reach by interviewers. The authors' assessment of various types of surveys from the three countries mostly supports this notion. The 'family bias' is most pronounced in family surveys in contrast to all-purpose surveys. Weighting data does not fully cure the 'family bias', which the authors attribute to the fact that the number of children is usually not considered a factor in calculating sample weights, as provided by the survey agencies and Statistical Offices. The confounding role of migration in the production of reliable and comparable fertility statistics is also discussed.}, language = {en} }