Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds byassimilating aircraft in situ measurements

  • Abstract. The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However, because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distal areas. In our approach, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations, measured in the northwestern part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system combined with a volcanic ash transport model to investigate the potential improvement on the forecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show that the error of the analyzed volcanic ash state can be significantly reduced through assimilating real-life in situ measurements. After a continuous assimilation, it is shown that the aviation advice for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg can beAbstract. The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However, because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distal areas. In our approach, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations, measured in the northwestern part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system combined with a volcanic ash transport model to investigate the potential improvement on the forecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show that the error of the analyzed volcanic ash state can be significantly reduced through assimilating real-life in situ measurements. After a continuous assimilation, it is shown that the aviation advice for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg can be significantly improved. We suggest that with suitable aircrafts measuring once per day across the distal volcanic ash plume, the description and prediction of volcanic ash clouds in these areas can be greatly improved.show moreshow less

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Author:Guangliang FuORCiD, Arnold Heemink, Sha LuORCiD, Arjo SegersORCiD, Konradin WeberORCiD, Hai-Xiang LinORCiD
Qualitätssicherung:peer reviewed
open access:Gold - Erstveröffentlichung mit Lizenzhinweis
Fachbereich/Einrichtung:Hochschule Düsseldorf / Fachbereich - Maschinenbau und Verfahrenstechnik
Document Type:Article
Year of Completion:2016
Language of Publication:English
Publisher:Copernicus
Parent Title (English):Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Volume:16
Issue:14
Page Number:12
First Page:9189
Last Page:9200
URN:urn:nbn:de:hbz:due62-opus-50058
DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9189-2016
ISSN:1680-7324
Tag:Luftreinhaltung
Dewey Decimal Classification:6 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 62 Ingenieurwissenschaften / 620 Ingenieurwissenschaften und zugeordnete Tätigkeiten
Licence (German):Creative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
Release Date:2025/02/21
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