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Multi-scenario dynamic prediction of ecological risk assessment in an arid area of northwest China
(2023)
Ecological security is essential for the development of environmental health and human society. However, the driving mechanisms and spatial non-stationarity of ecological risks are still unknown, particularly in arid areas. Thus, this study constructed an ecological risk index (ERI) research framework in arid areas based on land use and socio-economic data from 1980 to 2020 to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution trend, driving mechanisms, and spatial non-stationarity of ecological risk and predict the ecological risk under business-as-usual, economic development, and ecological protection scenarios using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model. The results show that: (1) cropland and build-up land were expanding, whereas forestland and grassland water bodies were shrinking. Compared with the two development stages from 1980 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2020, cropland increased by 4.73% and 51.52%, respectively, whereas build-up land increased by 12.64% and 106.52%, respectively, indicating rapid development and drastic changes in the past 20 years. (2) With the change in landscape diversity, the regional ecological risks showed an increasing trend, whereas the future ecological risks showed an increasing trend because of the cumulative effect of landscape pattern changes caused by human activities. (3) Moreover, dramatic changes in ecological risk, particularly in areas of intense human activity in build-up land, agricultural land, artificial oases, and mountainous areas. Corresponding to the analysis of driving mechanisms, population, GDP, distance to government, water, and primary roads; have a significant effect on ecological risk, whereas DEM has direct and indirect effect paths. Ultimately, the proposed analysis framework can present the spatiotemporal changes of ecological risks and their influencing mechanisms, which can help develop sustainable development policies.
Forschungsdatenmanagement (FDM) gewinnt an den Hochschulen in Brandenburg eine immer größere Bedeutung. Für den Aufbau und die Institutionalisierung eines nachhaltigen FDM an den brandenburgischen Hochschulen ist eine möglichst genaue Ermittlung des aktuellen Kenntnisstandes der Forschenden und deren Bedarfe bezüglich des Umgangs mit Forschungsdaten erforderlich. Hierzu diente die Bedarfserhebung, die im Rahmen des vom BMBF und dem MWFK geförderten Projekts IN-FDM-BB durchgeführt wurde. Beteiligt an der brandenburgweiten Umfrage waren alle acht staatlichen forschenden Hochschulen: vier Universitäten (die Brandenburgische Technische Universität Cottbus – Senftenberg (BTU), die Filmuniversität Babelsberg KONRAD WOLF (FB), die Europa-Universität Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder) (EUV) und die Universität Potsdam (UP)) und vier Hochschulen für Angewandte Wissenschaften (die Fachhochschule Potsdam (FHP), die Hochschule für nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde (HNEE), die Technische Hochschule Brandenburg (THB) und die Technische Hochschule Wildau (THW)). Die Hochschulen unterscheiden sich erheblich in ihrer Größe und fachlichen Ausrichtung. So hat die UP deutlich über 20.000 Studierende und über 1.900 Professor*innen und akademische Mitarbeiter*innen, die FB hingegen, weniger als 1.000 Studierende und ca. 140 Professor*innen und akademische Mitarbeiter*innen. Landesweit sind fast alle Fachdisziplinen vertreten, jedoch mit unterschiedlichen Schwerpunkten je Hochschule.
Das Ziel der Bedarfserhebung war, den Kenntnisstand bezüglich des professionellen Umgangs mit Forschungsdaten der Forschenden an den einzelnen Hochschulen zu ermitteln, FDM-Bedarfe zu erkennen und daraus mögliche FDM-Aktivitäten für die jeweilige Hochschule abzuleiten. Die Bedarfserhebung richtete sich daher in erster Linie an die Forschenden der jeweiligen Hochschule.
Academic data stewardship at universities has to fulfil many different roles. One of the most important is to build up a connection to researchers and bridge the gap between research data infrastructure and researchers. Different scientific communities have different requirements for research data management and expectations regarding text and data publication. In many of the sub-disciplines of engineering sciences, research data management practices are not established so far. When it comes to contact between data stewards and researchers, a common knowledge base has to be established to become clear about why and what actions for research data management has to take, that engineering researchers can adapt them for their research data management practices. Many research data management standards have to take into consideration. However, to this point of time, the research data management community lacks for data literacy graphics to explain how the technical data management ecosystem works together with standards like the findability, accessibility, interoperability and reuse (FAIR) principles. Therefore, we developed a graphic for data literacy and consulting scenarios.
This is a data management plan for the DFG research project "Predictability of color changes of wood used indoor - A new approach to evaluate the color change as a function of the radiation dose". DFG Funding code / Project number: 442135169
Project website: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/442135169?language=en
This data management plan (DMP) applies to the Research Data Management Organizer (RDMO) questionnaire and was operated with the RDMO software: https://rdmorganiser.github.io/en/
Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, which is negatively affecting agricultural production and food security. However, the role of agro-ecological zones and social groups in climate change adaptation (CCA) and its impact on smallholder farmers in Nepal remains unexplored. To fill this gap, this study aimed to identify the effect of agro-ecological zones and social groups on smallholder farmers' adaptation to climate change using the multivariate probit model. Multistage sampling was used to collect data from 400 households in three agro-ecological zones of Nepal. These zones were highland (mountainous region), midland (hilly region) and lowland (terai/plain region). The results of our study showed that farmers in the Mountain region are more likely to adopt off-farm activities and temporary migration as a CCA strategy than those in the Terai/plain agro-ecological zone. In the Terai/Plain, farmers mainly adopt small-scale irrigation and agroforestry. In terms of social groups, the Brahmin group was more likely to adopt new crop varieties and small-scale irrigation than the Sudra group. The Sudra farmers preferred temporary migration and off-farm activities more than the Brahmins. Our study shows that policies to promote the adoption of CCA strategies need to take into account location and social group differences in order to improve the adaptive capacity of the most vulnerable farmers. Mountain and Sudra farmers need support to adapt to climate change and sustain agriculture.
Although pesticides ensure the quality and quantity of agricultural produce, they have adverse effects on farmers, their families, and consumers. Therefore, in order to reduce the unpleasant effects of pesticide use, stakeholders would be well advised to extend guidance and precautions to end users. The objective of this study was to determine the pesticide handling behaviour and the effectiveness of pesticide information on pesticide handling knowledge and personal protective equipment (PPE) use among farmers in southwest Nigeria. One hundred and fifty-six farmers were interviewed using a structured questionnaire in December 2019 and January 2020. The results revealed that a one-third of the farmers dispose their pesticide residues on the field, only 3% of the farmers dispose the hazardous pesticide waste at a collection point, and 65% of them dispose the empty containers indiscriminately. The majority of farmers never use respirators (79%), hats (60%), and boots (57%) when applying pesticides. Knowledge of pesticide application and waste management is low (58% of respondents scored less than 10 on a knowledge scale of 0–14). The result of the regression model shows that information from pesticide labels and farmer-to-farmer exchanges significantly increase farmers’ knowledge of pesticide handling and PPE use. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of current information provision to smallholder farmers on the correct use of pesticides is not sufficient. Therefore, we highlight the need for pesticide companies, distributors, and government agencies to intensify and further develop their efforts to empower smallholder farmers to improve their knowledge and use of pesticides.
As the risk of forest fires increases around the globe, the issues of how to control, suppress, and prevent them are the subjects of growing public and political attention. This study focuses on the political debate in Germany regarding forest fires and provides insights into the conceptualization of forest fires and forest fire management at the federal and state policymaking levels. By examining forest fire narratives through the policy lens, this case study takes an exemplary extreme weather event exacerbated by climate change as an opportunity to examine the policy response to this problem. In this way, we examine the role of policy narratives in civil and environmental protection and disaster management. The findings reveal that all politicians examined in this study agree that forest fire management is an urgent matter that needs to be supported. In the prevailing human-centered narrative, policymakers see active forest management and use as tools to improve forest resilience to fire and other calamities. Those who advocate a nature-based narrative assert that it is natural processes in protected forest areas that most effectively enhance resilience. The policy solutions derived from these views include financial support, recognition of the work of foresters, forest fire managers, and civil protection agencies as well as, depending on the type of narrative argument favored, either increased forest management or improved protection of forest ecologies. This suggests that narrative analysis may illuminate the rationales underlying previous policy decisions and the framework for future ones. This contribution throws light on how narratives shape policymaking and, by extension, disaster management. Future studies should therefore take into account the influence of prevailing narratives when it comes to evaluating the potential that policymaking can offer for disaster management in the future.
Seit Anfang 2022 ist das Töten der männlichen Eintagsküken der Legelinien in Deutschland verboten. Im Beitrag wird eine Übersicht über etwaige Auswirkungen des Verbots auf die verschiedenen Akteure der Wertschöpfungskette gegeben. Ferner wird der aktuelle Stand bei den Alternativen zum Kükentöten beleuchtet.
Große international tätige Zuchtunternehmen wie Lohmann haben in ihren Brütereien Anlagen zur Geschlechtsbestimmung im Ei installiert (seit 2022 auch in Deutschland). Ferner bieten sie ihren Kunden alternativ die Bruderhahnaufzucht oder auch Zweinutzungsherkünfte an.
Die Zahl der Brütereien mit Legeküken (zum Gebrauch) hat von 2021 auf 2022 abgenommen (von 22 auf 14). Da die Gesamtzahl aller Brütereien aber nur von 54 auf 51 zurückging, haben offensichtlich einige auf andere Geflügelarten umgestellt. Die Zahl der geschlüpften Legeküken nahm stark ab (2020 40,5 Mio., 2022 16,2 Mio., 1. Halbjahr 2023 9,9 Mio.).
Es besteht ein Bedarf von 47 – 63 Millionen Junghennen im Jahr (bei 12 – 15 Monaten Nutzungsdauer). Mit den für 2020 angegebenen 12,2 Millionen Plätzen konnten nur etwa 28 Millionen Junghennen erzeugt werden, woran der Importbedarf deutlich wird. Der größte Teil der importierten Legeküken (für Aufzuchtbetriebe) oder Junghennen (für Legehennenbetriebe) kommt allerdings aus Erzeugung ohne Kükentöten. Denn von 50 Millionen Haltungsplätzen mit alternativen Haltungssystemen in Deutschland werden 86 Prozent vom Verein KAT kontrolliert, der das Kükentöten auch bei Importen ausschließt.
Die Haltung von Legehennen stieg im Jahr 2022 weiter an (Anzahl Betriebe + 6 %, Haltungsplätze + 3 %, Legehennen + 2 %). Auf eine verlängerte Nutzungsdauer der Hennen deuten sinkende Schlachtzahlen für Althennen in Deutschland hin (2021 34,0 Mio., 2022 29,7 Mio.).
Die großen Einzelhandelsketten haben sich verpflichtet, nur noch Schaleneier ohne Kükentöten (OKT) anzubieten, auch für importierte Eier. Einige Ketten dehnen das schrittweise auch auf Eier in verarbeiteten Produkten aus. Traditionell werden etwa 30 Prozent aller Eier in Deutschland importiert. Die Verbraucherpreise stiegen bereits 2021 aufgrund des Kükentötungsverbots etwas an, 2022 hingegen Inflationsbedingt stark.
Dennoch ist der Konsum von Eiern nur leicht zurückgegangen (von 233 in 2021 auf 230 in 2022). Beim Kauf von Schaleneiern gab es in 2022 eine leichte Verschiebung zu kostengünstigeren Eiern (Bio-Eier - 1,2 %), sowie zu Käufen im Discounter (+ 2 %).
Verbraucherstudien haben gezeigt, dass mittlerweile die meisten Konsumenten die Problematik des Kükentötens kennen und dieses auch ablehnen. Die Alternativen dazu sind jedoch weniger bekannt. Dies trifft am meisten auf Zweinutzungshühner zu.
Bei der Geschlechtsbestimmung im Ei hat eine starke Weiterentwicklung stattgefunden. Mittlerweile sind Anlagen mit fünf verschiedenen Verfahren in Brütereien im Einsatz (seit 2022 auch in Deutschland). Die für Deutschland angegebenen Kapazitäten addieren sich auf etwa 17 – 21 Millionen Eiern im Jahr. Die derzeit in den Brütereien genutzten Verfahren können nach der Gesetzesänderung (Bestimmung bis max. 12. Bruttag) künftig weiter angewendet werden. Aus Tierschutzsicht wäre allerdings eine Betäubung der Embryonen vor der Tötung zu diskutieren.
Die Anzahl Brütereien mit Sortierung von Bruderhähnen hat deutlich zugenommen (2021 4, 2022 13). 2022 wurden 10,59 Millionen männliche Küken zur Aufzucht aussortiert. Dies macht einen Anteil von 65,3 Prozent der 16,20 Millionen geschlüpften Legeküken aus (Übrige Geschlechtsbestimmung). Mit den von der Branche angegebenen 5 – 8 Millionen Plätzen ließen sich 20 – 23 Millionen Bruderhähne im Jahr aufziehen. Die KAT gibt an, dass 2022 9 von 20 Millionen Bruderhähnen in Polen aufgezogen wurden. Über die Verwendung der Bruderhähne ist wenig bekannt. KAT schreibt eine Verwendung als Lebensmittel vor.
Zweinutzungshühner sind bislang noch selten in der Praxis anzutreffen (geschätzt unter 1 % der Hennen). Sie sind bei vielen Verbrauchern nicht bekannt und in den Supermärkten gibt es keine speziellen Angebote. Aufgrund der geringeren Leistungen müssen die Landwirte höhere Preise erzielen.
CONTEXT
Long-Term Field Experiments (LTEs) were implemented to study the long-term effects of different management practices, including tillage, fertilization and crop rotation under otherwise constant conditions. Climate change is expected to change these conditions, challenging interpretation of LTE data with regard to the distinction between climate change and management effects.
OBJECTIVE
The objective of the study was to quantify the expected, spatially differentiated changes of agroclimatic conditions for the German LTE sites as a precondition for modelling and LTE data interpretation.
METHODS
We developed a framework combining spatially distributed climate data and LTE metadata to identify the possible climatic changes at 247 LTE sites with experiments running for 20 years or more. The LTEs were classified using the following categories: fertilization, tillage, crop rotation, field crops or grassland, conventional or organic. We utilized climate variables (temperature, precipitation) and agroclimatic indicators (aridity, growing degree days, etc.) to compare a baseline (1971–2000) with future periods (2021−2100) under the IPCC's Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP). A comprehensive LTE risk assessment was conducted, based on changes in climate variables and agroclimatic indicators between baseline and future scenarios.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Under the most extreme scenario (SSP585), 150 LTEs are expected to shift from humid and dry sub-humid to semi-arid conditions. Frost days in LTE areas are expected to decline by 81%, and the growing season to lengthen by up to 92%. The spatial differentiation of expected climate change also facilitates the identification of suitable sites for future agricultural practices and may inform the design of new LTEs.
SIGNIFICANCE
Our results may guide the interpretation of LTE data regarding the effect of climate change, facilitating future soil crop modelling studies with LTE data and providing information for planning new LTE sites to support future agricultural research and/or adapting management on existing LTE sites. The framework we developed can easily be transferred to LTE sites in agricultural regions worldwide to support LTE research on climate change impacts and adaptation.
Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in agricultural soils removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and contributes towards achieving carbon neutrality. For farmers, higher SOC levels have multiple benefits, including increased soil fertility and resilience against drought-related yield losses. However, increasing SOC levels requires agricultural management changes that are associated with costs. Private soil carbon certificates could compensate for these costs. In these schemes, farmers register their fields with commercial certificate providers who certify SOC increases. Certificates are then sold as voluntary emission offsets on the carbon market.
In this paper, we assess the suitability of these certificates as an instrument for climate change mitigation. From a soils' perspective, we address processes of SOC enrichment, their potentials and limits, and options for cost-effective measurement and monitoring. From a farmers’ perspective, we assess management options likely to increase SOC, and discuss their synergies and trade-offs with economic, environmental and social targets. From a governance perspective, we address requirements to guarantee additionality and permanence while preventing leakage effects. Furthermore, we address questions of legitimacy and accountability.
While increasing SOC is a cornerstone for more sustainable cropping systems, private carbon certificates fall short of expectations for climate change mitigation as permanence of SOC sequestration cannot be guaranteed. Governance challenges include lack of long-term monitoring, problems to ensure additionality, problems to safeguard against leakage effects, and lack of long-term accountability if stored SOC is re-emitted. We conclude that soil-based private carbon certificates are unlikely to deliver the emission offset attributed to them and that their benefit for climate change mitigation is uncertain. Additional research is needed to develop standards for SOC change metrics and monitoring, and to better understand the impact of short term, non-permanent carbon removals on peaks in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and on the probability of exceeding climatic tipping points.