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This report offers an in-depth foresight assessment that critically evaluates and questions the foundational assumptions of European environmental policies related to the Green Deal. To enhance the resilience of these frameworks, the two-year study utilises a comprehensive set of methods, including impact wheel analysis, Ishikawa diagrams, cross-impact analysis, semi-structured interviews, and causal layered analysis. This approach reveals the cascading effects, entrenched cognitive biases, and intricate interdependencies present in policy design. These techniques facilitate a detailed examination of specific policy areas while providing a systemic perspective on how the connections among circular economy, bioeconomy, clean air and health, and the decarbonisation of transport impact overall sustainability results.
By harnessing these diverse foresight techniques, the assessment reveals that conventional policy narratives are often oversimplified, obscuring risks and trade-offs that, if unchallenged, may impede a successful transition to a sustainable Europe. The impact wheel and Ishikawa diagrams facilitate the structured identification of primary and secondary effects, while the cross-impact analysis maps the interactive dynamics between assumptions. Semi-structured interviews provide nuanced stakeholder perspectives that uncover underlying worldviews and metaphors shaping policy discourse when synthesised via causal layered analysis. The study offers actionable recommendations for enhancing policy resilience, promoting integrated governance, and fostering adaptive strategies capable of addressing the multipronged challenges posed by environmental uncertainty.
The European Union has unveiled the European Green Deal (EGD) and the 8th Environment Action Programme (8EAP), initiatives that represent the most comprehensive and forward-looking policy frameworks to date. Central to these programmes is the 'Systemic Change' concept, which has garnered significant political support as a fundamental approach to achieving environmental sustainability goals. It is imperative to acknowledge that the intricacies of environmental challenges demand a nuanced understanding of their systemic nature.
Oversight of systemic phenomena such as non-linear dynamics, rebound effects, lock-ins, burden-shifting, and trade-offs during the policy formulation stage can result in unintended deleterious outcomes and the redistribution of burdens. Consequently, analysing systemic attributes is increasingly vital for informed policy guidance. Such systems-based perspectives will serve for the anticipated State of the Environment Report 2025, designed to facilitate robust policymaking.
This report aims to identify and communicate some essential systemic properties pertinent to 'systemic change' and the journey towards sustainability. It examines various potential systemic properties across production-consumption systems, including energy, food, mobility, and housing, aligning with EEA thematic domains and corresponding policies. For each thematic domain, selected cases are analysed, utilising causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to visualise and assess systemic properties.
The report does not aim for an exhaustive literature review but instead seeks to present illustrative and, at times, provocative scenarios to probe the effectiveness of CLDs in exploring and articulating systemic properties.
The systemic properties analysed in the cases include:
Direct and Indirect Rebound Effects highlight the paradox where efficiency improvements lead to increased consumption.
'Fixes that Fail' illustrates the pitfalls of short-term solutions that neglect underlying issues, resulting in recurring, more complex problems.
'Shifting the Burden' is where short-term remedies prevent the resolution of root causes by fostering dependency.
'Limits to Growth', underscoring the unsustainable nature of indefinite growth when natural limits are reached.
‘Growth and underinvestment’ is a systems archetype that describes the scenario when growth potential is hindered by insufficient investment in capacity, leading to performance shortfalls and curtailed growth.
The report ventures partly into more speculative thought experiments, such as the complete shift from meat to vegan diets, to explore the implications of drastic changes within complex systems. Despite the speculative nature of these experiments, they underscore the slow pace of systemic change and the potential for rebound effects, highlighting the necessity for comprehensive political measures across the food value chain.
In addressing the energy transition, the report emphasises the imperative of moving towards a carbon-neutral, renewable energy system, spotlighting the role of hydrogen technology. It critiques current mobility policies' narrow focus on technological upgrades at the expense of broader systemic reforms, advocating for a more integrated approach to sustainability.
Furthermore, the report examines the EU's ambition to double the annual energy renovation rate by 2030, considering systemic factors such as cost reduction, material usage, and the promotion of circular economy principles to overcome barriers to building renovation.
To address the overarching societal challenges addressed e.g. in the European Commission’s (EC) Green Deal strategy a transition of the agri-food system is needed. This requires adjustments and changes on all geographical and governance levels implemented by public and private organisations as well as industry- or community-driven initiatives. Change agents initiate, drive and realise these adjustments. The EC flags the need to enhance the involvement of public and private actors who realise change on landscape, agri-food value chains and networks levels as well as in local communities. This study focuses on the identification of changing roles of innovators in farming and rural business. It addresses the following questions: 1. What lessons can be learned from analysing outstanding innovative personalities and the trajectories of personal and organisational development? Which factors enable changes in the roles of these innovators?
The results show that apart from personality, a mix of competencies are crucial for such a role change. The interviewees share the willingness to learn and achieve a higher level of formal education and training according to their school leaving certificate, supporting partners, strong networks, and some context specific factors. The results contribute to raising awareness for often-overlooked remarkable performances of rural innovators. In the EU policy context, the Multi-Actor and the Interactive Innovation Approaches, and the AKIS concept are key for R&I funding. This paper contributes with a simplified theoretical approach about the changing role of the driving AKIS-actors. This approach can also be transferred to other than the agri-food/rural sectors.
The European Union's innovation framework mandates the Multi-Actor Approach (MAA) in Horizon Europe (HEU) projects to foster co-creation among stakeholders, linking science and practice. A critical component of this strategy is the explicit recommendation to involve EIP-AGRI Operational Groups (OGs), which are pivotal in fostering interactive innovation and producing practical solutions at the local level. This conference paper presents the main findings from the 3rd PREMIERE Focus Group, which was motivated by the European Commission’s (EC) expectation that more interactive innovation groups from the grass-root level should be included in Horizon Cluster 6 proposals, reinforcing the MAA.
The involvement of such local level, practice oriented project members in European projects is intended to advance the Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation System (AKIS) and drive systemic change towards sustainable agriculture. Despite the policy ambition, the successful integration of OGs into HEU projects faces significant structural, administrative, and capacity barriers. Findings from the PREMIERE Focus Group revealed numerous obstacles. These include administrative burdens and limited funding reported by OG members, the lack of information reach regarding HEU opportunities, and the challenge of OGs frequently lacking legal entity status, forcing indirect participation. Furthermore, practitioners like farmers, and newcomers often lack the necessary experience or soft skills for interdisciplinary collaboration.
The application of the Multi-Actor Approach (MAA) in Horizon Europe proposals requires applicants to ensure the active involvement of representatives of the potential future users of the project’s results from the proposal stage through to the end of the project. Such a multi-actor involvement—including the co-creation partners’ financial remuneration—is expected to go beyond the traditional model of stakeholder engagement in case studies or expert groups, which was common practice in Research and Innovation Framework Programmes before 2013. The traditional role of stakeholders in a project remains valid. However, stakeholder engagement alone is not sufficient to meet the requirements for those Call Topics with mandatory application of the MAA. Actors such as village or nature conservation associations, agri-food cooperatives, small consultancy services, farm and forestry enterprises, or other rural businesses, as well as members of funded grass-root projects need to be involved as equal partners. The planning for such an involvement, however, raises many financial and administrative questions, when the number of practice actors needed is high, or when the relevant (small or newcomer) organisations have limited experience and financial administrative capacities. This handbook refers to the legal funding framework of Horizon Europe (2022-2027). These funding rules apply to all work programmes such as Clusters or Missions, and all types of projects. Consequently, the rules, pros and cons presented in this handbook apply to any kind of participatory and transdisciplinary collaboration concept of Horizon-funded applications. This handbook is not an official document of the European Commission but authored by PREMIERE members. For reliable legal advice, applicants should consult offical services such as National Contact Points or the Funding&Tender Helpdesk.
At the project Female-Led Innovation in Agriculture and Rural Areas (FLIARA) a range
of policy briefs has been developed and based on these policy briefs and other
outcomes of the project a Policy Booklet has been written. This report contains (Part A)
the policy booklet, (Part B) de policy briefs, and (Part C) a short introduction to the
process of coming to briefs and booklet.
The development of a simmulation play as a participatory workshop tool for multi-actor proposal writers is the results of the EU-project PREMIERE. One of the simulation games developed is the Multi-Actor siMulation plaY (MAMY). The game aims to create an understanding of the perceptions and points of view of the other multi-actors in the consortium. The learning experience of a role-play enhances the understanding of real-live participants in this particular type of funding measure as well as for advisors supporting such multi-actor project participants. Since spring 2023, the MAMY workshop has been tested in both, online and in-person seminars. The feedback from the participants, collected after each application was very positive. They confirmed that the simulation of participation in a co-creative project setting was eye opening. They felt potential synergies and conflicts emerging naturally when the different types of actors came together to navigate the proposal development process.
The Green Deal and the Farm-to-Fork strategy mirrored the policy objectives of the European Commission. A mix of policy programmes and measures was in place aiming to realise them in practice since 2014. The European Innovation Partnership for agricultural productivity and sustainability (EIP-AGRI) with its underlying ‘interactive innovation’ or ‘co-innovation’ is one of the policy approaches that aims to enhance the development of innovative solution for sustainable land use and rural business. Since 2012, the systematic implementation of co-innovation is underway because such a collaboration of diverse actors with complementary knowledge, based on participatory practices, is seen as a promising solution to aiming at a more sustainable future.
The purpose of this paper is to identify and cluster the needs identified for capacity development, as these are policy-driven factors, which are promising elements to speeding up innovation for a sustainable future in land use sectors and rural business. Moreover, the engagement with the ESEE community aims to refine the five principles presented by the authors and to move towards a European capacity development framework for the EIP-AGRI policy concept with its underlying co-innovation approach driving different funding streams for research and innovation projects.