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Climate change is a severe threat to the agricultural sector in general and to rainfed farming in particular. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors that can potentially affect the adaptation process against climate change. This study focused on wheat farmers and farming systems in the rainfed agroecological zone of Pakistan. Farmers’ data related to climate change fatalism, the availability of climate-specific extension services, socioeconomic and institutional variables, and farm characteristics were collected. A logit model to assess farmers’ decisions to adopt an adaptation measure and a multinomial logit model to assess their choice of various adaptation measures were used. The results showed that fatalistic farmers were unlikely to implement climate change adaptation measures. The variables related to the climate-specific extension services, including farmers’ participation in training on climate-resilient crop farming and the availability of mobile communication-based advisory services, had highly significant and positive impacts on farmers’ decisions and their choice of adaptation measures. Input market access and tractor ownership also had positive and significant impacts on farmers’ decisions to adapt and their choice of adaptation measures. This study highlights the need to improve rainfed-wheat farmers’ education levels to change their fatalistic attitudes towards climate change. Furthermore, government action is needed to provide climate-specific extension services to ensure sustainable production levels that will ultimately lead to food and livelihood security under a changing climate.
Rainfed farmers are among the most vulnerable farming communities to climate change in Pakistan because of the heavy reliance of crop farming on rain and of farmers’ livelihoods on crop farming. The best and most timely responses against climate change are suitable adaptation measures. Accurately perceiving the risks associated with climate change is an essential factor for planning and then implementing adaptations. Using farm household-level data of 400 rainfed farmers collected through a well-designed and field-tested questionnaire, this study examines the association between various adaptation stages (climate risk perceptions, adaptation planning, and implementation of adaptation) and their determinants using a multivariate probit (MVP) model. The findings indicate that farmers’ perceptions of climatic changes are in line with historical climatic data. Climate risk management (CRM) trainings and digital agriculture extension and communication (DAEC) services (indicators of formal institutional arrangements) show a highly significant impact on all adaptation stages. Input market distance, farmer cooperative meetings (an indicator of informal institutional arrangement), off-farm income, education, and number of male family members are among the other key determinants. A highly significant association between various adaptation stages indicates that accurate climate risk perceptions lead to planning and implementation of adaptations. When risk perceptions are underestimated or lacking, then adaptations do not occur. The results further indicate that the timely availability of reliable information on advanced agricultural inputs, weather parameters, crop farming advisory services, and market information could help rainfed farmers devise sound adaptations to minimize risks associated with climate change. The study recommends the provision of CRM trainings and DAEC services to provide a better understanding and promote sound adaptation planning through the adaptive capacity enhancement of rainfed farming communities for sustainable production and livelihood security.