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Water Budgets of Managed Forests in Northeast Germany under Climate Change - Results from a Model Study on Forest Monitoring Sites

  • To develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of forests to drought, it is necessary to estimate specific water balances in sites and to estimate their development with climate change scenarios. We quantified the water balance of seven forest monitoring sites in northeast Germany for the historical time period 1961–2019, and for climate change projections for the time period 2010–2100. We used the LWF-BROOK90 hydrological model forced with historical data, and bias-adjusted data from two models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) downscaled with regional climate models under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Site-specific monitoring data were used to give a realistic model input and to calibrate and validate the model. The results revealed significant trends (evapotranspiration, dry days (actual/potential transpiration < 0.7)) toward drier conditions within the historical time period and demonstrate the extreme conditions of 2018 and 2019. Under RCP8.5, both modelsTo develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of forests to drought, it is necessary to estimate specific water balances in sites and to estimate their development with climate change scenarios. We quantified the water balance of seven forest monitoring sites in northeast Germany for the historical time period 1961–2019, and for climate change projections for the time period 2010–2100. We used the LWF-BROOK90 hydrological model forced with historical data, and bias-adjusted data from two models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) downscaled with regional climate models under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Site-specific monitoring data were used to give a realistic model input and to calibrate and validate the model. The results revealed significant trends (evapotranspiration, dry days (actual/potential transpiration < 0.7)) toward drier conditions within the historical time period and demonstrate the extreme conditions of 2018 and 2019. Under RCP8.5, both models simulate an increase in evapotranspiration and dry days. The response of precipitation to climate change is ambiguous, with increasing precipitation with one model. Under RCP2.6, both models do not reveal an increase in drought in 2071–2100 compared to 1990–2019. The current temperature increase fits RCP8.5 simulations, suggesting that this scenario is more realistic than RCP2.6show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author:Daniel ZicheORCiD, Winfried Riek, Alexander Russ, Rainer Hentschel, Jan Martin
URN:urn:nbn:de:kobv:eb1-opus-2470
DOI:https://doi.org/10.3390/app11052403
ISSN:2076-3417
Parent Title (English):Applied Sciences
Publisher:MDPI
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Year of Completion:2021
Date of Publication (online):2022/06/17
Date of first Publication:2021/03/08
Publishing Institution:Hochschule für nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde
Release Date:2022/06/17
Tag:CMIP5; ICP Forest; LWF-BROOK90; RCP; drought; evapotranspiration; soil hydrological model; soil moisture
Volume:11
Issue:5
Article Number:2403
Page Number:18
Institutions / Departments:Fachbereich Wald und Umwelt
Dewey Decimal Classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie
6 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 63 Landwirtschaft / 634 Obstanlagen, Früchte, Forstwirtschaft
open_access (DINI-Set):open_access
University Bibliography:University Bibliography
Zweitveröffentlichung
Peer-Review / Referiert
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
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