TY - JOUR A1 - Müller, Adrian W. A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Assessing the functions and dimensions of visualizations in foresight JF - Foresight UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-04-2014-0027 Y1 - 2016 UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-04-2014-0027 SN - 1463-6689 VL - 18 IS - 1 SP - 76 EP - 90 PB - Emerald CY - Leeds ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Kroehl, Rixa A1 - von der Gracht, Heiko A. T1 - Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007 Y1 - 2013 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007 SN - 1873-5509 SN - 0040-1625 VL - 2014 IS - 84 SP - 66 EP - 73 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Liebl, Franz T1 - Cultural products and their implications for business models: Why science fiction needs socio-cultural fiction JF - Futures UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.03.006 Y1 - 2013 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.03.006 SN - 0016-3287 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 2013 IS - 50 SP - 66 EP - 73 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - von Groddeck, Victoria A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Perceiving megatrends as empty signifiers: A discourse-theoretical interpretation of trend management JF - Futures UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.004 Y1 - 2013 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.004 SN - 0016-3287 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 2013 IS - 47 SP - 28 EP - 37 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Ex ante strategy evaluation: the case for business wargaming JF - Business Strategy Series UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631111130095 KW - Strategic management Y1 - 2011 UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631111130095 SN - 1751-5637 VL - 12 IS - 3 SP - 122 EP - 135 PB - Emerald CY - Leeds ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Liebl, Franz A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight JF - Futures UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.017 Y1 - 2009 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.017 SN - 0016-3287 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 42 IS - 4 SP - 313 EP - 327 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Assessing the future of futures studies in management JF - Futures UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.018 Y1 - 2007 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.018 SN - 0016-3287 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 40 IS - 3 SP - 237 EP - 246 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Pitfalls in implementing a strategic early warning system JF - Foresight UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680510611813 Y1 - 2005 UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680510611813 SN - 1463-6689 VL - 7 IS - 4 SP - 22 EP - 30 PB - Emerald CY - Leeds ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Oriesek, Daniel F. A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Business Wargaming BT - Unternehmenswert schaffen und schützen UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-8288-9 Y1 - 2009 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-8288-9 SN - 978-3-8349-1879-6 SN - 978-3-8349-8288-9 PB - Gabler CY - Wiesbaden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pace, Lisa A. A1 - Bruno, Carmen A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Personas in scenario building: Integrating human-centred design methods in foresight JF - Futures N2 - This paper contributes to integrating human-centred design approaches in foresight. We emphasize design thinking as an approach that incorporates user-centred concepts and artefacts, enabling the creation and visualization of potential futures and mediating the exploration of new perspectives and areas of intervention for innovation. However, there is limited discussion in the foresight literature on the meaningful application of design approaches. We focus on the persona method and its roles and applications in scenario building. To be meaningful in scenario building, personas need to appropriately integrate users’ future needs, expectations and behaviours that shape and in turn are shaped by contexts that are yet to be realised. Based on an analysis of published case studies, the paper underscores the role of personas in fostering creative imagination, enhancing scenario engagement, and prospective sensemaking beyond their application as a storytelling vehicle in scenarios. We link persona characteristics and design to their roles in scenario building, allowing design and foresight practitioners the flexibility to tailor the persona approach to different contexts and critically assess the underlying limitations. From this, we provide recommendations for incorporating personas in scenario building and conclude with suggestions for future research. UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103539 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103539 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-57730 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 2025 IS - 166 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Schropp, Theresa Constanze A1 - Wach, Bernhard A1 - Buder, Fabian T1 - Do internal foresight activities add value to decision-making? Insights from an empirical investigation JF - Futures N2 - In a large empirical investigation of 400 managers in large U.S. and European corporations, we shed light on the effects of internal strategic foresight activities for decision-making, asking whether and how firms’ internal foresight activities add value to their decision-making. Enabling and supporting strategy conversations is conceptualized here as a central activity of strategic foresight. Our empirical investigation demonstrates that internal foresight activities have a significant and positive effect on strategy conversations within a firm. Against the assumptions of previous research, however, we cannot confirm the positive influence of strategy conversations in general on challenging the status quo in a firm or the overall helpfulness of strategic foresight activities in the context of decision-making. Future research should delve deeper into organizational studies to gain a more nuanced understanding of the processes and factors influencing future-oriented decision-making, as well as identifying key enablers that facilitate these decisions. UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103548 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103548 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-57703 SN - 0016-3287 VL - 2025 IS - 166 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dörr, Ulrike-Sabine A1 - Schönhofer, Gerhard A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - The state of foresight in small and medium enterprises: literature review and research agenda JF - European Journal of Futures Research N2 - AbstractSmall and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of many economies. In today's world of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), SMEs face diverse challenges to survive and stay competitive. SMEs must prepare themselves for these challenges by practicing foresight. However, foresight, and especially corporate foresight, has been conceptualized and researched in the context of large corporations. Applying foresight in SMEs is therefore complicated by the question of how to implement foresight in the context of SMEs given their specific requirements and limitations. This article provides an overview on the literature on the application of foresight in SMEs is, along with a summary of the extent to which SMEs conduct foresight from an organizational and individual perspective. Besides offering a compendium on the state of foresight in SMEs, a research agenda is formulated, incorporating the idea of a toolbox tailored to SMEs based on existing approaches and prior works. UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-024-00237-1 Y1 - 2024 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-024-00237-1 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-50522 SN - 2195-2248 VL - 12 IS - 1 PB - SpringerOpen CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zehnder, Elena A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - The interplay of future making and foresight: Insights from a family business case study JF - Futures UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103608 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103608 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 2025 IS - 170 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Boddenberg, Felix A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Schmies, Peter T1 - Scenario Planning in the Digital Transformation of the Fashion Industry: Starting Point for the Adjustment of Business Processes from a Colour Management Perspective JF - Journal of Futures Studies UR - https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202403_28(3).0004 Y1 - 2024 UR - https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202403_28(3).0004 SN - 1027-6084 VL - 28 IS - 3 SP - 49 EP - 63 PB - Tamkang University CY - Taipei ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Wach, Bernhard T1 - The usage of cultural products in design thinking: An assessment of an underestimated approach JF - The Design Journal UR - https://doi.org/10.1080/14606925.2021.2005879 KW - design thinking KW - design research KW - cultural products KW - customers KW - ethnography Y1 - 2022 UR - https://doi.org/10.1080/14606925.2021.2005879 SN - 1460-6925 SN - 1756-3062 VL - 25 IS - 1 SP - 4 EP - 24 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Oriesek, Daniel F. A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Winning the Uncertainty Game BT - Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming UR - https://doi.org/10.4324/9780367853594 Y1 - 2021 UR - https://doi.org/10.4324/9780367853594 SN - 978-0-367-85359-4 SN - 978-0-367-41852-6 PB - Routledge CY - London ; New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - From alternative pictures of the future to an organizational intervention: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol JF - Futures & Foresight Science UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.105 Y1 - 2021 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.105 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-18942 SN - 2573-5152 VL - 4 IS - 1 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Oriesek, Daniel F. A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming JF - PM World Journal Y1 - 2021 UR - https://pmworldlibrary.net/pmworld-journal-archives/ SN - 2330-4480 VL - X IS - VIII PB - PM World CY - Dallas ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming from an Open Strategy Perspective JF - World Futures Review N2 - The key aim of Open Strategy is to open up the process of strategy development to larger groups within and even outside an organization. Furthermore, Open Strategy aims to include broad groups of stakeholders in the various steps of the strategy process. The question at hand is how can Open Strategy be achieved? What approaches can be used? Scenario planning and business wargaming are approaches perceived as relevant tools in the field of strategy and strategic foresight and in the context of Open Strategy because of their participative nature. The aim of this article is to assess to what degree scenario planning and business wargaming can be used in the context of Open Strategy. While these approaches are suitable, their current application limits the number of potential participants. Further research and experimentation in practice with larger groups and/or online approaches, or a combination of both, are needed to explore the potential of scenario planning and business wargaming as tools for Open Strategy. UR - https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182 KW - Open Strategy KW - foresight KW - scenario planning KW - business wargaming Y1 - 2020 UR - https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-18967 SN - 2169-2793 VL - 12 IS - 3 SP - 291 EP - 303 PB - Sage Publishing CY - Thousand Oaks ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Eller, Eric A1 - Hofmann, Rupert A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - The Customer Foresight Territory JF - Marketing Review St Gallen Y1 - 2020 UR - https://imc.unisg.ch/shop/marketing-review-st-gallen-3-2020-customer-foresight/ VL - 2020 IS - 3 SP - 888 EP - 895 PB - Universität St. Gallen CY - St. Gallen ER -