TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Wach, Bernhard A1 - Rohrbeck, René T1 - How to anchor design thinking in the future BT - Empirical evidence on the usage of strategic foresight in design thinking projects JF - Futures N2 - Many organizations use design thinking (DT) to develop future products and services. DT is often used for its ability to serve as a common “language” and platform to enable market-facing departments and technology-oriented units to cocreate innovations. DT has been shown to be a powerful tool for helping to identify and connect the needs of average customers (personas) with technical solutions that form the basis for winning products. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which DT professionals already use strategic foresight (SF) methods that anticipate future customer needs and highlight emerging technologies to expand classical DT and anchor their projects in the future. Using survey data on 302 DT projects, we report on the extent to which SF methods are used in DT projects, the overriding types of SF methods in DT projects, and their impact on project success. UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103137 KW - Design thinking KW - Strategic foresight KW - Trends KW - Scenarios KW - Science fiction Y1 - 2023 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103137 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-36135 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 2023 IS - 149 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rohrbeck, René A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - The value contribution of strategic foresight BT - Insights from an empirical study of large European companies JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.01.004 KW - Strategic foresight KW - Value creation KW - Weak signals KW - Organizational future orientation Y1 - 2013 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.01.004 SN - 0040-1625 VL - 80 (2013) IS - 8 SP - 1593 EP - 1606 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - The ‘Narrative Turn’ in developing foresight BT - Assessing how cultural products can assist organisations in detecting trends JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.024 KW - Foresight KW - Trends KW - Cultural products KW - Narratives Y1 - 2014 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.024 SN - 0040-1625 VL - 2015 IS - 90, Part B SP - 510 EP - 513 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Oriesek, Daniel F. A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Winning the Uncertainty Game BT - Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming UR - https://doi.org/10.4324/9780367853594 Y1 - 2021 UR - https://doi.org/10.4324/9780367853594 SN - 978-0-367-85359-4 SN - 978-0-367-41852-6 PB - Routledge CY - London ; New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming from an Open Strategy Perspective JF - World Futures Review N2 - The key aim of Open Strategy is to open up the process of strategy development to larger groups within and even outside an organization. Furthermore, Open Strategy aims to include broad groups of stakeholders in the various steps of the strategy process. The question at hand is how can Open Strategy be achieved? What approaches can be used? Scenario planning and business wargaming are approaches perceived as relevant tools in the field of strategy and strategic foresight and in the context of Open Strategy because of their participative nature. The aim of this article is to assess to what degree scenario planning and business wargaming can be used in the context of Open Strategy. While these approaches are suitable, their current application limits the number of potential participants. Further research and experimentation in practice with larger groups and/or online approaches, or a combination of both, are needed to explore the potential of scenario planning and business wargaming as tools for Open Strategy. UR - https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182 KW - Open Strategy KW - foresight KW - scenario planning KW - business wargaming Y1 - 2020 UR - https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-18967 SN - 2169-2793 VL - 12 (2020) IS - 3 SP - 291 EP - 303 PB - Sage Publishing CY - Thousand Oaks (CA) ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Eller, Eric A1 - Hofmann, Rupert A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - The Customer Foresight Territory JF - Marketing Review St Gallen Y1 - 2020 UR - https://imc.unisg.ch/shop/marketing-review-st-gallen-3-2020-customer-foresight/ VL - 2020 IS - 3 SP - 888 EP - 895 PB - Universität St. Gallen CY - St. Gallen ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Strategic Foresight BT - An Introductory Guide to Practice UR - https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003302735 Y1 - 2023 UR - https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003302735 SN - 9781003302735 PB - Routledge CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Ram, Camelia A1 - Rohrbeck, René T1 - Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics JF - Futures N2 - The deliberate exploration of how the future competitive landscape may evolve is critical to uncovering threats and opportunities for firms that seek to improve their core businesses and advance to a superior position in the markets of the future. While techniques such as business wargaming can effectively support this process, such techniques can benefit from placing competitive considerations within a broader future landscape shaped by geopolitical, social, technological and economic forces. Scenario planning allows for the exploration of interactions across multiple external forces to create a rich set of narratives on how the future may unfold. This paper will discuss the potential of combining scenario planning and business wargaming to enable strategists to anticipate moves and countermoves and foresee their consequences. We use a real-life case study to illustrate how a scenario-planning exercise can guide the crucial stage of selecting relevant future competitors of a firm prior to engaging in a business-war-gaming exercise. We then introduce what we term the prospective competitive strategy process to guide the analysis of potential competitive dynamics, emphasizing the synergies between scenario planning and business wargaming. UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001 Y1 - 2019 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-41938 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 105 SP - 133 EP - 142 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Kroehl, Rixa A1 - von der Gracht, Heiko A. T1 - Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007 Y1 - 2013 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007 SN - 1873-5509 SN - 0040-1625 VL - 2014 IS - 84 SP - 66 EP - 73 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Oriesek, Daniel F. A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Business Wargaming BT - Unternehmenswert schaffen und schützen UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-8288-9 Y1 - 2009 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-8288-9 SN - 978-3-8349-1879-6 SN - 978-3-8349-8288-9 PB - Gabler CY - Wiesbaden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Liebl, Franz T1 - Cultural products and their implications for business models: Why science fiction needs socio-cultural fiction JF - Futures UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.03.006 Y1 - 2013 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.03.006 SN - 0016-3287 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 2013 IS - 50 SP - 66 EP - 73 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Liebl, Franz A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight JF - Futures UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.017 Y1 - 2009 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.017 SN - 0016-3287 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 42 IS - 4 SP - 313 EP - 327 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Ex ante strategy evaluation: the case for business wargaming JF - Business Strategy Series UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631111130095 KW - Strategic management Y1 - 2011 UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631111130095 SN - 1751-5637 VL - 12 IS - 3 SP - 122 EP - 135 PB - Emerald CY - Leeds ER - TY - JOUR A1 - von Groddeck, Victoria A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Perceiving megatrends as empty signifiers: A discourse-theoretical interpretation of trend management JF - Futures UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.004 Y1 - 2013 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.004 SN - 0016-3287 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 2013 IS - 47 SP - 28 EP - 37 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Müller, Adrian W. A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Assessing the functions and dimensions of visualizations in foresight JF - Foresight UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-04-2014-0027 Y1 - 2016 UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-04-2014-0027 SN - 1463-6689 VL - 18 IS - 1 SP - 76 EP - 90 PB - Emerald CY - Leeds ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Assessing the future of futures studies in management JF - Futures UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.018 Y1 - 2007 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.018 SN - 0016-3287 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 40 IS - 3 SP - 237 EP - 246 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Pitfalls in implementing a strategic early warning system JF - Foresight UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680510611813 Y1 - 2005 UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680510611813 SN - 1463-6689 VL - 7 IS - 4 SP - 22 EP - 30 PB - Emerald CY - Leeds ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gordon, Adam A1 - Rohrbeck, René A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Escaping the ‘Faster Horses’ Trap: Bridging Strategic Foresight and Design-Based Innovation JF - Technology Innovation Management Review N2 - Design thinking is inherently and invariably oriented towards the future in that all design is for products, services or events that will exist in the future, and be used by people in the future. This creates an overlap between the domains of design thinking and strategic foresight. A small but significant literature has grown up in the strategic foresight field as to how design thinking may be used to improve its processes. This paper considers the other side of the relationship: how methods from the strategic foresight field may advance design thinking, improving insight into the needs and preferences of users of tomorrow, including how contextual change may suddenly and fundamentally reshape these. A side-by-side comparison of representative models from each field is presented, and it is shown how these may be assembled together to create a foresight-informed design thinking process. UR - https://doi.org/10.22215/timreview/1259 Y1 - 2019 UR - https://doi.org/10.22215/timreview/1259 SN - 1927-0321 VL - 9 IS - 8 SP - 30 EP - 42 PB - Talent First Network CY - Ottawa ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schropp, Theresa A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Buder, Fabian T1 - Corporate foresight in light of the COVID‐19 pandemic—The crisis as a driver? JF - Futures & Foresight Science N2 - AbstractOur study emphasizes the evolving nature and increasing relevance of corporate foresight (CF) in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. This research, therefore, contributes to the foresight literature, concerned with the antecedents and motivators of CF as it investigates how external events that are characterized by great uncertainty influence the CF practice of large companies. On the example of the COVID‐19 pandemic and based on a study of 25 interviews, this empirical research reveals that such events provoke an intensified engagement with the future within companies as implied by a greater resource commitment and interest in foresight. Thereby, CF and especially the development of multiple future scenarios, are considered helpful in countering uncertainty and facilitating responsiveness. UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178 Y1 - 2024 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-45121 SN - 2573-5152 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Rohrbeck, René A1 - Wach, Bernhard T1 - Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities JF - Futures & Foresight Science UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.28 KW - corporate foresight KW - dynamic capabilities KW - futures KW - microfoundation KW - peripheral vision KW - strategic foresight Y1 - 2020 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.28 SN - 2573-5152 VL - 2 IS - 2 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Wach, Bernhard T1 - The usage of cultural products in design thinking: An assessment of an underestimated approach JF - The Design Journal UR - https://doi.org/10.1080/14606925.2021.2005879 KW - design thinking KW - design research KW - cultural products KW - customers KW - ethnography Y1 - 2022 UR - https://doi.org/10.1080/14606925.2021.2005879 SN - 1460-6925 SN - 1756-3062 VL - 25 IS - 1 SP - 4 EP - 24 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Koebe, Philipp A1 - Schillings, Tobias A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - How Superintelligence Affects Human Health: A Scenario Analysis JF - Journal of Futures Studies UR - https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202312_28(2).0005 Y1 - 2023 UR - https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202312_28(2).0005 SN - 1027-6084 VL - 28 IS - 2 SP - 79 EP - 99 PB - Tamkang University CY - Taipei ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - From alternative pictures of the future to an organizational intervention: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol JF - Futures & Foresight Science UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.105 Y1 - 2021 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.105 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-18942 SN - 2573-5152 VL - 4 IS - 1 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Oriesek, Daniel F. A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming JF - PM World Journal Y1 - 2021 UR - https://pmworldlibrary.net/pmworld-journal-archives/ SN - 2330-4480 VL - X IS - VIII PB - PM World CY - Dallas ER -