TY - BOOK A1 - Oriesek, Daniel F. A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Winning the Uncertainty Game BT - Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming UR - https://doi.org/10.4324/9780367853594 Y1 - 2021 UR - https://doi.org/10.4324/9780367853594 SN - 978-0-367-85359-4 SN - 978-0-367-41852-6 PB - Routledge CY - London ; New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schropp, Theresa A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Buder, Fabian T1 - Corporate foresight in light of the COVID‐19 pandemic—The crisis as a driver? JF - Futures & Foresight Science N2 - AbstractOur study emphasizes the evolving nature and increasing relevance of corporate foresight (CF) in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. This research, therefore, contributes to the foresight literature, concerned with the antecedents and motivators of CF as it investigates how external events that are characterized by great uncertainty influence the CF practice of large companies. On the example of the COVID‐19 pandemic and based on a study of 25 interviews, this empirical research reveals that such events provoke an intensified engagement with the future within companies as implied by a greater resource commitment and interest in foresight. Thereby, CF and especially the development of multiple future scenarios, are considered helpful in countering uncertainty and facilitating responsiveness. UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178 Y1 - 2024 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-45121 SN - 2573-5152 VL - 6 IS - 2 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Ram, Camelia A1 - Rohrbeck, René T1 - Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics JF - Futures N2 - The deliberate exploration of how the future competitive landscape may evolve is critical to uncovering threats and opportunities for firms that seek to improve their core businesses and advance to a superior position in the markets of the future. While techniques such as business wargaming can effectively support this process, such techniques can benefit from placing competitive considerations within a broader future landscape shaped by geopolitical, social, technological and economic forces. Scenario planning allows for the exploration of interactions across multiple external forces to create a rich set of narratives on how the future may unfold. This paper will discuss the potential of combining scenario planning and business wargaming to enable strategists to anticipate moves and countermoves and foresee their consequences. We use a real-life case study to illustrate how a scenario-planning exercise can guide the crucial stage of selecting relevant future competitors of a firm prior to engaging in a business-war-gaming exercise. We then introduce what we term the prospective competitive strategy process to guide the analysis of potential competitive dynamics, emphasizing the synergies between scenario planning and business wargaming. UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001 Y1 - 2019 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-41938 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 105 SP - 133 EP - 142 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Kroehl, Rixa A1 - von der Gracht, Heiko A. T1 - Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007 Y1 - 2013 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007 SN - 1873-5509 SN - 0040-1625 VL - 2014 IS - 84 SP - 66 EP - 73 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Oriesek, Daniel F. A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Business Wargaming BT - Unternehmenswert schaffen und schützen UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-8288-9 Y1 - 2009 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-8288-9 SN - 978-3-8349-1879-6 SN - 978-3-8349-8288-9 PB - Gabler CY - Wiesbaden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver A1 - Liebl, Franz T1 - Cultural products and their implications for business models: Why science fiction needs socio-cultural fiction JF - Futures UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.03.006 Y1 - 2013 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.03.006 SN - 0016-3287 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 2013 IS - 50 SP - 66 EP - 73 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Liebl, Franz A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight JF - Futures UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.017 Y1 - 2009 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.017 SN - 0016-3287 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 42 IS - 4 SP - 313 EP - 327 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Ex ante strategy evaluation: the case for business wargaming JF - Business Strategy Series UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631111130095 KW - Strategic management Y1 - 2011 UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631111130095 SN - 1751-5637 VL - 12 IS - 3 SP - 122 EP - 135 PB - Emerald CY - Leeds ER - TY - JOUR A1 - von Groddeck, Victoria A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Perceiving megatrends as empty signifiers: A discourse-theoretical interpretation of trend management JF - Futures UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.004 Y1 - 2013 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.004 SN - 0016-3287 SN - 1873-6378 VL - 2013 IS - 47 SP - 28 EP - 37 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Müller, Adrian W. A1 - Schwarz, Jan Oliver T1 - Assessing the functions and dimensions of visualizations in foresight JF - Foresight UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-04-2014-0027 Y1 - 2016 UR - https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-04-2014-0027 SN - 1463-6689 VL - 18 IS - 1 SP - 76 EP - 90 PB - Emerald CY - Leeds ER -