TY - JOUR A1 - Borgmann, Stefan A1 - Meintrup, David A1 - Reimer, Kerstin A1 - Schels, Helmut A1 - Nowak-Machen, Martina T1 - Incidence and Death Rates from COVID-19 Are Not Always Coupled: An Analysis of Temporal Data on Local, Federal, and National Levels JF - Healthcare N2 - SARS-CoV-2 has caused a deadly pandemic worldwide, placing a burden on local health care systems and economies. Infection rates with SARS-CoV-2 and the related mortality of COVID-19 are not equal among countries or even neighboring regions. Based on data from official German health authorities since the beginning of the pandemic, we developed a case-fatality prediction model that correctly predicts COVID-19-related death rates based on local geographical developments of infection rates in Germany, Bavaria, and a local community district city within Upper Bavaria. Our data point towards the proposal that local individual infection thresholds, when reached, could lead to increasing mortality. Restrictive measures to minimize the spread of the virus could be applied locally based on the risk of reaching the individual threshold. Being able to predict the necessity for increasing hospitalization of COVID-19 patients could help local health care authorities to prepare for increasing patient numbers. UR - https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9030338 KW - time series analysis KW - COVID-19 incidence KW - case-fatality rate KW - herd immunity KW - Upper Bavaria Y1 - 2021 UR - https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9030338 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:573-11023 SN - 2227-9032 VL - 9 IS - 3 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER -