@inbook{KruegerBechtholdPruegl2023, author = {Kr{\"u}ger, Clemens and Bechthold, Laura and Pr{\"u}gl, Reinhard}, title = {Serious games to study the management of paradoxes in family firms: Introducing a research agenda}, booktitle = {Research Handbook on Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Family Firms}, editor = {Kraus, Sascha and Clauss, Thomas and Kallmuenzer, Andreas}, publisher = {Edward Elgar Publishing}, address = {Cheltenham}, isbn = {978-1-80088-924-8}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800889248.00026}, pages = {391 -- 412}, year = {2023}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{SchoenmannLodesSchiendorfer2023, author = {Sch{\"o}nmann, Alexander and Lodes, Lukas and Schiendorfer, Alexander}, title = {KI-Augmentation der Reifegradbewertung von Technologien: K{\"o}nnen KI-Sprachmodelle Expertenwissen ersetzen?}, booktitle = {Vorausschau und Technologieplanung: 17. Symposium f{\"u}r Vorausschau und Technologieplanung, 14. und 15. September 2023, Berlin}, editor = {Dumitrescu, Roman and H{\"o}lzle, Katharina}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}t Paderborn}, address = {Paderborn}, isbn = {978-3-947647-32-3}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.17619/UNIPB/1-1821}, pages = {371 -- 387}, year = {2023}, language = {de} } @article{PaceBrunoSchwarz2025, author = {Pace, Lisa A. and Bruno, Carmen and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Personas in scenario building: Integrating human-centred design methods in foresight}, volume = {2025}, pages = {103539}, journal = {Futures}, number = {166}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1873-6378}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103539}, year = {2025}, abstract = {This paper contributes to integrating human-centred design approaches in foresight. We emphasize design thinking as an approach that incorporates user-centred concepts and artefacts, enabling the creation and visualization of potential futures and mediating the exploration of new perspectives and areas of intervention for innovation. However, there is limited discussion in the foresight literature on the meaningful application of design approaches. We focus on the persona method and its roles and applications in scenario building. To be meaningful in scenario building, personas need to appropriately integrate users' future needs, expectations and behaviours that shape and in turn are shaped by contexts that are yet to be realised. Based on an analysis of published case studies, the paper underscores the role of personas in fostering creative imagination, enhancing scenario engagement, and prospective sensemaking beyond their application as a storytelling vehicle in scenarios. We link persona characteristics and design to their roles in scenario building, allowing design and foresight practitioners the flexibility to tailor the persona approach to different contexts and critically assess the underlying limitations. From this, we provide recommendations for incorporating personas in scenario building and conclude with suggestions for future research.}, language = {en} } @article{SchwarzSchroppWachetal.2025, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Schropp, Theresa Constanze and Wach, Bernhard and Buder, Fabian}, title = {Do internal foresight activities add value to decision-making? Insights from an empirical investigation}, volume = {2025}, pages = {103548}, journal = {Futures}, number = {166}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0016-3287}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103548}, year = {2025}, abstract = {In a large empirical investigation of 400 managers in large U.S. and European corporations, we shed light on the effects of internal strategic foresight activities for decision-making, asking whether and how firms' internal foresight activities add value to their decision-making. Enabling and supporting strategy conversations is conceptualized here as a central activity of strategic foresight. Our empirical investigation demonstrates that internal foresight activities have a significant and positive effect on strategy conversations within a firm. Against the assumptions of previous research, however, we cannot confirm the positive influence of strategy conversations in general on challenging the status quo in a firm or the overall helpfulness of strategic foresight activities in the context of decision-making. Future research should delve deeper into organizational studies to gain a more nuanced understanding of the processes and factors influencing future-oriented decision-making, as well as identifying key enablers that facilitate these decisions.}, language = {en} } @article{DoerrSchoenhoferSchwarz2024, author = {D{\"o}rr, Ulrike-Sabine and Sch{\"o}nhofer, Gerhard and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {The state of foresight in small and medium enterprises: literature review and research agenda}, volume = {12}, pages = {16}, journal = {European Journal of Futures Research}, number = {1}, publisher = {SpringerOpen}, address = {Heidelberg}, issn = {2195-2248}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-024-00237-1}, year = {2024}, abstract = {AbstractSmall and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of many economies. In today's world of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), SMEs face diverse challenges to survive and stay competitive. SMEs must prepare themselves for these challenges by practicing foresight. However, foresight, and especially corporate foresight, has been conceptualized and researched in the context of large corporations. Applying foresight in SMEs is therefore complicated by the question of how to implement foresight in the context of SMEs given their specific requirements and limitations. This article provides an overview on the literature on the application of foresight in SMEs is, along with a summary of the extent to which SMEs conduct foresight from an organizational and individual perspective. Besides offering a compendium on the state of foresight in SMEs, a research agenda is formulated, incorporating the idea of a toolbox tailored to SMEs based on existing approaches and prior works.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{Schoenmann2025, author = {Sch{\"o}nmann, Alexander}, title = {Transformation Needs Adoption: A Conceptual Framework to Develop Technology Implementation Strategies}, booktitle = {Production at the Leading Edge of Technology: Proceedings of the 14th Congress of the German Academic Association for Production Technology (WGP), Chemnitz University of Technology, December 2024}, editor = {Drossel, Welf-Guntram and Ihlenfeldt, Steffen and Dix, Martin}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Cham}, isbn = {978-3-031-86893-1}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-86893-1_68}, pages = {627 -- 635}, year = {2025}, language = {en} } @article{ZehnderSchwarz2025, author = {Zehnder, Elena and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {The interplay of future making and foresight: Insights from a family business case study}, volume = {2025}, pages = {103608}, journal = {Futures}, number = {170}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1873-6378}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103608}, year = {2025}, language = {en} } @article{BoddenbergSchwarzSchmies2024, author = {Boddenberg, Felix and Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Schmies, Peter}, title = {Scenario Planning in the Digital Transformation of the Fashion Industry: Starting Point for the Adjustment of Business Processes from a Colour Management Perspective}, volume = {28}, journal = {Journal of Futures Studies}, number = {3}, publisher = {Tamkang University}, address = {Taipei}, issn = {1027-6084}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202403_28(3).0004}, pages = {49 -- 63}, year = {2024}, language = {en} } @article{Bechthold2025, author = {Bechthold, Laura}, title = {Rendering new futures or enshrining pictures of the past? The double-edged sword of using AI-generated imagery for anticipation}, journal = {Journal of Futures Studies}, publisher = {Tamkang University}, address = {Taipei}, issn = {1027-6084}, url = {https://jfsdigital.org/rendering-new-futures-or-enshrining-pictures-of-the-past-the-double-edged-sword-of-using-ai-generated-imagery-for-anticipation/}, year = {2025}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{MoserWrobelSchoenmann2024, author = {Moser, Christina and Wrobel, Stefanie and Sch{\"o}nmann, Alexander}, title = {Open Foresight als Ansatz einer ressourceneffizienten strategischen Vorausschau f{\"u}r KMU}, booktitle = {Vorausschau und Technologieplanung : 18. Symposium f{\"u}r Vorausschau und Technologieplanung, 5. und 6. Dezember 2024, Berlin}, editor = {Dumitrescu, Roman and H{\"o}lzle, Katharina}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}t Paderborn}, address = {Paderborn}, isbn = {978-3-947647-44-6}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.17619/UNIPB/1-2163}, pages = {193 -- 212}, year = {2024}, language = {de} } @article{SchwarzWachRohrbeck2023, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Wach, Bernhard and Rohrbeck, Ren{\´e}}, title = {How to anchor design thinking in the future: Empirical evidence on the usage of strategic foresight in design thinking projects}, volume = {2023}, pages = {103137}, journal = {Futures}, number = {149}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1873-6378}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103137}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Many organizations use design thinking (DT) to develop future products and services. DT is often used for its ability to serve as a common "language" and platform to enable market-facing departments and technology-oriented units to cocreate innovations. DT has been shown to be a powerful tool for helping to identify and connect the needs of average customers (personas) with technical solutions that form the basis for winning products. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which DT professionals already use strategic foresight (SF) methods that anticipate future customer needs and highlight emerging technologies to expand classical DT and anchor their projects in the future. Using survey data on 302 DT projects, we report on the extent to which SF methods are used in DT projects, the overriding types of SF methods in DT projects, and their impact on project success.}, language = {en} } @book{Schwarz2023, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Strategic Foresight}, subtitle = {An Introductory Guide to Practice}, publisher = {Routledge}, address = {London}, isbn = {9781003302735}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003302735}, pages = {ix, 170}, year = {2023}, language = {en} } @inbook{Schropp2023, author = {Schropp, Theresa Constanze}, title = {Historical development of strategic foresight}, booktitle = {Strategic Foresight}, publisher = {Routledge}, address = {London}, isbn = {978-1-003-30273-5}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003302735-3}, pages = {11 -- 19}, year = {2023}, language = {en} } @article{WachSchwarzvonHeld2024, author = {Wach, Bernhard and Schwarz, Jan Oliver and von Held, Felix}, title = {Corporate foresight for the benefit of corporates' innovation climate}, volume = {7}, pages = {e195}, journal = {Futures \& Foresight Science}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2573-5152}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.195}, year = {2024}, abstract = {Corporate foresight (CF) can be considered a future-oriented capability that incorporates perceiving and prospecting. Extant CF-related studies tackle the CF-innovation relationship but do not provide details on how CF relates to innovation climate. As we assume that the innovation climate of companies is a relevant antecedent to innovation, we conduct a quantitative empirical study with 147 upper-tier managers to investigate how CF and the respective training of managers relate to a corporate's innovation climate. Results show that strong perceiving and prospecting positively influence the innovation climate, whereby prospecting is of particular importance. Further, we find that training managers in future-oriented capabilities is only under certain circumstances (i.e., low prospecting) beneficial to the innovation climate in companies.}, language = {en} } @inbook{KoebeSchwarz2024, author = {K{\"o}be, Philipp and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Superintelligenzen in der Technologie-gest{\"u}tzten Gesundheitsversorgung: Szenarien zu den Chancen und Risiken f{\"u}r Mensch und Gesundheit}, booktitle = {Technologien und Technologiemanagement im Gesundheitswesen: Potenziale nutzen, L{\"o}sungen entwickeln, Ziele erreichen}, editor = {Pfannstiel, Mario A.}, publisher = {Springer Gabler}, address = {Wiesbaden}, isbn = {978-3-658-43860-9}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-43860-9_35}, pages = {679 -- 698}, year = {2024}, language = {de} } @article{KoebeSchillingsSchwarz2023, author = {Koebe, Philipp and Schillings, Tobias and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {How Superintelligence Affects Human Health: A Scenario Analysis}, volume = {28}, journal = {Journal of Futures Studies}, number = {2}, publisher = {Tamkang University}, address = {Taipei}, issn = {1027-6084}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202312_28(2).0005}, pages = {79 -- 99}, year = {2023}, language = {en} } @inbook{Bechthold2024, author = {Bechthold, Laura}, title = {{\"U}ber die Kraft des Zweifels und wahren Fortschritt}, booktitle = {Das große Buch der Strategie: Von der Reformation bis zur digitalen Transformation}, subtitle = {Wie sich die Generation Y mit Vordenkern aus der ganzen Welt auf die Suche nach einer erstrebenswerten Zukunft machte.}, editor = {Wreschniok, Robert}, publisher = {Franz Vahlen}, address = {M{\"u}nchen}, isbn = {978-3-8006-7198-4}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.15358/9783800671984-136}, pages = {136 -- 155}, year = {2024}, language = {de} } @article{SchroppSchwarzBuder2024, author = {Schropp, Theresa Constanze and Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Buder, Fabian}, title = {Corporate foresight in light of the COVID-19 pandemic—The crisis as a driver?}, volume = {6}, pages = {e178}, journal = {Futures \& Foresight Science}, number = {2}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2573-5152}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178}, year = {2024}, abstract = {AbstractOur study emphasizes the evolving nature and increasing relevance of corporate foresight (CF) in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. This research, therefore, contributes to the foresight literature, concerned with the antecedents and motivators of CF as it investigates how external events that are characterized by great uncertainty influence the CF practice of large companies. On the example of the COVID-19 pandemic and based on a study of 25 interviews, this empirical research reveals that such events provoke an intensified engagement with the future within companies as implied by a greater resource commitment and interest in foresight. Thereby, CF and especially the development of multiple future scenarios, are considered helpful in countering uncertainty and facilitating responsiveness.}, language = {en} } @book{vonHeldSchwarz2024, author = {von Held, Felix and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Robust Leadership}, subtitle = {Sicheres F{\"u}hren in unsicheren Zeiten}, publisher = {Frankfurter Allegmeine Buch}, address = {Frankfurt am Main}, isbn = {978-3-96251-205-7}, pages = {159}, year = {2024}, language = {de} } @article{SchoenhoferKomonenSchwarzetal.2026, author = {Sch{\"o}nhofer, Gerhard and Komonen, Pauli and Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Bechthold, Laura}, title = {Futures of Everyday Life: A Qualitative Content Analysis of Future Personas in Scenarios}, volume = {8}, pages = {e70030}, journal = {Futures \& Foresight Science}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2573-5152}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.70030}, year = {2026}, abstract = {Scenario reports, holding a long-standing tradition in foresight and futures studies, act as an essential document for organizations to prepare for possible, plausible, and alternative futures. Focusing on descriptions and representations of everyday life, we examined 29 future persona narratives from six publications—covering a wide field from public to private sector—through qualitative content analysis. Our guiding question is: How can anthropological perspectives such as cultural relativism or postcolonial discourses contribute to an in-depth, qualitative interpretation depictions of future everyday life? Acknowledging anthropology's colonial origins and its growing commitment to the interests of indigenous and other marginalized groups, we offer alternative readings of prominent scenario reports. Our findings suggest that scenario reports, in addition to anticipating possible futures, construct certain futures based on a systematic analysis of empirical data but also speculative interpretation. The results of these interpretative acts often appear elitist, stereotypical, and technocratic, often replicating dominant societal narratives rather than fostering substantive shifts in how the future is imagined. We therefore call for a more polyphonic representation of futures in scenario writing and foresight work that can produce more discontinuous and transformative images of the future. We understand polyphonic representations as coined by various independent, predominant as well as subaltern perspectives on the same issue at stake while being offered the same amount of space. Therefore, as we will indicate in our analysis, most of the reports referred to are rather monophonic and do not offer discuptive perspectives on the future of everyday life. As an avenue of methodological development, we propose a more nuanced and comprehensive perception of culture and social structures in scenario narrative writing. In addition, ethnographic methods could increase our understanding of how futures are collaboratively constructed and produced by different actors and their respective backgrounds and knowledge in scenario processes.}, language = {en} } @inbook{BechtholdWiesmueller2026, author = {Bechthold, Laura and Wiesm{\"u}ller, Sabine}, title = {Corporate Digital Responsibility im Zeitalter der k{\"u}nstlichen Intelligenz - Eine praktische Einf{\"u}hrung}, booktitle = {Regenerative Zuk{\"u}nfte und k{\"u}nstliche Intelligenz: Band 3: PROFIT}, editor = {Gondlach, Kai and Brinkmann, Birgit and Brinkmann, Mark and Plath, Julia}, publisher = {Springer VS}, address = {Wiesbaden}, isbn = {978-3-658-46577-3}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-46577-3_6}, pages = {57 -- 72}, year = {2026}, language = {de} } @article{SchimpfLausterSchwarzetal.2026, author = {Schimpf, Sven and Lauster, Michael and Schwarz, Jan Oliver and John, Marcus}, title = {Science fiction and innovation: A literature analysis on science fiction-related methods mapped into the innovation process}, volume = {2026}, pages = {103770}, journal = {Futures}, number = {177}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1873-6378}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2026.103770}, year = {2026}, abstract = {In the development of innovations over the past decades, data-driven methods have become commonplace. Alongside advantages in effectiveness and efficiency comes the danger of relying on data describing past rather than future developments which can result in a loss of imagination and creativity. In parallel, a growing awareness of the interface between innovation and science fiction can be observed in academia and among practitioners. This awareness is most often based on the hypothesis that taking inspiration from science fiction can create value in the development of innovations. Despite numerous case studies in the literature describing this interface, a major part of methods applied seem to have been chosen in an unstructured, almost random way. This study investigates the literature in search of science fiction-related methods able to support the development of innovations. With around 60.000 publications considered based on a high-level search, a refined search combined with a manual search led to 17 science fiction-related methods to support the development of innovations. Using a six-phase generic innovation process, the methods identified were mapped into the process based on semantic similarities between the objectives of each method and the objectives of innovation process phases. This mapping is understood as an overview and conceptualization offering a baseline for future academic research and guidance for practitioners on choosing the most appropriate science fiction-related methods for developing innovations.}, language = {en} } @inbook{DadashiSchoenmannMartinietal.2024, author = {Dadashi, Alireza and Sch{\"o}nmann, Alexander and Martini, Melanie and John, Marcus}, title = {Technologie-Reifegradbewertung im Gesundheitswesen - Eine bibliometrische Analyse}, booktitle = {Technologien und Technologiemanagement im Gesundheitswesen: Potenziale nutzen, L{\"o}sungen entwickeln, Ziele erreichen}, editor = {Pfannstiel, Mario A.}, publisher = {Springer Gabler}, address = {Wiesbaden}, isbn = {978-3-658-43860-9}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-43860-9_12}, pages = {227 -- 250}, year = {2024}, language = {de} } @article{MartiniTietzeJohnetal.2024, author = {Martini, Melanie and Tietze, Frank and John, Marcus and Aristodemou, Leonidas and Sch{\"o}nmann, Alexander and Schimpf, Sven}, title = {Conceptualizing disruptive innovation paths, patent zero and patent-data based operationalization}, volume = {2024}, journal = {Centre for Technology Management working paper series}, number = {5}, publisher = {University of Cambridge}, address = {Cambridge}, issn = {2058-8887}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.111428}, year = {2024}, abstract = {Disruptive innovations, as opposed to sustaining innovations, bring change to customers, markets, industries. This change is often quite sudden and drastic. Thus, the early identification of disruptive technologies can be crucial for managers and policy makers alike. In this work we propose a method to support the early identification of disruptive innovations. To do so we conceptualize a 5-phase pathway framework for disruptive innovation, then propose how to operationalize its phases using patent data. We combined the underlying theory by Christensen with different patent indicators from literature to develop an early warning system for disruptive innovations based on the underlying disruptive technologies. Additionally, we introduce the concept of patent zero and provide a first analysis.}, language = {en} }