@article{RohrbeckSchwarz2013, author = {Rohrbeck, Ren{\´e} and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {The value contribution of strategic foresight}, volume = {80 (2013)}, journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change}, subtitle = {Insights from an empirical study of large European companies}, number = {8}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0040-1625}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.01.004}, pages = {1593 -- 1606}, year = {2013}, language = {en} } @article{Schwarz2014, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {The 'Narrative Turn' in developing foresight}, volume = {2015}, journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change}, subtitle = {Assessing how cultural products can assist organisations in detecting trends}, number = {90, Part B}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0040-1625}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.024}, pages = {510 -- 513}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @book{OriesekSchwarz2021, author = {Oriesek, Daniel F. and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Winning the Uncertainty Game}, subtitle = {Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming}, publisher = {Routledge}, address = {London ; New York}, isbn = {978-0-367-85359-4}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4324/9780367853594}, pages = {189}, year = {2021}, language = {en} } @article{Schwarz2020, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming from an Open Strategy Perspective}, volume = {12 (2020)}, journal = {World Futures Review}, number = {3}, publisher = {Sage Publishing}, address = {Thousand Oaks (CA)}, issn = {2169-2793}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182}, pages = {291 -- 303}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The key aim of Open Strategy is to open up the process of strategy development to larger groups within and even outside an organization. Furthermore, Open Strategy aims to include broad groups of stakeholders in the various steps of the strategy process. The question at hand is how can Open Strategy be achieved? What approaches can be used? Scenario planning and business wargaming are approaches perceived as relevant tools in the field of strategy and strategic foresight and in the context of Open Strategy because of their participative nature. The aim of this article is to assess to what degree scenario planning and business wargaming can be used in the context of Open Strategy. While these approaches are suitable, their current application limits the number of potential participants. Further research and experimentation in practice with larger groups and/or online approaches, or a combination of both, are needed to explore the potential of scenario planning and business wargaming as tools for Open Strategy.}, language = {en} } @article{EllerHofmannSchwarz2020, author = {Eller, Eric and Hofmann, Rupert and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {The Customer Foresight Territory}, volume = {2020}, journal = {Marketing Review St Gallen}, number = {3}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}t St. Gallen}, address = {St. Gallen}, url = {https://imc.unisg.ch/shop/marketing-review-st-gallen-3-2020-customer-foresight/}, pages = {888 -- 895}, year = {2020}, language = {en} } @article{SchroppSchwarzBuder2024, author = {Schropp, Theresa and Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Buder, Fabian}, title = {Corporate foresight in light of the COVID-19 pandemic—The crisis as a driver?}, volume = {6}, pages = {e178}, journal = {Futures \& Foresight Science}, number = {2}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2573-5152}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178}, year = {2024}, abstract = {AbstractOur study emphasizes the evolving nature and increasing relevance of corporate foresight (CF) in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. This research, therefore, contributes to the foresight literature, concerned with the antecedents and motivators of CF as it investigates how external events that are characterized by great uncertainty influence the CF practice of large companies. On the example of the COVID-19 pandemic and based on a study of 25 interviews, this empirical research reveals that such events provoke an intensified engagement with the future within companies as implied by a greater resource commitment and interest in foresight. Thereby, CF and especially the development of multiple future scenarios, are considered helpful in countering uncertainty and facilitating responsiveness.}, language = {en} } @article{SchwarzRamRohrbeck2019, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Ram, Camelia and Rohrbeck, Ren{\´e}}, title = {Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics}, volume = {105}, journal = {Futures}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1873-6378}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001}, pages = {133 -- 142}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The deliberate exploration of how the future competitive landscape may evolve is critical to uncovering threats and opportunities for firms that seek to improve their core businesses and advance to a superior position in the markets of the future. While techniques such as business wargaming can effectively support this process, such techniques can benefit from placing competitive considerations within a broader future landscape shaped by geopolitical, social, technological and economic forces. Scenario planning allows for the exploration of interactions across multiple external forces to create a rich set of narratives on how the future may unfold. This paper will discuss the potential of combining scenario planning and business wargaming to enable strategists to anticipate moves and countermoves and foresee their consequences. We use a real-life case study to illustrate how a scenario-planning exercise can guide the crucial stage of selecting relevant future competitors of a firm prior to engaging in a business-war-gaming exercise. We then introduce what we term the prospective competitive strategy process to guide the analysis of potential competitive dynamics, emphasizing the synergies between scenario planning and business wargaming.}, language = {en} } @article{SchwarzKroehlvonderGracht2013, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Kroehl, Rixa and von der Gracht, Heiko A.}, title = {Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference}, volume = {2014}, journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change}, number = {84}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1873-5509}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007}, pages = {66 -- 73}, year = {2013}, language = {en} } @book{OriesekSchwarz2009, author = {Oriesek, Daniel F. and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Business Wargaming}, subtitle = {Unternehmenswert schaffen und sch{\"u}tzen}, publisher = {Gabler}, address = {Wiesbaden}, isbn = {978-3-8349-1879-6}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-8288-9}, pages = {XVIII, 181}, year = {2009}, language = {de} } @article{SchwarzLiebl2013, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Liebl, Franz}, title = {Cultural products and their implications for business models: Why science fiction needs socio-cultural fiction}, volume = {2013}, journal = {Futures}, number = {50}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0016-3287}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.03.006}, pages = {66 -- 73}, year = {2013}, language = {en} }