@article{SchwarzWachRohrbeck2023, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Wach, Bernhard and Rohrbeck, Ren{\´e}}, title = {How to anchor design thinking in the future}, volume = {2023}, pages = {103137}, journal = {Futures}, subtitle = {Empirical evidence on the usage of strategic foresight in design thinking projects}, number = {149}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1873-6378}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103137}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Many organizations use design thinking (DT) to develop future products and services. DT is often used for its ability to serve as a common "language" and platform to enable market-facing departments and technology-oriented units to cocreate innovations. DT has been shown to be a powerful tool for helping to identify and connect the needs of average customers (personas) with technical solutions that form the basis for winning products. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which DT professionals already use strategic foresight (SF) methods that anticipate future customer needs and highlight emerging technologies to expand classical DT and anchor their projects in the future. Using survey data on 302 DT projects, we report on the extent to which SF methods are used in DT projects, the overriding types of SF methods in DT projects, and their impact on project success.}, language = {en} } @article{RohrbeckSchwarz2013, author = {Rohrbeck, Ren{\´e} and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {The value contribution of strategic foresight}, volume = {80 (2013)}, journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change}, subtitle = {Insights from an empirical study of large European companies}, number = {8}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0040-1625}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.01.004}, pages = {1593 -- 1606}, year = {2013}, language = {en} } @article{Schwarz2014, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {The 'Narrative Turn' in developing foresight}, volume = {2015}, journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change}, subtitle = {Assessing how cultural products can assist organisations in detecting trends}, number = {90, Part B}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0040-1625}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.024}, pages = {510 -- 513}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @book{OriesekSchwarz2021, author = {Oriesek, Daniel F. and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Winning the Uncertainty Game}, subtitle = {Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming}, publisher = {Routledge}, address = {London ; New York}, isbn = {978-0-367-85359-4}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4324/9780367853594}, pages = {189}, year = {2021}, language = {en} } @article{Schwarz2020, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Revisiting Scenario Planning and Business Wargaming from an Open Strategy Perspective}, volume = {12 (2020)}, journal = {World Futures Review}, number = {3}, publisher = {Sage Publishing}, address = {Thousand Oaks (CA)}, issn = {2169-2793}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756720953182}, pages = {291 -- 303}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The key aim of Open Strategy is to open up the process of strategy development to larger groups within and even outside an organization. Furthermore, Open Strategy aims to include broad groups of stakeholders in the various steps of the strategy process. The question at hand is how can Open Strategy be achieved? What approaches can be used? Scenario planning and business wargaming are approaches perceived as relevant tools in the field of strategy and strategic foresight and in the context of Open Strategy because of their participative nature. The aim of this article is to assess to what degree scenario planning and business wargaming can be used in the context of Open Strategy. While these approaches are suitable, their current application limits the number of potential participants. Further research and experimentation in practice with larger groups and/or online approaches, or a combination of both, are needed to explore the potential of scenario planning and business wargaming as tools for Open Strategy.}, language = {en} } @article{EllerHofmannSchwarz2020, author = {Eller, Eric and Hofmann, Rupert and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {The Customer Foresight Territory}, volume = {2020}, journal = {Marketing Review St Gallen}, number = {3}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}t St. Gallen}, address = {St. Gallen}, url = {https://imc.unisg.ch/shop/marketing-review-st-gallen-3-2020-customer-foresight/}, pages = {888 -- 895}, year = {2020}, language = {en} } @book{Schwarz2023, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Strategic Foresight}, subtitle = {An Introductory Guide to Practice}, publisher = {Routledge}, address = {London}, isbn = {9781003302735}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003302735}, pages = {ix, 170}, year = {2023}, language = {en} } @article{SchwarzRamRohrbeck2019, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Ram, Camelia and Rohrbeck, Ren{\´e}}, title = {Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics}, volume = {105}, journal = {Futures}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1873-6378}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001}, pages = {133 -- 142}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The deliberate exploration of how the future competitive landscape may evolve is critical to uncovering threats and opportunities for firms that seek to improve their core businesses and advance to a superior position in the markets of the future. While techniques such as business wargaming can effectively support this process, such techniques can benefit from placing competitive considerations within a broader future landscape shaped by geopolitical, social, technological and economic forces. Scenario planning allows for the exploration of interactions across multiple external forces to create a rich set of narratives on how the future may unfold. This paper will discuss the potential of combining scenario planning and business wargaming to enable strategists to anticipate moves and countermoves and foresee their consequences. We use a real-life case study to illustrate how a scenario-planning exercise can guide the crucial stage of selecting relevant future competitors of a firm prior to engaging in a business-war-gaming exercise. We then introduce what we term the prospective competitive strategy process to guide the analysis of potential competitive dynamics, emphasizing the synergies between scenario planning and business wargaming.}, language = {en} } @article{SchwarzKroehlvonderGracht2013, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Kroehl, Rixa and von der Gracht, Heiko A.}, title = {Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference}, volume = {2014}, journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change}, number = {84}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1873-5509}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007}, pages = {66 -- 73}, year = {2013}, language = {en} } @book{OriesekSchwarz2009, author = {Oriesek, Daniel F. and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Business Wargaming}, subtitle = {Unternehmenswert schaffen und sch{\"u}tzen}, publisher = {Gabler}, address = {Wiesbaden}, isbn = {978-3-8349-1879-6}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-8288-9}, pages = {XVIII, 181}, year = {2009}, language = {de} } @article{SchwarzLiebl2013, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Liebl, Franz}, title = {Cultural products and their implications for business models: Why science fiction needs socio-cultural fiction}, volume = {2013}, journal = {Futures}, number = {50}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0016-3287}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.03.006}, pages = {66 -- 73}, year = {2013}, language = {en} } @article{LieblSchwarz2009, author = {Liebl, Franz and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight}, volume = {42}, journal = {Futures}, number = {4}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0016-3287}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.017}, pages = {313 -- 327}, year = {2009}, language = {en} } @article{Schwarz2011, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Ex ante strategy evaluation: the case for business wargaming}, volume = {12}, journal = {Business Strategy Series}, number = {3}, publisher = {Emerald}, address = {Leeds}, issn = {1751-5637}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631111130095}, pages = {122 -- 135}, year = {2011}, language = {en} } @article{vonGroddeckSchwarz2013, author = {von Groddeck, Victoria and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Perceiving megatrends as empty signifiers: A discourse-theoretical interpretation of trend management}, volume = {2013}, journal = {Futures}, number = {47}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0016-3287}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.004}, pages = {28 -- 37}, year = {2013}, language = {en} } @article{MuellerSchwarz2016, author = {M{\"u}ller, Adrian W. and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Assessing the functions and dimensions of visualizations in foresight}, volume = {18}, journal = {Foresight}, number = {1}, publisher = {Emerald}, address = {Leeds}, issn = {1463-6689}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-04-2014-0027}, pages = {76 -- 90}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{Schwarz2007, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Assessing the future of futures studies in management}, volume = {40}, journal = {Futures}, number = {3}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0016-3287}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.018}, pages = {237 -- 246}, year = {2007}, language = {en} } @article{Schwarz2005, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Pitfalls in implementing a strategic early warning system}, volume = {7}, journal = {Foresight}, number = {4}, publisher = {Emerald}, address = {Leeds}, issn = {1463-6689}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680510611813}, pages = {22 -- 30}, year = {2005}, language = {en} } @article{GordonRohrbeckSchwarz2019, author = {Gordon, Adam and Rohrbeck, Ren{\´e} and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Escaping the 'Faster Horses' Trap: Bridging Strategic Foresight and Design-Based Innovation}, volume = {9}, journal = {Technology Innovation Management Review}, number = {8}, publisher = {Talent First Network}, address = {Ottawa}, issn = {1927-0321}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.22215/timreview/1259}, pages = {30 -- 42}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Design thinking is inherently and invariably oriented towards the future in that all design is for products, services or events that will exist in the future, and be used by people in the future. This creates an overlap between the domains of design thinking and strategic foresight. A small but significant literature has grown up in the strategic foresight field as to how design thinking may be used to improve its processes. This paper considers the other side of the relationship: how methods from the strategic foresight field may advance design thinking, improving insight into the needs and preferences of users of tomorrow, including how contextual change may suddenly and fundamentally reshape these. A side-by-side comparison of representative models from each field is presented, and it is shown how these may be assembled together to create a foresight-informed design thinking process.}, language = {en} } @article{SchroppSchwarzBuder2024, author = {Schropp, Theresa and Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Buder, Fabian}, title = {Corporate foresight in light of the COVID-19 pandemic—The crisis as a driver?}, pages = {e178}, journal = {Futures \& Foresight Science}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2573-5152}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.178}, year = {2024}, abstract = {AbstractOur study emphasizes the evolving nature and increasing relevance of corporate foresight (CF) in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. This research, therefore, contributes to the foresight literature, concerned with the antecedents and motivators of CF as it investigates how external events that are characterized by great uncertainty influence the CF practice of large companies. On the example of the COVID-19 pandemic and based on a study of 25 interviews, this empirical research reveals that such events provoke an intensified engagement with the future within companies as implied by a greater resource commitment and interest in foresight. Thereby, CF and especially the development of multiple future scenarios, are considered helpful in countering uncertainty and facilitating responsiveness.}, language = {en} } @article{SchwarzRohrbeckWach2020, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Rohrbeck, Ren{\´e} and Wach, Bernhard}, title = {Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities}, volume = {2}, journal = {Futures \& Foresight Science}, number = {2}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2573-5152}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.28}, year = {2020}, language = {en} } @article{SchwarzWach2022, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Wach, Bernhard}, title = {The usage of cultural products in design thinking: An assessment of an underestimated approach}, volume = {25}, journal = {The Design Journal}, number = {1}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis}, address = {London}, issn = {1460-6925}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/14606925.2021.2005879}, pages = {4 -- 24}, year = {2022}, language = {en} } @article{KoebeSchillingsSchwarz2023, author = {Koebe, Philipp and Schillings, Tobias and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {How Superintelligence Affects Human Health: A Scenario Analysis}, volume = {28}, journal = {Journal of Futures Studies}, number = {2}, publisher = {Tamkang University}, address = {Taipei}, issn = {1027-6084}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.202312_28(2).0005}, pages = {79 -- 99}, year = {2023}, language = {en} } @article{Schwarz2021, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {From alternative pictures of the future to an organizational intervention: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol}, volume = {4}, pages = {e105}, journal = {Futures \& Foresight Science}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2573-5152}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.105}, year = {2021}, language = {en} } @article{OriesekSchwarz2021, author = {Oriesek, Daniel F. and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Winning the Uncertainty Game: Turning Strategic Intent into Results with Wargaming}, volume = {X}, journal = {PM World Journal}, number = {VIII}, publisher = {PM World}, address = {Dallas}, issn = {2330-4480}, url = {https://pmworldlibrary.net/pmworld-journal-archives/}, year = {2021}, language = {en} }