@article{SchwarzWachRohrbeck2023, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Wach, Bernhard and Rohrbeck, Ren{\´e}}, title = {How to anchor design thinking in the future}, volume = {2023}, pages = {103137}, journal = {Futures}, subtitle = {Empirical evidence on the usage of strategic foresight in design thinking projects}, number = {149}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1873-6378}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2023.103137}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Many organizations use design thinking (DT) to develop future products and services. DT is often used for its ability to serve as a common "language" and platform to enable market-facing departments and technology-oriented units to cocreate innovations. DT has been shown to be a powerful tool for helping to identify and connect the needs of average customers (personas) with technical solutions that form the basis for winning products. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which DT professionals already use strategic foresight (SF) methods that anticipate future customer needs and highlight emerging technologies to expand classical DT and anchor their projects in the future. Using survey data on 302 DT projects, we report on the extent to which SF methods are used in DT projects, the overriding types of SF methods in DT projects, and their impact on project success.}, language = {en} } @article{RohrbeckSchwarz2013, author = {Rohrbeck, Ren{\´e} and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {The value contribution of strategic foresight}, volume = {80 (2013)}, journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change}, subtitle = {Insights from an empirical study of large European companies}, number = {8}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0040-1625}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.01.004}, pages = {1593 -- 1606}, year = {2013}, language = {en} } @article{SchwarzRamRohrbeck2019, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Ram, Camelia and Rohrbeck, Ren{\´e}}, title = {Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics}, volume = {105}, journal = {Futures}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1873-6378}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.001}, pages = {133 -- 142}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The deliberate exploration of how the future competitive landscape may evolve is critical to uncovering threats and opportunities for firms that seek to improve their core businesses and advance to a superior position in the markets of the future. While techniques such as business wargaming can effectively support this process, such techniques can benefit from placing competitive considerations within a broader future landscape shaped by geopolitical, social, technological and economic forces. Scenario planning allows for the exploration of interactions across multiple external forces to create a rich set of narratives on how the future may unfold. This paper will discuss the potential of combining scenario planning and business wargaming to enable strategists to anticipate moves and countermoves and foresee their consequences. We use a real-life case study to illustrate how a scenario-planning exercise can guide the crucial stage of selecting relevant future competitors of a firm prior to engaging in a business-war-gaming exercise. We then introduce what we term the prospective competitive strategy process to guide the analysis of potential competitive dynamics, emphasizing the synergies between scenario planning and business wargaming.}, language = {en} } @article{GordonRohrbeckSchwarz2019, author = {Gordon, Adam and Rohrbeck, Ren{\´e} and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Escaping the 'Faster Horses' Trap: Bridging Strategic Foresight and Design-Based Innovation}, volume = {9}, journal = {Technology Innovation Management Review}, number = {8}, publisher = {Talent First Network}, address = {Ottawa}, issn = {1927-0321}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.22215/timreview/1259}, pages = {30 -- 42}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Design thinking is inherently and invariably oriented towards the future in that all design is for products, services or events that will exist in the future, and be used by people in the future. This creates an overlap between the domains of design thinking and strategic foresight. A small but significant literature has grown up in the strategic foresight field as to how design thinking may be used to improve its processes. This paper considers the other side of the relationship: how methods from the strategic foresight field may advance design thinking, improving insight into the needs and preferences of users of tomorrow, including how contextual change may suddenly and fundamentally reshape these. A side-by-side comparison of representative models from each field is presented, and it is shown how these may be assembled together to create a foresight-informed design thinking process.}, language = {en} } @article{SchwarzRohrbeckWach2020, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Rohrbeck, Ren{\´e} and Wach, Bernhard}, title = {Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities}, volume = {2}, journal = {Futures \& Foresight Science}, number = {2}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2573-5152}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.28}, year = {2020}, language = {en} }