@article{MuellerSchwarz2016, author = {M{\"u}ller, Adrian W. and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Assessing the functions and dimensions of visualizations in foresight}, volume = {18}, journal = {Foresight}, number = {1}, publisher = {Emerald}, address = {Leeds}, issn = {1463-6689}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-04-2014-0027}, pages = {76 -- 90}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{SchwarzKroehlvonderGracht2013, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Kroehl, Rixa and von der Gracht, Heiko A.}, title = {Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference}, volume = {2014}, journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change}, number = {84}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1873-5509}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007}, pages = {66 -- 73}, year = {2013}, language = {en} } @article{SchwarzLiebl2013, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver and Liebl, Franz}, title = {Cultural products and their implications for business models: Why science fiction needs socio-cultural fiction}, volume = {2013}, journal = {Futures}, number = {50}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0016-3287}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.03.006}, pages = {66 -- 73}, year = {2013}, language = {en} } @article{vonGroddeckSchwarz2013, author = {von Groddeck, Victoria and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Perceiving megatrends as empty signifiers: A discourse-theoretical interpretation of trend management}, volume = {2013}, journal = {Futures}, number = {47}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0016-3287}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.004}, pages = {28 -- 37}, year = {2013}, language = {en} } @article{Schwarz2011, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Ex ante strategy evaluation: the case for business wargaming}, volume = {12}, journal = {Business Strategy Series}, number = {3}, publisher = {Emerald}, address = {Leeds}, issn = {1751-5637}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1108/17515631111130095}, pages = {122 -- 135}, year = {2011}, language = {en} } @article{LieblSchwarz2009, author = {Liebl, Franz and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight}, volume = {42}, journal = {Futures}, number = {4}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0016-3287}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.017}, pages = {313 -- 327}, year = {2009}, language = {en} } @article{Schwarz2007, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Assessing the future of futures studies in management}, volume = {40}, journal = {Futures}, number = {3}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0016-3287}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.018}, pages = {237 -- 246}, year = {2007}, language = {en} } @article{Schwarz2005, author = {Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Pitfalls in implementing a strategic early warning system}, volume = {7}, journal = {Foresight}, number = {4}, publisher = {Emerald}, address = {Leeds}, issn = {1463-6689}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680510611813}, pages = {22 -- 30}, year = {2005}, language = {en} } @book{OriesekSchwarz2009, author = {Oriesek, Daniel F. and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Business Wargaming}, subtitle = {Unternehmenswert schaffen und sch{\"u}tzen}, publisher = {Gabler}, address = {Wiesbaden}, isbn = {978-3-8349-1879-6}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-8288-9}, pages = {XVIII, 181}, year = {2009}, language = {de} } @article{PaceBrunoSchwarz2025, author = {Pace, Lisa A. and Bruno, Carmen and Schwarz, Jan Oliver}, title = {Personas in scenario building: Integrating human-centred design methods in foresight}, volume = {2025}, pages = {103539}, journal = {Futures}, number = {166}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {1873-6378}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103539}, year = {2025}, abstract = {This paper contributes to integrating human-centred design approaches in foresight. We emphasize design thinking as an approach that incorporates user-centred concepts and artefacts, enabling the creation and visualization of potential futures and mediating the exploration of new perspectives and areas of intervention for innovation. However, there is limited discussion in the foresight literature on the meaningful application of design approaches. We focus on the persona method and its roles and applications in scenario building. To be meaningful in scenario building, personas need to appropriately integrate users' future needs, expectations and behaviours that shape and in turn are shaped by contexts that are yet to be realised. Based on an analysis of published case studies, the paper underscores the role of personas in fostering creative imagination, enhancing scenario engagement, and prospective sensemaking beyond their application as a storytelling vehicle in scenarios. We link persona characteristics and design to their roles in scenario building, allowing design and foresight practitioners the flexibility to tailor the persona approach to different contexts and critically assess the underlying limitations. From this, we provide recommendations for incorporating personas in scenario building and conclude with suggestions for future research.}, language = {en} }