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We discuss a Root Cause Analysis (RCA) system implementing a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian inference for adaptive reasoning under uncertainties in industrial process operation. The proposed approach is model based and accumulates the process knowledge within the problem domain, which data is gathered and stored in XML-based information server. The Bayesian networks have been created automatically from the XML-structured data. The interconnection between XML-failure trees is handled as object oriented instances of Bayesian sub-networks within master-network covering the entire process and monitoring its overall condition, output quality and equipment effectiveness. We implement sequential on-line adaptivity of models' parameters to reflect changes in process operation. The system learning can be supervised by user feedback on the actual root cause. The general RCA methodology is applied to plate cutting in a hot rolling mill.
We propose a methodology for Root Cause Analysis (RCA), allowing fast and flexible decision support for operators, maintenance staff and process engineers in pulp and paper industry. RCA can identify non-obvious process problems and is therefore a powerful complement to normal automatic control. The general methodology is applied to a continuous digester.
Kurzfassung Diese Arbeit stellt ein robustes wissensbasiertes Verfahren zur Lückenbewertung für Spur-wechselmanöver vor. Zur Modellierung wurden dynamische Bayes-Netzwerke eingesetzt und mit Hilfe von Lernalgorithmen die Erkennungsleistung verbessert. Die Testergebnisse zeigen eine sehr hohe Trefferquote.
Learning Style Classification by Using Bayesian Networks Based on the Index of Learning Style
(2023)
Conditional automated driving (CAD) systems (SAE level 3) will soon be introduced to the public market. This automation level is designed to take care of all aspects of the dynamic driving task in specific application areas and does not require the driver to continuously monitor the system performance. However, in contrast to higher levels of automation the "fallback-ready" user always has to be able to regain control if requested by the system. As CAD allows the driver to engage in non-driving-related tasks (NDRTs) past human factors research has looked at their effects on takeover time and quality especially in short-term takeover situations. In order to understand how takeover performance is impacted by different NDRTs, this paper summarizes and compares available results according to the NDRT's impact on the sensoric, motoric and cognitive transition. In addition, aspects of arousal and motivation are considered. Due to the heterogeneity of the empirical work and the available data practically relevant effects can only be attested for NDRTs that cause severe discrepancies between the current driver state and the requirements of the takeover task, such as sensoric and motoric unavailability. The paper concludes by discussing methodological issues and recommending the development of standardized methods for the future.
This paper describes a novel approach to situation analysis at intersections using object-oriented Bayesian networks. The Bayesian network infers the collision probability for all vehicles approaching the intersection, while taking into account traffic rules, the digital street map, and the sensors' uncertainties. The environment perception is fused from communicated data, vehicles local perception and self-localization. Thus, a cooperatively validated set of data is obtained to characterize all objects involved in a situation (resolving occlusions). The system is tested with data, acquired by vehicles with heterogenic equipment (without/with perception). In a first step the probabilistic mapping of a vehicle onto a fixed set of traffic lanes and forward motion predictions is introduced. Second, criticality measures are evaluated for these motion predictions to infer the collision probability. In our test vehicle this probability is then used to warn the driver of a possible hazardous situation. It serves as a likelihood alarm parameter for deciding the intensity of HMI acoustic signals to direct the driver's attention. First results in various simulated and live real-time scenarios show, that a collision can be predicted up to two seconds before a possible impact by applying the developed Bayesian network. The extension of this network to further situation features is the content of ongoing research.
The new generation of autonomous vehicles (AVs) are being designed to act autonomously and collect travel data based on various smart devices and sensors. The goal is to enable AVs to operate under their own power. Naturalistic driving studies (NDSs) collect data continuously from real traffic activities, in order not to miss any safety-critical event. In NDSs of AVs, however, the data they collect is influenced by various sources that degrade their forecasting accuracy. A convolutional neural network (CNN) is proposed to process a large amount of traffic data in different formats. A CNN can detect anomalies in traffic data that negatively affect traffic efficiency and identify the source of data anomalies, which can help reduce traffic congestion and vehicular queuing.
In diesem Artikel wird ein Ansatz zur Erkennung von Spurwechselmanövern mit Hilfe von objekt-orientierten Bayes Netzen beschrieben. Dieser Ansatz ist eine Erweiterung von Grundlagenarbeiten zur Einscherererkennung. Zunächst werden die zur Erkennung von Spurwechselvorgängen erforderlichen Fahrsituationsmerkmale vorgestellt. Darauf aufbauend wird das entwickelte objekt-orientierte Bayes Netz zur Modellierung der Spurwechsel erläutert. Dabei wird ein Spurwechsel als eine Beziehung zwischen zwei Fahrzeugen betrachtet. Dabei kann ein Fahrzeug in der Spur bleiben, die Spur nach links oder nach rechts wechseln. Durch die Kombination der Möglichkeiten der beiden Fahrzeuge entstehen 9 Klassen. Aus den relativen Positionen der Fahrzeuge ergeben sich aus den 9 Situationsklassen 27 mögliche Spurwechselmanöver. Dabei ist das Einschervorgang ein Sonderfall der modellierten Fahrmanöver.
We present an application, where extensions of existing methods for decision-theoretic troubleshooting are used for industrial process operation and asset management. The extension includes expected average cost of asset management actions, prediction of signals' level-trend development, risk assessment for disturbance analysis and predictive maintenance on demand.