TY - JOUR A1 - Kondziella, Hendrik A1 - Specht, Karl A1 - Lerch, Philipp A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Bruckner, Thomas T1 - The techno-economic potential of large-scale hydrogen storage in Germany for a climate-neutral energy system JF - Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews N2 - The seasonal storage of natural gas is a recognized and reliable technology in the energy industry. Salt caverns are particularly suitable for storing alternative gaseous fuels such as hydrogen. Germany has a great technical potential for expanding its cavern storage capacity, which exceeds the expected demand for hydrogen many times. Regarding the projected long-term decline in natural gas use, the question arises as to whether existing caverns can meet future storage requirements. To this end, a techno-economic model is presented to meet electricity and hydrogen demand in a cost-optimal solution. This analysis focused on the utilization of hydrogen storage in terms of energy throughput and maximum storage capacity. To link the outcome of economic dispatch to the literature, the fundamental assumptions are based on comprehensive capacity expansion models. This study advances the state of the art by evaluating key input parameters of the future energy system. By conducting 192 model runs, the analysis revealed the range of uncertainty in terms of storage use. This indicates a strong dependence of the systemic and economic value of hydrogen storage on boundary conditions such as a consideration of dark doldrums, a flexible hydrogen demand profile, hydrogen import restrictions and a larger electrolyzer capacity. The uncertainty ranged from 0 to 67 TWhH2 for the storage capacity, with an average of 36.6 TWhH2 across all scenarios, and from 0 to 190 TWhH2 for the annual energy throughput. These results are significant for gas storage operators who derive transformation strategies and policymakers evaluating financial funding requirements. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113430 SN - 1364-0321 VL - 182 SP - 113430 EP - 113430 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Wald, Stefan A1 - Kondziella, Hendrik A1 - Gunkel, Philipp Andreas A1 - Bruckner, Thomas A1 - Keles, Dogan T1 - Future role and economic benefits of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers in Germany: a review of long-term energy scenarios JF - Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments N2 - Determining the development of Germany’s energy system is the subject of a series of studies. Since their results play a significant role in the political energy debate for understanding the role of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers, a better discussion is needed. This article provides an assessment of published transition pathways for Germany to assess the role and advantages of hydrogen-based carriers. Twelve energy studies including 37 scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050 were evaluated. Despite the variations, the carrier will play an important role. While their deployment is expected to have only started by 2030 with a mean demand of 91 TWh/a (4% of the final energy demand) in Germany, they will be an essential part by 2050 with a mean demand of 480 TWh/a (24%). The outcome of the scenarios depends on the chosen methods and assumptions. A moderately positive correlation (0.53) between the decarbonisation targets and the share of hydrogen-based carriers in final energy demand underlines the relevance for reaching the climate targets. Additionally, value creation effects of about 16 billion EUR/a in 2050 can be expected for hydrogen-based carriers. Hydrogen is expected to be produced domestically while synthetic fuels are projected to be mostly imported. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2023.103037 SN - 22131388 VL - 56 SP - 103037 EP - 103037 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Specht, Karl A1 - Kondziella, Hendrik A1 - Bruckner, Thomas A1 - Scheller, Fabian T1 - Scenarios for the decarbonization of district heating: the case of Leipzig T2 - 2023 19th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) N2 - This study derives the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) for exemplary post-fossil district heating (DH) scenarios. The DH system of Leipzig in 2040 under the assumption of a completely climate-neutral heat supply is considered. Accordingly, four generation scenarios (GS) are proposed based on different energy carriers that are characterized as follows: (1) natural gas with carbon capture and storage, (2) hydrogen, (3) diversified mix of biomass, waste heat and solar, and (4) electricity. In addition, the scenarios’ robustness toward commodity prices is investigated using a sensitivity analysis. A modeling environment was used to optimize the hourly economic dispatch. Based on this, levelized costs are determined. For the reference case, the LCOH of the GS 1 and 2 exceeds the LCOH of GS 3 and 4. Furthermore, the results indicate that relying on singular energy carriers as opposed to diversified generation portfolios leads to less robust LCOH regarding price sensitivities. Y1 - 2023 SN - 979-8-3503-1258-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/eem58374.2023.10161822 SP - 1 EP - 11 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hermann, Julian A1 - Kachirayil, Febin A1 - Lohrmann, Alena A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Roskosch, Dennis A1 - McKenna, Russell T1 - A critical reflection on modelling approaches for heat pumps and building envelope retrofits in local energy system optimisations JF - Applied Energy N2 - Integrating heat pumps and adopting building envelope retrofit (BER) measures is vital for decarbonising the built environment. This paper systematically reviews modelling approaches for these technologies within 84 local energy system optimisation studies. Our findings show that most studies simplify heat pump operation using a constant coefficient of performance (COP), perfect modulation, or a fixed heating capacity. While existing methods account for temperature-dependent COPs, only a few studies include more advanced approaches considering additional impacts. Two main approaches for modelling BER measures are identified: pre-defined retrofit sets with exogenous heat demand or an integrated retrofit selection with endogenous heat demand. While the pre-defined approach offers lower computational effort, it limits the BER solution space. The integrated approach achieves the opposite: a wider solution space but higher complexity. Moreover, only two studies consider the impact of BER measures on the heat supply temperature, an essential link between retrofit measures and heat pump efficiency. Based on our qualitative review, we derive recommendations for energy system modellers. For modelling heat pumps, we recommend using a temperature-dependent COP and heating capacity, as well as a lower modulation limit. Regarding BER measures, the integrated approach should be used for smaller scales (single buildings) while the pre-defined sets are suitable for larger scales. Finally, we propose a research agenda to address limitations and gaps in the current modelling approaches, such as addressing the performance gap between existing COP estimations and heat pump field performance and including a more detailed method for the heat supply temperature. Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126525 SN - 0306-2619 VL - 400 PB - Elsevier BV ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Siddique, Muhammad Bilal A1 - Keles, Dogan A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Nielsen, Per Sieverts T1 - Dispatch strategies for large-scale heat pump based district heating under high renewable share and risk-aversion: A multistage stochastic optimization approach JF - Energy Economics Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107764 VL - 136 SP - 107764 EP - 107764 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Breitschopf, Barbara A1 - Keil, Julia A1 - Burghard, Uta A1 - Scheller, Fabian T1 - Forms of financial participation and acceptance of the energy transition-are there any relations? JF - Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12398-024-1256-6 VL - 48 IS - 1 SP - 38 EP - 57 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Morrissey, Karyn A1 - Scheller, Fabian T1 - It takes a village: the role of community attributes in shaping solar photovoltaic adoption intention in Germany JF - Renewable Energy Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121542 SP - 121542 EP - 121542 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Scheller, Fabian T1 - The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany - Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments JF - Heliyon N2 - The Climate Change Act recently enacted in Germany highlights the urgency of understanding the future demand for renewable fuels. In this study, we combine technological progress and socio-economic pathways in an energy system analysis to assess future renewable fuel demands in Germany. We apply the whole-system optimisation model, TIMES, to investigate transition pathways with varying electrification levels and socio-economic developments. The results show that renewable fuels demand varies between 388 PJ and 1310 PJ depending on the electrification rates. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that considering socio-economicaspects and behavioural change, as represented by different Shared-Socio-economic Pathways, can significantly alter the demand for renewable fuels within a narrower yet still noteworthy range compared to the electrification scenarios. This provides country-level evidence highlighting the often-overlooked influence of social developments on demand projections. Consequently, it becomes crucial to prioritize the consideration of the climate mitigation potential arising fromsocioeconomic-induced changes in demand patterns within the broader framework of energyefficiency measures. Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:bvb:863-opus-53637 VL - 9 IS - 11 PB - Elsevier ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Lerch, Philipp A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Bruckner, Thomas T1 - Potential of demand response for chlor-alkali electrolysis processes T2 - 19th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) N2 - Chlor-alkali electrolysis indicates significant demand response potential, accounting for over 2% of Germany’s total electricity demand. To fully analyze this potential, digital models or digital twins are necessary. In this study, we use the IRPopt modeling framework to develop a digital model of an electrolysis process and examine the cost-optimal load shifting application in the day-ahead spot and balancing reserve market for various price scenarios (2019, 2030, 2040). We also investigate the associated CO 2 emissions. Combined optimization at both markets results in greater and more robust cost savings of 16.1% but cannibalizes the savings that are possible through optimization separately at each market. In future scenarios, the shares of savings from spot and reserve market could potentially reverse. CO 2 savings between 2.5% and 9.2% appear only through optimization at the spot market and could even turn negative if optimized solely at the reserve market. Y1 - 2023 SN - 979-8-3503-1258-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/eem58374.2023.10161892 SP - 1 EP - 7 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lerch, Philipp A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Reichelt, David G. A1 - Menzel, Katharina A1 - Bruckner, Thomas T1 - Electricity cost and CO2 savings potential for chlor-alkali electrolysis plants: Benefits of electricity price dependent demand response JF - Applied Energy N2 - Chlor-alkali electrolysis plays a significant role in Germany's electricity demand, with a share of >2%. It offers a promising avenue for leveraging demand response strategies. In times of escalating electricity prices, load shifting can help to maintain economic competitiveness of domestic industries. This study aims to assess the potential for electricity cost savings and related CO2 emission reductions through optimal load shifting practices for chlor-alkali electrolysis, considering both current and projected future electricity prices. The research employs the mixed-integer energy system modeling framework IRPopt to model and optimize a chlorine value chain under various scenarios. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the primary factors driving electricity cost savings. The findings reveal that, based on the 2019 electricity price distribution (before pandemic and energy crisis), load shifting can yield electricity cost savings of 5.8% and CO2 emission reductions of 2.7%. As the share of variable renewable energy sources increases along with other driving factors, the electricity price spread is projected to rise from 28% in 2019 to an average of 87% in 2040 scenarios. Consequently, electricity cost savings rise up to 22% and CO2 emission reductions up to 10%. The primary drivers behind electricity cost savings include electricity price spreads and the utilization and operating range of the electrolyzer. In addition to the business-level advantages, the resulting decrease in residual load and lower CO2 emissions contribute to the integration of variable renewable energy sources and the achievement of decarbonization targets at the economic level. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122263 SN - 0306-2619 VL - 355 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Morrissey, Karyn A1 - Neuhoff, Karsten A1 - Keles, Dogan T1 - Green or greedy: the relationship between perceived benefits and homeowners' intention to adopt residential low-carbon technologies JF - Energy Research & Social Science N2 - Transitioning to a net-zero economy requires a nuanced understanding of homeowners’ decision-making pathways when considering the adoption of Low Carbon Technologies (LCTs). These LCTs present both personal and collective benefits, with positive perceptions critically influencing attitudes and intentions. Our study analyses the relationship between two primary benefits: the household-level financial gain and the broader environmental advantage. Focusing on the German homeowners’ intention to adopt Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems, Energy Efficient Appliances, and Green Electricity Tariffs, we employ Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling to demonstrate that the adoption intention of the LCTs is underpinned by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. Our research also highlights the pivotal role of perceived benefits in shaping attitudes and intentions. Attitudes towards the LCTs are more strongly related to product-specific benefits than affective constructs. In terms of evaluative benefits, environmental benefits exhibit a higher positive association with attitude formation compared to financial benefits. However, this relationship switches as homeowners move through the decision process with the financial benefits of selected LCTs having a consistently higher association with adoption intention. At the same time, financial benefits also positively affect attitudes. Observing this trend across both low- and high-cost LCTs, we recommend that policymakers and businesses enhance homeowners’ awareness of the personal advantages and implement strategies to make these financial benefits more tangible and accessible. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2023.103388 SN - 2214-6296 VL - 108 ER -