TY - JOUR A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Doser, Isabel A1 - Schulte, Emily A1 - Johanning, Simon A1 - McKenna, Russell A1 - Bruckner, Thomas T1 - Stakeholder dynamics in residential solar energy adoption: findings from focus group discussions in Germany JF - Energy Research & Social Science N2 - Although there is a clear indication that stages of residential decision making are characterized by their own stakeholders, activities, and outcomes, many studies on residential low-carbon technology adoption only implicitly address stage-specific dynamics. This paper explores stakeholder influences on residential photovoltaic adoption from a procedural perspective, so-called stakeholder dynamics. The major objective is the understanding of underlying mechanisms to better exploit the potential for residential photovoltaic uptake. Four focus groups have been conducted in close collaboration with the independent institute for social science research SINUS Markt- und Sozialforschung in East Germany. By applying a qualitative content analysis, major influence dynamics within three decision stages are synthesized with the help of egocentric network maps from the perspective of residential decision-makers. Results indicate that actors closest in terms of emotional and spatial proximity such as members of the social network represent the major influence on residential PV decision-making throughout the stages. Furthermore, decision-makers with a higher level of knowledge are more likely to move on to the subsequent stage. A shift from passive exposure to proactive search takes place through the process, but this shift is less pronounced among risk-averse decision-makers who continuously request proactive influences. The discussions revealed largely unexploited potential regarding the stakeholders local utilities and local governments who are perceived as independent, trustworthy and credible stakeholders. Public stakeholders must fulfill their responsibility in achieving climate goals by advising, assisting, and financing services for low-carbon technology adoption at the local level. Supporting community initiatives through political frameworks appears to be another promising step. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102065 SN - 2214-6326 VL - 76 SP - 102065 EP - 102065 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Burgenmeister, Balthasar A1 - Kondziella, Hendrik A1 - Kühne, Stefan A1 - Reichelt, David G. A1 - Bruckner, Thomas T1 - Towards integrated multi-modal municipal energy systems: An actor-oriented optimization approach JF - Applied Energy N2 - Against the backdrop of a changing political, economic and ecological environment, energy utilities are facing several challenges in many countries. Due to an increasing decentralization of energy systems, the conventional business could be undermined. Yet the reliable integration of small-scale renewable technologies and associated system transformations could represent an opportunity as well. Municipal energy utilities might play a decisive role regarding successful transition. For better decision-making, they need to investigate under which conditions certain novel business cases can become a sustainable part of their future strategy. The development of the strategy is a challenging task which needs to consider different conditions as business portfolio, the customer base, the regulatory framework as well as the market environment. Integrated Multi-Modal Energy System (IMMES) models are able to capture necessary interactions. This research introduces a model-driven decision support system called Integrated Resource Planning and Optimization (IRPopt). Major aim is to provide managerial guidance by simulating the impact of business models considering various market actors. The mixed-integer linear programming approach exhibits a novel formal interface between supply and demand side which merges technical and commercial aspects. This is achieved by explicit modeling of municipal market actors on one layer and state-of-the-art technology components on another layer as well as resource flow relations and service agreements mechanism among and between the different layers. While this optimization framework provides a dynamic and flexible policy-oriented, technology-based and actor-related assessment of multi-sectoral business cases, the encapsulation in a generic software system supports the facilitation. Based on the actor-oriented dispatch strategy, flexibility potential of community energy storage systems is provided to demonstrate a real application. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.07.027 SN - 1872-9118 VL - 228 SP - 2009 EP - 2023 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Johanning, Simon A1 - Abitz, Daniel A1 - Schulte, Emily A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Bruckner, Thomas T1 - PVactVal: A Validation Approach for Agent-based Modeling of Residential Photovoltaic Adoption T2 - 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) N2 - Agent-based simulation models are an important tool to study the effectiveness of policy interventions on the uptake of residential photovoltaic systems by households, a cornerstone of sustainable energy system transition. In order for these models to be trustworthy, they require rigorous validation.However, the canonical approach of validating emulation models through calibration with parameters that minimize the difference of model results and reference data fails when the model is subject to many stochastic influences. The residential photovoltaic diffusion model PVact features numerous stochastic influences that prevent straightforward optimization-driven calibration.From the analysis of the results of a case-study on the cities Dresden and Leipzig (Germany) based on three error metrics (mean average error, root mean square error and cumulative average error), this research identifies a parameter range where stochastic fluctuations exceed differences between results of different parameterization and a minimization-based calibration approach fails.Based on this observation, an approach is developed that aggregates model behavior across multiple simulation runs and parameter combinations to compare results between scenarios representing different future developments or policy interventions of interest. Y1 - 2022 SN - 978-1-6654-0896-7 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/eem54602.2022.9921039 SP - 1 EP - 6 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Johanning, Simon A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Abitz, Daniel A1 - Wehner, Claudius A1 - Bruckner, Thomas T1 - A modular multi-agent framework for innovation diffusion in changing business environments: conceptualization, formalization and implementation JF - Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling N2 - Understanding how innovations are accepted in a dynamic and complex market environment is a crucial factor for competitive advantage. To understand the relevant factors for this diffusion and to predict success, empirically grounded agent-based models have become increasingly popular in recent years. Despite the popularity of these innovation diffusion models, no common framework that integrates their diversity exists. This article presents a flexible, modular and extensible common description and implementation framework that allows to depict the large variety of model components found in existing models. The framework aims to provide a theoretically grounded description and implementation framework for empirically grounded agent-based models of innovation diffusion. It identifies 30 component requirements to conceptualize an integrated formal framework description. Based on this formal description, a java-based implementation allowing for flexible configuration of existing and future models of innovation diffusion is developed. As a variable decision support tool in decision-making processes on the adoption of innovations the framework is valuable for the investigation of a range of research questions on innovation diffusion, business model evaluation and infrastructure transformation. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/s40294-020-00074-6 VL - 8 IS - 1 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Johanning, Simon A1 - Schulte, Emily A1 - Abitz, Daniel A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Bruckner, Thomas ED - Johanning, Simon ED - Scheller, Fabian ED - Kühne, Stefan ED - Bruckner, Thomas T1 - PVactVal: Ein Ansatz für die operationale Validierung von Aufdach-PV Diffusionsmodellen T2 - Agentenbasierte Modellierung urbaner Transformationsprozesse T3 - Studien zu Infrastruktur und Ressourcenmanagement - Band 12 Y1 - 2022 SN - 9783832554132 U6 - https://doi.org/10.30819/5413.11 SP - 139 EP - 152 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kondziella, Hendrik A1 - Specht, Karl A1 - Lerch, Philipp A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Bruckner, Thomas T1 - The techno-economic potential of large-scale hydrogen storage in Germany for a climate-neutral energy system JF - Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews N2 - The seasonal storage of natural gas is a recognized and reliable technology in the energy industry. Salt caverns are particularly suitable for storing alternative gaseous fuels such as hydrogen. Germany has a great technical potential for expanding its cavern storage capacity, which exceeds the expected demand for hydrogen many times. Regarding the projected long-term decline in natural gas use, the question arises as to whether existing caverns can meet future storage requirements. To this end, a techno-economic model is presented to meet electricity and hydrogen demand in a cost-optimal solution. This analysis focused on the utilization of hydrogen storage in terms of energy throughput and maximum storage capacity. To link the outcome of economic dispatch to the literature, the fundamental assumptions are based on comprehensive capacity expansion models. This study advances the state of the art by evaluating key input parameters of the future energy system. By conducting 192 model runs, the analysis revealed the range of uncertainty in terms of storage use. This indicates a strong dependence of the systemic and economic value of hydrogen storage on boundary conditions such as a consideration of dark doldrums, a flexible hydrogen demand profile, hydrogen import restrictions and a larger electrolyzer capacity. The uncertainty ranged from 0 to 67 TWhH2 for the storage capacity, with an average of 36.6 TWhH2 across all scenarios, and from 0 to 190 TWhH2 for the annual energy throughput. These results are significant for gas storage operators who derive transformation strategies and policymakers evaluating financial funding requirements. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113430 SN - 1364-0321 VL - 182 SP - 113430 EP - 113430 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Wald, Stefan A1 - Kondziella, Hendrik A1 - Gunkel, Philipp Andreas A1 - Bruckner, Thomas A1 - Keles, Dogan T1 - Future role and economic benefits of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers in Germany: a review of long-term energy scenarios JF - Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments N2 - Determining the development of Germany’s energy system is the subject of a series of studies. Since their results play a significant role in the political energy debate for understanding the role of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers, a better discussion is needed. This article provides an assessment of published transition pathways for Germany to assess the role and advantages of hydrogen-based carriers. Twelve energy studies including 37 scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050 were evaluated. Despite the variations, the carrier will play an important role. While their deployment is expected to have only started by 2030 with a mean demand of 91 TWh/a (4% of the final energy demand) in Germany, they will be an essential part by 2050 with a mean demand of 480 TWh/a (24%). The outcome of the scenarios depends on the chosen methods and assumptions. A moderately positive correlation (0.53) between the decarbonisation targets and the share of hydrogen-based carriers in final energy demand underlines the relevance for reaching the climate targets. Additionally, value creation effects of about 16 billion EUR/a in 2050 can be expected for hydrogen-based carriers. Hydrogen is expected to be produced domestically while synthetic fuels are projected to be mostly imported. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2023.103037 SN - 22131388 VL - 56 SP - 103037 EP - 103037 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Specht, Karl A1 - Kondziella, Hendrik A1 - Bruckner, Thomas A1 - Scheller, Fabian T1 - Scenarios for the decarbonization of district heating: the case of Leipzig T2 - 2023 19th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) N2 - This study derives the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) for exemplary post-fossil district heating (DH) scenarios. The DH system of Leipzig in 2040 under the assumption of a completely climate-neutral heat supply is considered. Accordingly, four generation scenarios (GS) are proposed based on different energy carriers that are characterized as follows: (1) natural gas with carbon capture and storage, (2) hydrogen, (3) diversified mix of biomass, waste heat and solar, and (4) electricity. In addition, the scenarios’ robustness toward commodity prices is investigated using a sensitivity analysis. A modeling environment was used to optimize the hourly economic dispatch. Based on this, levelized costs are determined. For the reference case, the LCOH of the GS 1 and 2 exceeds the LCOH of GS 3 and 4. Furthermore, the results indicate that relying on singular energy carriers as opposed to diversified generation portfolios leads to less robust LCOH regarding price sensitivities. Y1 - 2023 SN - 979-8-3503-1258-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/eem58374.2023.10161822 SP - 1 EP - 11 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Lerch, Philipp A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Bruckner, Thomas T1 - Potential of demand response for chlor-alkali electrolysis processes T2 - 19th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) N2 - Chlor-alkali electrolysis indicates significant demand response potential, accounting for over 2% of Germany’s total electricity demand. To fully analyze this potential, digital models or digital twins are necessary. In this study, we use the IRPopt modeling framework to develop a digital model of an electrolysis process and examine the cost-optimal load shifting application in the day-ahead spot and balancing reserve market for various price scenarios (2019, 2030, 2040). We also investigate the associated CO 2 emissions. Combined optimization at both markets results in greater and more robust cost savings of 16.1% but cannibalizes the savings that are possible through optimization separately at each market. In future scenarios, the shares of savings from spot and reserve market could potentially reverse. CO 2 savings between 2.5% and 9.2% appear only through optimization at the spot market and could even turn negative if optimized solely at the reserve market. Y1 - 2023 SN - 979-8-3503-1258-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/eem58374.2023.10161892 SP - 1 EP - 7 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lerch, Philipp A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Reichelt, David G. A1 - Menzel, Katharina A1 - Bruckner, Thomas T1 - Electricity cost and CO2 savings potential for chlor-alkali electrolysis plants: Benefits of electricity price dependent demand response JF - Applied Energy N2 - Chlor-alkali electrolysis plays a significant role in Germany's electricity demand, with a share of >2%. It offers a promising avenue for leveraging demand response strategies. In times of escalating electricity prices, load shifting can help to maintain economic competitiveness of domestic industries. This study aims to assess the potential for electricity cost savings and related CO2 emission reductions through optimal load shifting practices for chlor-alkali electrolysis, considering both current and projected future electricity prices. The research employs the mixed-integer energy system modeling framework IRPopt to model and optimize a chlorine value chain under various scenarios. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the primary factors driving electricity cost savings. The findings reveal that, based on the 2019 electricity price distribution (before pandemic and energy crisis), load shifting can yield electricity cost savings of 5.8% and CO2 emission reductions of 2.7%. As the share of variable renewable energy sources increases along with other driving factors, the electricity price spread is projected to rise from 28% in 2019 to an average of 87% in 2040 scenarios. Consequently, electricity cost savings rise up to 22% and CO2 emission reductions up to 10%. The primary drivers behind electricity cost savings include electricity price spreads and the utilization and operating range of the electrolyzer. In addition to the business-level advantages, the resulting decrease in residual load and lower CO2 emissions contribute to the integration of variable renewable energy sources and the achievement of decarbonization targets at the economic level. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122263 SN - 0306-2619 VL - 355 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Vibrans, Luise A1 - Schulte, Emily A1 - Morrissey, Karyn A1 - Bruckner, Thomas A1 - Scheller, Fabian T1 - Same same, but different: Explaining heterogeneity among potential photovoltaic adopters in Germany using milieu segmentation JF - Energy Research & Social Science N2 - Adoption of new technologies necessitates changes in behaviours, attitudes, and social norms that cannot be sufficiently explained by a single predictor or group of predictors, particularly in heterogeneous populations. Aiming to add a greater understanding of intention to adopt Rooftop Photovoltaic (PV), this paper utilised an established population segmentation tool, the Sinus-Milieus and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to account for population heterogeneity of the sample of German homeowners (n = 1800). By employing partial least squares structural equation modelling, we confirmed that attitudes, social norms, and financial evaluation significantly influence adoption intention at the population level. A multi-group analysis revealed noteworthy variations in the relative impact of attitudes and social norms on adoption intention across different milieugroups. Notably, even milieugroups sharing the same broad social status and/or values, as defined by the Sinus-Milieu tool, exhibited significant differences in the influence of attitudes and social norms on adoption intention. Moreover, a Kruskal–Wallis H-test indicated significant differences in the reported level of adoption intention among milieugroups, with the Leading milieus showing the highest intention and the Deprived the lowest. Differences were also observed for the determinants of social norms, attitudes, environmental concern, and novelty-seeking behaviour. Our findings confirm the relevance of considering potential adopters as a heterogeneous group in terms of overall lifestyle characteristics. Tailoring communication strategies to target the underlying motivations of specific milieus can lead to more effective interventions. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2023.103212 SN - 2214-6326 VL - 103 SP - 103212 EP - 103212 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Johanning, Simon A1 - Abitz, Daniel A1 - Scheller, Fabian A1 - Bruckner, Thomas T1 - The Influence of Financial Benefits and Peer Effects on the Adoption of Residential Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems T2 - 19th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) N2 - The uptake of residential photovoltaic systems is essential for energy system transformation towards carbon neutrality and decentralization. However, despite numerous campaigns to incentivize their uptake, adoption by residential homeowners is lacking behind. While countless drivers and barriers have been identified, the decision process is not fully understood. To address this gap, we developed an agent-based residential rooftop photovoltaic adoption model called PVact. Our model analyzes the interactions of potential household adopters based on their utility functions and social network, with a focus on the role of monetary evaluation and social pressure in adoption behavior. In this paper, we aim to assess the influence of monetary evaluation and social pressure in an abstract case study based on real-world data from the municipality of Leipzig, Germany. We consider stochastic dynamics through scenario analysis to investigate the influence of these factors on adoption behavior. Our results show that monetary evaluation and social pressure have a significant impact on adoption behavior. Specifically, we find shifting adoption patterns with an increased requirement for monetary returns and higher level of normative pressure required for households to act. Higher resistance against these pressure shows more stochastic variations, more pronounced tipping points and stronger run-away effects. Y1 - 2023 SN - 979-8-3503-1258-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/eem58374.2023.10161765 SP - 1 EP - 16 ER -