@inproceedings{JohanningAbitzSchulteetal., author = {Johanning, Simon and Abitz, Daniel and Schulte, Emily and Scheller, Fabian and Bruckner, Thomas}, title = {PVactVal: A Validation Approach for Agent-based Modeling of Residential Photovoltaic Adoption}, series = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)}, booktitle = {18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)}, isbn = {978-1-6654-0896-7}, doi = {10.1109/eem54602.2022.9921039}, pages = {1 -- 6}, abstract = {Agent-based simulation models are an important tool to study the effectiveness of policy interventions on the uptake of residential photovoltaic systems by households, a cornerstone of sustainable energy system transition. In order for these models to be trustworthy, they require rigorous validation.However, the canonical approach of validating emulation models through calibration with parameters that minimize the difference of model results and reference data fails when the model is subject to many stochastic influences. The residential photovoltaic diffusion model PVact features numerous stochastic influences that prevent straightforward optimization-driven calibration.From the analysis of the results of a case-study on the cities Dresden and Leipzig (Germany) based on three error metrics (mean average error, root mean square error and cumulative average error), this research identifies a parameter range where stochastic fluctuations exceed differences between results of different parameterization and a minimization-based calibration approach fails.Based on this observation, an approach is developed that aggregates model behavior across multiple simulation runs and parameter combinations to compare results between scenarios representing different future developments or policy interventions of interest.}, language = {en} } @article{JohanningSchellerAbitzetal., author = {Johanning, Simon and Scheller, Fabian and Abitz, Daniel and Wehner, Claudius and Bruckner, Thomas}, title = {A modular multi-agent framework for innovation diffusion in changing business environments: conceptualization, formalization and implementation}, series = {Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling}, volume = {8}, journal = {Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1186/s40294-020-00074-6}, abstract = {Understanding how innovations are accepted in a dynamic and complex market environment is a crucial factor for competitive advantage. To understand the relevant factors for this diffusion and to predict success, empirically grounded agent-based models have become increasingly popular in recent years. Despite the popularity of these innovation diffusion models, no common framework that integrates their diversity exists. This article presents a flexible, modular and extensible common description and implementation framework that allows to depict the large variety of model components found in existing models. The framework aims to provide a theoretically grounded description and implementation framework for empirically grounded agent-based models of innovation diffusion. It identifies 30 component requirements to conceptualize an integrated formal framework description. Based on this formal description, a java-based implementation allowing for flexible configuration of existing and future models of innovation diffusion is developed. As a variable decision support tool in decision-making processes on the adoption of innovations the framework is valuable for the investigation of a range of research questions on innovation diffusion, business model evaluation and infrastructure transformation.}, language = {en} } @incollection{JohanningSchulteAbitzetal., author = {Johanning, Simon and Schulte, Emily and Abitz, Daniel and Scheller, Fabian and Bruckner, Thomas}, title = {PVactVal: Ein Ansatz f{\"u}r die operationale Validierung von Aufdach-PV Diffusionsmodellen}, series = {Agentenbasierte Modellierung urbaner Transformationsprozesse}, booktitle = {Agentenbasierte Modellierung urbaner Transformationsprozesse}, editor = {Johanning, Simon and Scheller, Fabian and K{\"u}hne, Stefan and Bruckner, Thomas}, isbn = {9783832554132}, doi = {10.30819/5413.11}, pages = {139 -- 152}, language = {de} } @article{KachirayilWeinandSchelleretal., author = {Kachirayil, Febin and Weinand, Jann Michael and Scheller, Fabian and McKenna, Russell}, title = {Reviewing local and integrated energy system models: insights into flexibility and robustness challenges}, series = {Applied Energy}, volume = {324}, journal = {Applied Energy}, issn = {1872-9118}, doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119666}, pages = {119666 -- 119666}, abstract = {The electrification of heating, cooling, and transportation to reach decarbonization targets calls for a rapid expansion of renewable technologies. Due to their decentral and intermittent nature, these technologies require robust planning that considers non-technical constraints and flexibility options to be integrated effectively. Energy system models (ESMs) are frequently used to support decision-makers in this planning process. In this study, 116 case studies of local, integrated ESMs are systematically reviewed to identify best-practice approaches to model flexibility and address non-technical constraints. Within the sample, storage systems and sector coupling are the most common types of flexibility. Sector coupling with the transportation sector is rarely considered, specifically with electric vehicles even though they could be used for smart charging or vehicle-to-grid operation. Social aspects are generally either completely neglected or modeled exogenously. Lacking actor heterogeneity, which can lead to unstable results in optimization models, can be addressed through building-level information. A strong emphasis on cost is found and while emissions are also frequently reported, additional metrics such as imports or the share of renewable generation are nearly entirely absent. To guide future modeling, the paper concludes with a roadmap highlighting flexibility and robustness options that either represent low-hanging fruit or have a large impact on results.}, language = {en} } @article{LehnaSchellerHerwartz, author = {Lehna, Malte and Scheller, Fabian and Herwartz, Helmut}, title = {Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A comparison of time series and neural network models taking external regressors into account}, series = {Energy Economics}, volume = {106}, journal = {Energy Economics}, issn = {1873-6181}, doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105742}, pages = {105742 -- 105742}, abstract = {The amount of renewable energies in electricity production has increased significantly in the last decade, resulting in more variability of the day-ahead electricity spot price. The Electricity Price Forecast (EPF) has to adapt to the new situation by applying flexible models. However, the numerous available forecasting methods differ widely, with no distinct candidate offering the best solution. Against this background, we conduct a comparative study of four different approaches to forecasting the German day-ahead electricity spot price. In addition to the prominent Seasonal Integrated Auto-Regressive Moving Average model ((S)ARIMA(X)) and the Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network models, we employ a Convolutional Neural Network LSTM (CNN-LSTM) and an extended two-stage multivariate Vector Auto-Regressive model (VAR) approach as hybrid models. For better performance, we include common external influences such as the consumer load, fuel and emission prices, average solar radiation and wind speed in our analysis. We analyse hourly data for twelve samples from October 2017 to September 2018. Each model is implemented to deliver price forecasts at three horizons, i.e., one day, seven days and thirty days ahead. While the LSTM model achieves the best forecasting performance on average, the two-stage VAR follows closely behind and performs exceedingly well for shorter prediction horizons. Further, we provide evidence that a combination of both forecasting methods outperforms each of the single models. This indicates that combining advanced methods could lead to further improvements in electricity spot price forecasts.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{MaheriBagaliChilaketal., author = {Maheri, A. and Bagali, R. and Chilak, C. and Scheller, Fabian and Mustafa, A. I.}, title = {Deterministic versus nondeterministic design of hybrid renewable energy systems}, series = {2nd International Symposium On Environment Friendly Energies And Applications}, booktitle = {2nd International Symposium On Environment Friendly Energies And Applications}, isbn = {978-1-4673-2911-8}, doi = {10.1109/efea.2012.6294064}, pages = {212 -- 217}, abstract = {The performance of the deterministic design methods in design of reliable and cost effective standalone hybrid renewable energy systems is evaluated. Reliability in the power supply is the chief feature of a standalone hybrid renewable energy system. It is shown that the traditional methods of considering the effect of uncertainties in deterministic designs such as design for worst case scenarios and employing safety measures such as margin of safety have little impact on the actual reliability of the designed system.}, language = {en} } @article{GunkelBergaentzleGrastedJensenetal., author = {Gunkel, Philipp Andreas and Bergaentzl{\´e}, Claire and Gr{\ae}sted Jensen, Ida and Scheller, Fabian}, title = {From passive to active: Flexibility from electric vehicles in the context of transmission system development}, series = {Applied Energy}, volume = {277}, journal = {Applied Energy}, issn = {1872-9118}, doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115526}, pages = {115526 -- 115526}, abstract = {Electrification of transport in RES-based power system will support the decarbonisation of the transport sector. However, due to the increase in energy demand and the large peak effects of charging, the passive integration of electric cars is likely to undermine sustainability efforts. This study investigates three different charging strategies for electric vehicle in Europe offering various degrees of flexibility: passive charging, smart charging and vehicle-to-grid, and puts this flexibility in perspective with the flexibility offered by interconnections. We use the Balmorel optimization tool to represent the short-term dispatch and long-term investment in the energy system and we contribute to the state-of-the-art in developing new methodologies to represent home charging and battery degradation. Our results show how each step of increased charging flexibility reduces system costs, affects energy mix, impacts spot prices and reduces CO2 emissions until the horizon 2050. We quantify how flexible charging and variable generation mutually support each other (>100 TWh from wind and solar energy in 2050) and restrict the business case for stationary batteries, whereas passive charging results in a substitution of wind by solar energy. The comparison of each charging scheme with and without interconnection expansion highlights the interplay between European countries in terms of electricity prices and CO2 emissions in the context of electrified transport. Although the best outcome is reached under the most flexible scenario at the EU level, the situation of the countries with the cheapest and most decarbonised electricity mix is damaged, which calls for adapted coordination policy at the EU level.}, language = {en} } @article{WeinandSchellerMcKenna, author = {Weinand, Jann Michael and Scheller, Fabian and McKenna, Russell}, title = {Reviewing energy system modelling of decentralized energy autonomy}, series = {Energy}, volume = {203}, journal = {Energy}, issn = {1873-6785}, doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2020.117817}, pages = {117817 -- 117817}, abstract = {Research attention on decentralized autonomous energy systems has increased exponentially in the past three decades, as demonstrated by the absolute number of publications and the share of these studies in the corpus of energy system modelling literature. This paper shows the status quo and future modelling needs for research on local autonomous energy systems. A total of 359 studies are investigated, of which a subset of 123 in detail. The studies are assessed with respect to the characteristics of their methodology and applications, in order to derive common trends and insights. Most case studies apply to middle-income countries and only focus on the supply of electricity in the residential sector. Furthermore, many of the studies are comparable regarding objectives and applied methods. Local energy autonomy is associated with high costs, leading to levelized costs of electricity of 0.41 \$/kWh on average. By analysing the studies, many improvements for future studies could be identified: the studies lack an analysis of the impact of autonomous energy systems on surrounding energy systems. In addition, the robust design of autonomous energy systems requires higher time resolutions and extreme conditions. Future research should also develop methodologies to consider local stakeholders and their preferences for energy systems.}, language = {en} } @article{KondziellaSpechtLerchetal., author = {Kondziella, Hendrik and Specht, Karl and Lerch, Philipp and Scheller, Fabian and Bruckner, Thomas}, title = {The techno-economic potential of large-scale hydrogen storage in Germany for a climate-neutral energy system}, series = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews}, volume = {182}, journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews}, issn = {1364-0321}, doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2023.113430}, pages = {113430 -- 113430}, abstract = {The seasonal storage of natural gas is a recognized and reliable technology in the energy industry. Salt caverns are particularly suitable for storing alternative gaseous fuels such as hydrogen. Germany has a great technical potential for expanding its cavern storage capacity, which exceeds the expected demand for hydrogen many times. Regarding the projected long-term decline in natural gas use, the question arises as to whether existing caverns can meet future storage requirements. To this end, a techno-economic model is presented to meet electricity and hydrogen demand in a cost-optimal solution. This analysis focused on the utilization of hydrogen storage in terms of energy throughput and maximum storage capacity. To link the outcome of economic dispatch to the literature, the fundamental assumptions are based on comprehensive capacity expansion models. This study advances the state of the art by evaluating key input parameters of the future energy system. By conducting 192 model runs, the analysis revealed the range of uncertainty in terms of storage use. This indicates a strong dependence of the systemic and economic value of hydrogen storage on boundary conditions such as a consideration of dark doldrums, a flexible hydrogen demand profile, hydrogen import restrictions and a larger electrolyzer capacity. The uncertainty ranged from 0 to 67 TWhH2 for the storage capacity, with an average of 36.6 TWhH2 across all scenarios, and from 0 to 190 TWhH2 for the annual energy throughput. These results are significant for gas storage operators who derive transformation strategies and policymakers evaluating financial funding requirements.}, language = {en} } @article{SchellerWaldKondziellaetal., author = {Scheller, Fabian and Wald, Stefan and Kondziella, Hendrik and Gunkel, Philipp Andreas and Bruckner, Thomas and Keles, Dogan}, title = {Future role and economic benefits of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers in Germany: a review of long-term energy scenarios}, series = {Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments}, volume = {56}, journal = {Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments}, issn = {22131388}, doi = {10.1016/j.seta.2023.103037}, pages = {103037 -- 103037}, abstract = {Determining the development of Germany's energy system is the subject of a series of studies. Since their results play a significant role in the political energy debate for understanding the role of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers, a better discussion is needed. This article provides an assessment of published transition pathways for Germany to assess the role and advantages of hydrogen-based carriers. Twelve energy studies including 37 scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050 were evaluated. Despite the variations, the carrier will play an important role. While their deployment is expected to have only started by 2030 with a mean demand of 91 TWh/a (4\% of the final energy demand) in Germany, they will be an essential part by 2050 with a mean demand of 480 TWh/a (24\%). The outcome of the scenarios depends on the chosen methods and assumptions. A moderately positive correlation (0.53) between the decarbonisation targets and the share of hydrogen-based carriers in final energy demand underlines the relevance for reaching the climate targets. Additionally, value creation effects of about 16 billion EUR/a in 2050 can be expected for hydrogen-based carriers. Hydrogen is expected to be produced domestically while synthetic fuels are projected to be mostly imported.}, language = {en} }