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Denotative and connotative management of uncertainty

  • The interplay between intuitive and deliberative processing is known to be important for human decision making. As independent modes, intuitive processes can take on many forms from associative to constructive, while deliberative processes often rely on some notion of decision theoretic rationality or pattern matching. Dual process models attempt to unify these two modes based on parallel constraint networks or on socially or emotionally oriented adjustments to utility functions. This paper presents a new kind of dual process model that unifies decision theoretic deliberative reasoning with intuitive reasoning based on shared cultural affective meanings in a single Bayesian sequential model. Agents constructed according to this unified model are motivated by a combination of affective alignment (intuitive) and decision theoretic reasoning (deliberative), trading the two off as a function of the uncertainty or unpredictability of the situation. The model also provides a theoretical bridge between decision-making research andThe interplay between intuitive and deliberative processing is known to be important for human decision making. As independent modes, intuitive processes can take on many forms from associative to constructive, while deliberative processes often rely on some notion of decision theoretic rationality or pattern matching. Dual process models attempt to unify these two modes based on parallel constraint networks or on socially or emotionally oriented adjustments to utility functions. This paper presents a new kind of dual process model that unifies decision theoretic deliberative reasoning with intuitive reasoning based on shared cultural affective meanings in a single Bayesian sequential model. Agents constructed according to this unified model are motivated by a combination of affective alignment (intuitive) and decision theoretic reasoning (deliberative), trading the two off as a function of the uncertainty or unpredictability of the situation. The model also provides a theoretical bridge between decision-making research and sociological symbolic interactionism. Starting with a high-level view of existing models, we advance Bayesian Affect Control Theory (BayesACT) as a promising new type of dual process model that explicitly and optimally (in the Bayesian sense) trades off motivation, action, beliefs and utility. We demonstrate a key component of the model as being sufficient to account for some aspects of classic cognitive biases about fairness and dissonance, and outline how this new theory relates to parallel constraint satisfaction models.zeige mehrzeige weniger

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Metadaten
Verfasserangaben:Jesse HoeyORCiD, Neil J. MacKinnonORCiD, Tobias SchröderORCiDGND
URL:http://journal.sjdm.org/20/200104/jdm200104.pdf
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1017/S1930297500008652
ISSN:1930-2975
Titel des übergeordneten Werkes (Englisch):Judgment and Decision Making
Untertitel (Englisch):A computational dual-process model
Verlag:Society for Judgment and Decision Making
Dokumentart:Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
Sprache:Englisch
Datum der Veröffentlichung (online):08.03.2022
Jahr der Erstveröffentlichung:2021
Veröffentlichende Institution:Fachhochschule Potsdam
Datum der Freischaltung:08.04.2022
GND-Schlagwort:Zwei-Prozess-Modell; Gefühl; Affekt; Kognitive Dissonanz
Jahrgang:16
Ausgabe / Heft:2
Erste Seite:505
Letzte Seite:550
Fachbereiche und Zentrale Einrichtungen:FB1 Sozial- und Bildungswissenschaften
DDC-Klassifikation:100 Philosophie und Psychologie / 150 Psychologie
Lizenz (Deutsch):License LogoCreative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
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