TY - JOUR A1 - Hoey, Jesse A1 - Schröder, Tobias T1 - Disruption of Social Orders in Societal Transitions as Affective Control of Uncertainty T2 - American behavioral scientist N2 - Bayesian affect control theory is a model of affect-driven social interaction underconditions of uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate how the operationalization of uncertainty in the model can be related to the disruption of social orders—societal pressures to adapt to ongoing environmental and technological change. First, we study the theoretical tradeoffs between three kinds of uncertainty as groups navigate external problems: validity (the predictability of the environment, including of other agents), coherence (the predictability of interpersonal affective dynamics), and dependence (the predictability of affective meanings). Second, we discuss how these uncertainty tradeoffs are related to contemporary political conflict and polarization in the context of societal transitions. To illustrate the potential of our model to analyze the socio-emotional consequences of uncertainty, we present a simulation of diverging individual affective meanings of occupational identities under uncertainty in a climate change mitigation scenario based on events in Germany. Finally, we sketch a possible research agenda to substantiate the novel, but yet mostly conjectural, ideas put forward in this paper. Y1 - 2022 UR - https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-fhpotsdam/frontdoor/index/index/docId/2913 SN - 1552-3381 VL - 67 IS - 2 SP - 311 EP - 331 PB - Sage Publ. CY - Thousand Oaks ER -