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In this dissertation, I present three research articles on the economics of wind energy in Germany. The first two chapters primarily assess onshore wind energy’s empirical value in the wholesale market. The third chapter discusses the efficiency of the German wind support scheme. In the first chapter, a database on German onshore wind turbines installed was created by using a general method to fill incomplete stock data. By using the database and highly granular wind speed data, hourly infeed and annual market values of around 25,700 wind turbines in Germany from 2005 to 2015 were calculated, and its drivers – infeed-price-correlation and standard deviation of infeed – analysed. Further, the spread in market values on turbine level was shown, regional differences quantified and the effect of turbine age on market values discussed. Turbines in central Germany had, on average, lower market values than turbines in the north, south or west of Germany. Modern turbines reached higher market values than older turbines. The second chapter on wind turbines’ market values covers the period until 2019. This analysis confirmed that market values were highly diverse on turbine level. Further, it explained why the market value of a single turbine matters in the market premium model. In this context, the magnitude of the outperformance of technologically advanced turbines was assessed. Last, the effect of inter-annual weather variability on wholesale electricity prices and market values was quantified, using 19 different years of winds speeds and infeed data. In the third chapter, it was analysed whether the German wind support scheme incentivised a cost-minimal capacity build-up. Two cost-minimal benchmark scenarios were developed and compared to the historical capacity build-up between 1995 and 2015. The costs of the benchmark scenarios were significantly lower than those of the historical build-up. The benchmark cost reduction largely stemmed from greater efficiency in terms of using better wind sites. It was further shown that a spatially concentrated capacity-build up, as induced in the benchmarks, is beneficial from a consumer’s point of view.
This dissertation is a compilation of four self-contained research articles that focus on selected subjects in the field of energy economics.
The first article focuses on the competitiveness of offshore wind in mature markets. In this work, we harmonise auction results based on the auction design features. We show that offshore wind power generation can be considered commercially competitive in mature markets without subsidy. Furthermore, once auction results are harmonised, we observe similar expected revenue streams of wind farms across countries. This finding means that different auction designs can fairly reflect the actual costs of developing wind farms and thus translate cost reductions into lower bids.
The second article explores the impacts of uncertainty in integrated electricity and gas system optimization models. We address the trade-off that the energy research community faces on a daily basis, i.e., whether to neglect uncertainty when constructing an energy system model and accept a suboptimal solution or to incorporate uncertainty and increase model complexity. Our research aims to bring a systematic understanding of which parametric uncertainties most substantially affect long-term planning decisions in energy system models.
In the third article, we focus on seasonal flexibility in the European natural gas market. We develop a market optimization model to simulate the operation of the gas market over a long period. This allows us to explore structural trends in market development, which are driven by changing supply and demand fundamentals. Our work contributes to the methodological question of how to measure the contributions of different flexibility options.
Finally, the fourth article investigates the value of Projects of Common Interest—gas infrastructure projects supported by EU public funds—in maintaining gas system resilience amid cold-winter demand spikes and supply shortages. For this purpose, we develop the first application of adaptive robust optimization to gas infrastructure expansion planning. The model endogenously identifies the unfortunate realizations of unknown parameters and suggests the optimal investments strategies to address them. We find that (i) robust solutions point to consistent preferences for specific infrastructure projects, (ii) the real-world construction efforts have been focused on the most promising projects, and (iii) most projects are unlikely to be realized without financial support.
In this dissertation, I present five articles regarding two relevant discussions within the field of energy economics: First, three papers discuss the German energy transition and in particular the increasing shares of renewable energies, its cost, benefits and respective challenges to its realization. Second, two papers discuss potential asymmetric pricing in the retail fuel sector in Germany, realizing an analysis with significantly improved data sets compared to earlier studies to answer more specific research questions.
The first three articles focus on the reconstruction of the German energy market into a low-carbon emission setting, especially by utilizing renewable energies. First, the analysis concentrates on the developing energy policy-related goals and the energy economic status-quo, such as the functioning of the system of feed-in tariffs within the market for renewable energies and its general effects on costs. Second, the study deals more deeply and with a quantitative emphasis on the roll-out of renewable energies in Germany and especially its economic effects, such as costs and benefits for energy consumers. Results showed that until 2030, German electricity consumers will pay around €2011 200 billion for RES installations built before the end of 2011. Third, related to the public opinion on the energy transition process, the dissertation unfolded challenges and misconceptions and offers implications for an improved communication approach. The analysis showed by the use of qualitative, semi-structured, in-depth expert interviews that despite the alleged clarity of goals, about two dozen questioned German energy stakeholders have very diverse reasons for the energy transition. The results indicated that one crucial reason is climate protection while a second one is energy autarchy. However, the heterogeneity of goals and conflicting objectives can lead to social tensions and mistrust, which can be appropriately addressed with specific communication methods (e.g. infographics).
The last two articles focus on econometric analyses regarding potential asymmetric pricing within the German retail fuel sector. In particular, the two papers examine the potential existence of Rockets and Feathers, i.e. higher adjustment speeds of retail fuel prices after oil price increases compared to oil price decreases. The dissertation analyzed a tremendous amount of data regarding retail diesel prices from two databases, compiled and processed by the author. The analysis proved with the help of Error Correction Models (following Engle/Granger) that e.g. specific major brands of retail fuel station as well as the local competitive environment influence the probability of Rockets and Feathers. Additionally, the analysis revealed that the nature of Rockets and Feathers is not static over time, i.e. the magnitude of the effect has dynamics across different time periods and consumer behavior can be seen as one reason for the phenomenon of asymmetric pricing.
Deutschland hat sich in den letzten Jahren beim Klimaschutz zu einer internationalen Führungsrolle bekannt und verfolgt zur Erreichung der eigenen Emissionsminderungsziele verschiedene Strategien im stationären Energiewandlungsbereich. Hierzu gehören - neben anderen Technologieoptionen - auch die verstärkte Nutzung regenerativer Energiequellen und wandlungseffizienter Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungstechnologien. Während legislative Fördermaßnahmen im erneuerbaren Energienbereich in Deutschland zu einem sehr starken Zubau von Energieanlagen führten, bleibt die Nutzung von dezentralen Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsanlagen (KWK-Anlagen) hinter den Erwartungen zurück. Die Gründe hierfür sind sehr vielschichtig, können aber zum Großteil auf fehlende ökonomische Anreize zurückgeführt werden. Die Zielsetzung der Arbeit besteht in der Entwicklung eines methodischen Ansatzes, um Lösungsmöglichkeiten für eine technische, wirtschaftliche und anreizorientierte Integration kleiner dezentraler KWK-Anlagen im kommunalen Versorgungsbereich anzubieten. Als ein wissenschaftlicher Beitrag zur Energieforschung im dezentralen Energieversorgungsbereich, besteht ein Hauptanliegen in der Ableitung von Betriebsführungsmethodiken für kleine KWK-Anlagen, die sowohl den lokalen Versorgungszielen des jeweiligen Anlagenbetreibers gerecht werden, als auch bestehende Energieeffizienzpotenziale im kommunalen Versorgungsbereich erschließen können. Hierfür werden zunächst - abgeleitet aus den kommunalen Energieversorgungsaufgaben - die Zielstellungen eines ganzheitlichen Energieversorgungsansatzes mit hohem Anteil dezentraler KWK-Anlagen in ein übergeordnetes Betriebsführungskonzept überführt und die technischen und ökonomischen Notwendigkeiten zur praktischen Realisierung erörtert. Aufbauend auf den Ausführungen zum ganzheitlichen Integrationsansatz bilden die Beschreibung eines entwickelten Optimiermodellansatzes und dessen Anwendung im Rahmen von Szenariobetrachtungen den Kern der Arbeit. Mit verschiedenen Szenarien für ein kleines kommunales Versorgungsgebiet werden die ökonomischen Effekte kostenoptimierter Betriebsführungsvarianten vergleichend gegenübergestellt und der Beitrag zur Steigerung eines wirtschaftlichen Anlagenbetriebes eruiert.
Fortschrittliche Braunkohlenverbrennungstechniken für die dezentrale Energieversorgung gehören zu den Forschungszielen an der BTU Cottbus (Brandenburgischen Technischen Universität Cottbus) und am ERI (Energieressourcen-Institut). Ein Schwerpunkt dabei ist die Entwicklung eines neuen Verbrennungssystems – der Zykloidfeuerung. Begleitend hierzu wurden mit der vorliegenden Arbeit erstmals grundlegende Untersuchungen zur Strömungsdynamik in der Brennkammer durchgeführt und ein numerisches Modell der isothermen Brennkammerströmung aufgestellt. Da eine messtechnische Erfassung des heißen, partikelbeladenen Strömungsfeldes in der Zykloidfeuerung nicht möglich war, wurde dieses modelliert und ein isothermes Brennkammermodell errichtet. Für die Strömungsmessungen wurde ein Heißfilmanemometer eingesetzt und zur numerischen Simulation kam das kommerzielle Programm FLUENT zur Anwendung. Im Brennkammermodell wurde ein dreidimensionales, stark verdralltes Strömungsfeld durch die Messungen ermittelt, welches die Simulationsergebnisse gut wiederspiegeln. Durch die Verbindung messtechnischer Untersuchungen und numerischer Simulationen konnte das isotherme Strömungsfeld vollständig dargestellt und Abhängigkeiten herausgearbeitet werden. Es liegen damit umfangreiche, grundlegende Erkenntnisse zum Strömungsverhalten im Brennkammermodell und dessen Abhängigkeiten vor. Diese sind grundsätzlich auf isotherme Strömungsverhältnisse in der realen Zykloidbrennkammer anwendbar.