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Yemen is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. The water deficit has been aggravated by the rapidly increasing demands for both surface and groundwater resources that are being unsustainably exploited. To address the country’s severe water scarcity, the government has adopted long-term intervention policies as stated in ‘Yemen's Strategic Vision 2025’. These policies are aimed at restoring the balance between water demand and availability, and at reducing the existing water deficit. Although 11 years have passed since this vision was adopted, the water deficit is still on the rise. The present situation raises questions about the efficiency of the intervention policies adopted by ‘Yemen's Strategic Vision 2025’ and about the effectiveness of implementing these policies. Another fundamental question pertains to the availability of a strategic assessment tool in the water resources sector that can be used to assess strategically future and current policies, strategies and plans, in order to ensure their efficiency in supporting water resources and in producing the positive impacts for which these strategic initiatives were developed in the first place. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is an assessment tool designed to function at a strategic level and help to bring aspects of environmental sustainability into the decisionmaking process. This research aims to demonstrate the potential of SEA in enhancing environmental sustainability in water policies for achieving sustainability of water resources in Yemen. In order to show the potential of SEA in the Yemeni water resources sector, this research has applied SEA methodologies and adopted a scenario-building approach for assessing the intervention policies adopted by ‘Yemen's Strategic Vision 2025’ to support augmentation of water resources. Qualitative and quantitative approaches have been used in this research. Quantitative historical data on water availability, water demand and water savings by interventions have been collected from the databases of national institutions and international organizations concerned. Statistical analyses have been used to project future trends until 2025. Qualitative analyses of relevant studies and reports covering the environmental, administrative, sociocultural and political-economic aspects of water resources management in Yemen have been implemented as well. In addition, 13 semi-structured key informant interviews have been conducted with decision-makers, managers and leading experts in the water and irrigation sectors. The research produced three future scenarios for the total water balance that may play out until 2025 in Yemen. These scenarios provide impact assessment and alternatives’ comparison of the existing intervention policies. The resulting scenarios are as follows: the ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which forms an assessment of currently applied interventions and provides an image for the future, if current interventions are maintained at the same pace; the ‘Do-nothing’ scenario representing the situation if no interventions are implemented; and the ‘Sustainability’ scenario, which represents the potential future of the total water balance if existing interventions are to be scaled up and out. The findings confirm the significant potential of currently adopted intervention policies to support water resources. They also reveal that the current level of implementing the intervention policies has hindered the potential of these intervention policies in achieving the expected positive impact on the water balance by 2025. In order to achieve a significant decrease in the water deficit, the strategic quantitative targets that need to be implemented were identified. The methodology followed in implementing the research and achieving the findings demonstrates the potential of SEA in enhancing environmental sustainability in water policies for achieving integrated and sustainable water resources management in Yemen. The recommendations of the research covered improving the existing water balance as well as improving the assessment and planning context in the water resources sector. In order to improve the water balance situation, the research recommends implementing quantitative targets for water savings and augmentations, such as those developed by this research. These targets have been identified based on the capacities of sectors implementing these interventions. The research also recommends further decentralization of planning and management of water resources and the establishment of Water User Associations (WUAs) as the main vehicles for ensuring sustainable planning and management of water resources, including the scale out of interventions, subject to assessment in this research. In order to improve assessment and planning of water resources, the research recommends the adoption of SEA, the updating of water resources data and conducting regular assessments of policies, plans and programmes as part of monitoring their impact and providing a chance for amending these policies and strategies, if required, to achieve sustainability of water resources.
Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is a concept and a decision-making support tool. Based on its definitions, it is claimed that SEA can 1) contribute to the integration of environmental concerns into strategic decisions: policies, plans and programmes (PPPs); and that SEA 2) is a systematic process. Although these claims are widely acknowledged in SEA research and practice, they remain largely unsubstantiated empirically. To date, SEA research is dominated by qualitative-type approaches, investigating aspects of effectiveness, of context and of elements of good practice. Quantitative-type research has been rare, and often criticised on the basis that it is unable to capture and address the dynamic nature of PPP-making processes, i.e. the involvement of a wide range of actors, the input of new information and the existence of different views and interests, which give rise to uncertainty and unpredictability. Nevertheless, the potential of quantitative research in SEA has yet to be fully explored, and the extent to which SEA is meeting the two definitional claims mentioned above remains untested and undetermined. Within this context, this study aims to apply a quantitative research approach to SEA and verify the extent to which SEA contributes to environmental integration (EI) and the extent to which SEA behaves systematically. It achieves this by looking at UK practice as a case study. It applies questionnaire survey, correlation analysis and sensitivity analysis as methods of quantitative research approach. The findings of this research confirmed that quantitative methodologies can be successfully applied to evaluate the presence and quality of SEA procedures and their outputs. Furthermore, the degree of EI reflected in plans and programmes (PPs) because of the SEA, as reflected in the PP’s environmental objectives and indicators, can be quantitatively evaluated. However, to enhance this quantitative evaluation process, clearer and more precise environmental objectives are needed. Of the two definitional SEA claims evaluated, that (1) SEA contributes to EI in PPPs and that (2) SEA is a systematic process), there was weak evidence to support the claim that SEA significantly achieved EI within UK SEA practice. Of the second claim, it was concluded that the UK SEA process behaves as a systematic process composed of negative and positive feedbacks. Moreover, the UK SEA process is a stable system prone to over-development and with inadequate negative feedbacks to facilitate self-regulation of the SEA process towards a certain range of EI. Based on the findings, it is recommended that if SEA effectiveness and theory-building are to be enhanced, application of more quantitative methods and hypothetico-deductive paradigms of scientific enquiry should be applied in order to test and verify stated hypotheses. Application of other quantitative methods such as Factor Analysis and/or Principal Component Analysis should be considered in order to further establish the explanatory elements for EI achievement, and contributory roles of various SEA elements in achieving EI. Furthermore, quantitative approaches can facilitate calibrating of SEA reports and EI achieved, and enhance standardisation and quality control. It is further recommended that if SEA is to be understood as a systematic process with dynamic interactions amongst its elements, then further research needs to be conducted to improve follow-up mechanisms and establish quality hold points in order to enhance quality assurance. Specifically, more negative feedback loops or best practice standards and quality control hold points should be integrated into the SEA system in order for it to better self-regulate towards achieving a defined range of EI.