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This dissertation is a compilation of four self-contained research articles that focus on selected subjects in the field of energy economics.
The first article focuses on the competitiveness of offshore wind in mature markets. In this work, we harmonise auction results based on the auction design features. We show that offshore wind power generation can be considered commercially competitive in mature markets without subsidy. Furthermore, once auction results are harmonised, we observe similar expected revenue streams of wind farms across countries. This finding means that different auction designs can fairly reflect the actual costs of developing wind farms and thus translate cost reductions into lower bids.
The second article explores the impacts of uncertainty in integrated electricity and gas system optimization models. We address the trade-off that the energy research community faces on a daily basis, i.e., whether to neglect uncertainty when constructing an energy system model and accept a suboptimal solution or to incorporate uncertainty and increase model complexity. Our research aims to bring a systematic understanding of which parametric uncertainties most substantially affect long-term planning decisions in energy system models.
In the third article, we focus on seasonal flexibility in the European natural gas market. We develop a market optimization model to simulate the operation of the gas market over a long period. This allows us to explore structural trends in market development, which are driven by changing supply and demand fundamentals. Our work contributes to the methodological question of how to measure the contributions of different flexibility options.
Finally, the fourth article investigates the value of Projects of Common Interest—gas infrastructure projects supported by EU public funds—in maintaining gas system resilience amid cold-winter demand spikes and supply shortages. For this purpose, we develop the first application of adaptive robust optimization to gas infrastructure expansion planning. The model endogenously identifies the unfortunate realizations of unknown parameters and suggests the optimal investments strategies to address them. We find that (i) robust solutions point to consistent preferences for specific infrastructure projects, (ii) the real-world construction efforts have been focused on the most promising projects, and (iii) most projects are unlikely to be realized without financial support.
In this dissertation, I present five articles regarding two relevant discussions within the field of energy economics: First, three papers discuss the German energy transition and in particular the increasing shares of renewable energies, its cost, benefits and respective challenges to its realization. Second, two papers discuss potential asymmetric pricing in the retail fuel sector in Germany, realizing an analysis with significantly improved data sets compared to earlier studies to answer more specific research questions.
The first three articles focus on the reconstruction of the German energy market into a low-carbon emission setting, especially by utilizing renewable energies. First, the analysis concentrates on the developing energy policy-related goals and the energy economic status-quo, such as the functioning of the system of feed-in tariffs within the market for renewable energies and its general effects on costs. Second, the study deals more deeply and with a quantitative emphasis on the roll-out of renewable energies in Germany and especially its economic effects, such as costs and benefits for energy consumers. Results showed that until 2030, German electricity consumers will pay around €2011 200 billion for RES installations built before the end of 2011. Third, related to the public opinion on the energy transition process, the dissertation unfolded challenges and misconceptions and offers implications for an improved communication approach. The analysis showed by the use of qualitative, semi-structured, in-depth expert interviews that despite the alleged clarity of goals, about two dozen questioned German energy stakeholders have very diverse reasons for the energy transition. The results indicated that one crucial reason is climate protection while a second one is energy autarchy. However, the heterogeneity of goals and conflicting objectives can lead to social tensions and mistrust, which can be appropriately addressed with specific communication methods (e.g. infographics).
The last two articles focus on econometric analyses regarding potential asymmetric pricing within the German retail fuel sector. In particular, the two papers examine the potential existence of Rockets and Feathers, i.e. higher adjustment speeds of retail fuel prices after oil price increases compared to oil price decreases. The dissertation analyzed a tremendous amount of data regarding retail diesel prices from two databases, compiled and processed by the author. The analysis proved with the help of Error Correction Models (following Engle/Granger) that e.g. specific major brands of retail fuel station as well as the local competitive environment influence the probability of Rockets and Feathers. Additionally, the analysis revealed that the nature of Rockets and Feathers is not static over time, i.e. the magnitude of the effect has dynamics across different time periods and consumer behavior can be seen as one reason for the phenomenon of asymmetric pricing.
The German government has set ambitious targets for wind energy expansion and has implemented policy schemes aimed at facilitating market deployment of wind-generated electricity. Data on German wind energy market has shown that, wind energy generating capacity is increasing correspondingly towards the targeted values. Germany is the largest wind energy market in the EU (wind energy accounting for about 10% of the total electricity consumption in Germany) with an installed capacity of about 38.2 GW onshore by the close of 2014. The success of these policies has prompted other countries globally to adopt similar support schemes for renewable energies. However, the rapid growth of wind energy generation in Germany equally faces numerous challenges. Some of these problems are inherent to the wind energy technology while others are caused by the very policies instruments used to support wind energy expansion, such as limited availability of designated areas for wind energy development, non-uniform regulations, and rising prices. The objective of this research, therefore, is to assess the impact of the German energy and environmental policies on onshore wind energy development and to explore implementation options of the German model in Cameroon.
This research has examined the German onshore wind energy sector from a policy perspective based on existing literature, semi-structured interviews with major stakeholders, a case study of Brandenburg and a survey, with the aim of investigating the acceptance of wind energy and challenges the developers are facing.
Based on the study results, it can be affirmed that the future growth of the German onshore market will come from flexible government policies, which may offer fewer incentives to investors. Indeed, the cost of electricity from renewable energy technologies in Germany is in some cases already below retail rates. There is the need, therefore, to pursue strategic programmes that enhances market integration of wind energy. Furthermore, the study results equally shows that the German feed-in tariff based support scheme in its current form, cannot be implemented in Cameroon. This is because, the purchasing power of the Cameroonian population and the economic constraints of the government, makes it difficult or even impossible to adopt the current EEG model in Cameroon where often, basic needs are subsidized.
Der Energiewirtschaft kam in Deutschland schon immer eine Sonderrolle zu. Bis zur grundlegenden Neuerung durch die Energierechtsnovelle aus dem Jahr 1998 besaßen die Unternehmen einen monopolistischen Versorgungsauftrag. Die Neufassung des Energiewirtschaftsgesetzes bewirkte jedoch grundlegende Veränderungen der vertikalen und horizontalen Strukturen – und damit, so lässt sich vermuten, auch in der Öffentlichkeitsarbeit. Aber das EnWG sollte nicht der letzte Einschnitt in der Energiewirtschaft sein. Durch das Atomunglück in Fukushima/Japan im Jahr 2011 hat sich die Energielandschaft ein weiteres Mal massiv verändert. Die Themen Klimaschutz, erneuerbare Energien oder Smart-Home-Lösungen treten vermehrt in den Fokus der Verbraucher. Wie aber gehen die Energieversorger mit diesen Änderungen um? Dies soll die vorliegende Arbeit aufzeigen. Dabei wird sich auf die audiovisuellen Werbemaßnahmen der vier größten Energieversorger E.ON, RWE, EnBW und Vattenfall im Zeitraum vom 1998 und 2014 bezogen. Es wird aufgezeigt ob und welche Maßnahmen die Unternehmen nutzen um sich medienöffentlich darzustellen. Es wird analysiert wie die Werbestrategien der Energieversorgungsunternehmen seit dem politischen Einleiten der Energiewende zu bewerten sind und welchem Leitgedanken die Werbeclips folgen. Dabei wird der Vergleich zu Clips aus dem Zeitraum vor der Energiewende hinzugezogen, um eine mögliche Veränderung hinsichtlich des Images bestmöglich zu beschreiben. Zugleich wird die Werbung auf ihren Inhalt und deren reale Umsetzung geprüft, also der Disparität von „Schein und Sein“.
Die kumulative Habilitationsschrift setzt sich aus acht Publikationen und zwei eingereichten Artikeln zusammen, die umweltökonomische und energiewirtschaftliche Forschungsthemen behandeln. Der gemeinsame thematische Hintergrund der Einzelbeiträge besteht in der Analyse von Regulierungsmodellen. Auf der theoretischen Ebene liegt der Schwerpunkt der Habilitationsschrift in der umwelt- und wettbewerbsökonomischen Effizienzanalyse von Regulierungsmodellen auf Boden- und Strommärkten. Auf der Anwendungsebene behandeln die Einzelbeiträge sowohl empirisch-analytische Verfahren als auch methodische Ansätze. Die Habilitationsschrift ist in drei Teilbereiche gegliedert. Teilbereich I beinhaltet eine Analyse von umweltökonomischen Regulierungsmodellen der Flächennutzung. In Teilbereich II wird die Problematik einer effizienten Regulierung auf unvollkommenen Energiemärkten weitergeführt. Im III. Teilbereich wird die Integration von umweltökonomischen Bewertungsverfahren in Regulierungsmodelle auf Energiemärkten untersucht.