@phdthesis{Trinh2023, author = {Trinh, Xuan Manh}, title = {A methodological framework for future flood risk assessment in ungauged and data-scarce coastal river catchments in Southeast Asia}, doi = {10.26127/BTUOpen-6441}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:co1-opus4-64411}, school = {BTU Cottbus - Senftenberg}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Ungauged and data-scarce coastal river catchments, small and medium-sized ones in particular, are popular worldwide, especially in developing countries in Southeast Asia. In general, coastal river catchments are exposed to various coastal hazards such as fluvial floods, typhoons, and sea-level rise. In addition, climate change and socio-economic development will substantially change global flood risks. However, in scientific research, flood risk and future flood risk assessments in such coastal river catchments have not been significantly considered. Therefore, the overall objective of this thesis is to propose an innovative methodological framework for modeling and evaluating flood risk in such river catchments in the future under the impacts of climate change, sea-level rise, and land-use change based on using numerical models (hydrological models and land-use change models) and remote sensing data (satellite images and precipitation) in combination with other state-of-the-art methods, tools and models, and new approaches, such as flood risk assessment methods, regionalization methods, and statistical downscaling methods. The proposed framework was adopted, applied, and validated successfully for a case study - Tra Bong River Catchment - on the south-central coast of Vietnam as a test application. The main conclusion of this research is that the proposed framework can provide valuable information and projections of changing future flood risk associated with climatic and socio-economic changes in ungauged and data-scarce coastal river catchments. The proposed framework is designed with free model and method choices, meaning that it can apply different methods and tools for each step depending on the natural characteristics of river catchments, data collection, tools, and understanding of models, etc. Finally, this research can be used as a technical reference for designing and building national, regional, or local frameworks/guidelines for assessing future flood risk in ungauged and data-scarce coastal river catchments in Vietnam and other countries in Southeast Asia.}, subject = {Methodological framework; Numerical models; Flood risks; Climate change; Ungauged catchments; Methodologisches Modellierungskonzept; Numerische Modelle; Hochwasserrisiko; Klimawandel; Einzugsgebiete ohne Messdaten; Mittelvietnam; K{\"u}stengew{\"a}sser; Klimawandel; Hochwasser; Datenerhebung; Methodologie; Modllierung; Numerisches Modell}, language = {en} } @article{FrimpongKorantengOpoku2023, author = {Frimpong, Bernard Fosu and Koranteng, Addo and Opoku, Fosu Senior}, title = {Analysis of urban expansion and its impact on temperature utilising remote sensing and GIS techniques in the Accra metropolis in Ghana (1986-2022)}, doi = {10.1007/s42452-023-05439-z}, year = {2023}, abstract = {The Accra Metropolis of Ghana has experienced rapid urban expansion over the past decades. Agricultural and forest-lands have been transformed into urban/built-up areas. This study analysed urban expansion and its relationship with the temperature of Accra from 1986 to 2022. Multi-source datasets such as remote sensing (RS) and other ancillary data were utilised. Land use land cover (LULC) maps were produced employing the random forests classifier. Land surface temperature (LST) and selected d(RS) Indices were extracted. Regression techniques assessed the interplay between LST and remote sensing indices. The LULC maps revealed increasing trends in the urban/built-up areas at the expense of the other LULC types. The analysis from the LST and the RS indices revealed a direct relationship between temperature and urban/built-up areas and an inverse relationship between temperature and vegetation. Thus, spatial urban expansion has modified the urban temperature of Accra. The integrated utilisation of RS and GIS demonstrated to be an efficient approach for analysing and monitoring urban expansion and its relationship with temperature.}, subject = {Urban expansion; Change detection; Land use land cover; Regression; Remote sensing; St{\"a}dtische Expansion; Erkennung von Ver{\"a}nderungen; Landnutzung Landbedeckung; Temperatur; Fernerkundung; Accra; Stadt; Expansion; Landnutzung; Temperatur; Fernerkundung}, language = {en} } @article{FrimpongMolkenthinKoranteng2022, author = {Frimpong, Bernard Fosu and Molkenthin, Frank and Koranteng, Addo}, title = {Analysis of temperature variability utilising Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator tests in the Accra and Kumasi metropolises in Ghana}, doi = {10.1186/s40068-022-00269-1}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Temperature variability may have direct and indirect impacts on the environments of the Accra and Kumasi Metropolises in Ghana. This study analysed temperature and trends in temperature in both cities using in-situ measurements from one meteorological station in both cities from 1986 to 2015. The temperature indices were computed using the RClimdex package from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI). The temperature time series was pre-whitened before the Mann-Kendall trend and Sen's slope estimator analysis were applied. Initial analysis revealed minimal variation in temperature in both cities. The results from the analysed temperature indices revealed an increase in warm days and a general rise in the minimum temperature compared to maximum temperatures. Mann Kendall and Sen's slope revealed significant trends in the annual and seasonal (dry and wet seasons) in minimum temperature in both cities. These might lead to an increased rate of heat-stressed diseases and an overall rise in urban warming in both cities. The analysis of temperature, indices and trends provided comprehensive insights into the temperature of Accra and Kumasi. The results highlight the essence of evaluating temperature indices and trends in light of Climate Change concerns. It is recommended that urban green and blue spaces should be incorporated into land use plans as these policy directions can aid regulate the temperature in both cities.}, subject = {Temperature variability; Mann-Kendall test; Sen's slope estimator; Accra; Kumasi; Temperaturvarabilit{\"a}t; Sen-Slope Sch{\"a}tzer; Accra; Kumasi; Temperatur; Schwankung}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Frimpong2022, author = {Frimpong, Bernard Fosu}, title = {Analysis of the relationship between spatial urban expansion and temperature utilising remote sensing and GIS techniques in the Accra and Kumasi Metropolises in Ghana}, doi = {10.26127/BTUOpen-6073}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:co1-opus4-60730}, school = {BTU Cottbus - Senftenberg}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Accra and Kumasi are the two major cities in Ghana. Spatial urban expansion has been experienced in transforming different non-urban Land Use Land Cover (LULC) types into urban/built-up areas with a potential direct relationship to temperature rise in the cities. Thus, this dissertation aims to establish the relationship between urban spatial expansion and temperature in Accra and Kumasi metropolis. Multi-source datasets such as remote sensing images, different GIS vector layers, reference maps and historical temperature datasets were used for this retrospective study. This research was grouped under three components: environmental science, environmental technology, as well as environmental management and planning. From the environmental science component, LULC maps were produced for different years to assess the trend of temporal change in the various LULC classes in the two metropolises. Remote sensing indices and land surface temperature were retrieved from the remote sensing images to determine their correlations. Temperature time series was analysed by calculating temperature indices and determining temporal trends to reveal changes in air temperature to detect urban warming and its impacts. From the environmental technology, the novel random forest algorithm was utilised to classify the satellite images of both cities since previous works have utilised other traditional classifiers. The satellite imageries were used for point-based estimation of temperature to determine Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) hotspots. For environmental management and planning, spatial urban expansion techniques were utilised to ascertain trends in urban/built-up areas, especially in both cities' sub-metropolitan zones. For prescient purposes, future LULC modelling was implemented to provide insights into the proportions of the various LULC changes in 2025. The analysis identified two salient findings: increased urban/built-up areas at the expense of agricultural and forestlands throughout the study period and the positive correlation between spatial urban expansion and temperature. This indicated warming up of urban temperature in both cities. The major findings in this dissertation provided evidence of how integrated datasets and research techniques can be utilised for LULC changes to determine the relationship between spatial urban expansion and temperature at local scales. Institutions such as metropolitan assemblies and policymakers may adopt the concepts demonstrated in this work to rapidly assess urban environments and investigate the relationship between spatial urban expansion and temperature.}, subject = {Spatial urban expansion; Temperature; Land Use Land Cover; Remote sensing; GIS; Urbane Expansion; Temperatur; Landnutzung; Landbedeckung; Fernerkundung; Ghana; Landnutzung; Großstadt; Temperatur; Fernerkundung; Geoinformationssystem}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{He2020, author = {He, Qianwen}, title = {Evaluating the effect of multi-objective calibration on the modeling of catchment-scale hydrology and nitrogen load}, doi = {10.26127/BTUOpen-5233}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:co1-opus4-52330}, school = {BTU Cottbus - Senftenberg}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Process-based hydrological models, which simulate nitrogen load from its sources to the receiving waterbody, play an important role in supporting catchment management. The reliability of those models, such as the representative model SWAT used in this study, is determined by a sound calibration and the analysis of the prediction uncertainty. The multi-objective calibration approach prevails the classic single-objective calibration on the spatial parameterization of specific processes. However, the requirement of additional observations and practical procedures limits its application. Moreover, the prediction uncertainty of nitrogen load is inevitable and should also be quantified. This study is a scientific contribution to catchment management by overcoming the challenge with a systematic, well-founded concept of multi-objective calibration and uncertainty analysis for nitrogen load simulation in data-scarce catchments. The concept is tested and proofed by its practical applicability on the Yuan River Catchment (YRC) in China and leads to a generalized, recommended procedure for catchment management application as valuable progress in this field. The study proposed to apply three groups of objectives, multi-site, multi-objective-function, and multi-metric. The applicability and the advantages of two multi-objective calibration approaches, Euclidean Distance and Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II were analyzed. To quantify the prediction uncertainty, the study proposed to use the simulations with the highest or the lowest percent bias to represent the uncertainty band of the nitrogen load from the critical source areas (CSAs) and to the stream. The data-scarcity of the YRC was overcome by metrics obtained from open-access satellite-based datasets and metrics extracted from the existing discharge observations. Results show that multi-objective calibration has ensured the model's better performance in terms of the spatial parameterization, the magnitude of the output time-series and the water balance components, in comparison to single-objective calibration. The predicted CSAs showed that 50\% of the total nitrogen (TN) loading to the stream was from 26.3\% to 37.1\% of the area in the YRC. Meanwhile, over 50\% of those TN were from the paddy field. Recommendations for application go to the multi-objective calibration considering all three groups of objectives. Approaches to obtain multi-metric objectives in the YRC are also applicable for catchments with data-scarcity. Recommendations for nitrogen management in the YRC is to emphasize the CSAs identified, especially the paddy field.}, subject = {Multi-objective calibration; Prediction uncertainty; Hydrological modeling; Catchment with data-scarcity; Nitrogen load simulation; Multikriterielle Kalibrierung; Vorhersageunsicherheit; Hydrologische Modellierung; Datenarme Einzugsgebiete; Simulation der Stickstoffbelastung; Roter Fluss; Mathematische Modellierung; SWAT< Software>; Wasserherkunftsgebiet; Stickstoffbelastung; Mehrkriterielle Optimierung}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Filetti2017, author = {Filetti, Mirko}, title = {Open Source basierte Virtuelle Forschungsumgebungen f{\"u}r Projekte in der {\"o}kologischen Langzeitforschung : das „Rapid L-TER VRE" Baukastenkonzept zur schnellen und nachhaltigen Realisierung}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:co1-opus4-48405}, school = {BTU Cottbus - Senftenberg}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Virtuelle Forschungsumgebungen (VRE), sind Plattformen auf Basis von Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien (engl. ICT) mit ganzheitlichem Ansatz, die das wissenschaftliche Arbeiten im Team und insbesondere dessen Kommunikation und Organisation unterst{\"u}tzen sollen. Sie haben zum Ziel, schneller und besser zu nachvollziehbaren Ergebnissen zu gelangen, als bisher. Projekte in der {\"o}kologischen Langzeitforschung (engl. long-term ecological research, im Folgenden als L-TER bezeichnet) sind durch den Langzeitaspekt und Raumbezug in der Regel umfangreiche Projekte mit mittleren und großen Datenmengen (Medium Data und Big Data) sowie interdisziplin{\"a}ren, {\"o}rtlich verteilten Forschungsgruppen. Sie sind daher pr{\"a}destiniert f{\"u}r den Einsatz von VREs. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die spezifischen Aspekte und Anforderungen an virtuelle Forschungsumgebungen von L-TER Projekten im Kontext der Umweltinformatik. Dazu wird der Begriff „L-TER VRE" eingef{\"u}hrt. Grundlage hierf{\"u}r ist der Stand des Wissens zu allgemeinen VREs, Datenmanagement und ICT, die interdisziplin{\"a}r in Verbindung gebracht werden mit den Zielen, Methoden und Daten der L-TER (z.B. Analyse von Zeitreihen). Es zeigt sich, dass sich die Anforderungen an L-TER VREs - aufgrund ihres Einsatzbereiches f{\"u}r langfristige L-TER Projekte - in der Nachhaltigkeit durch ihre Persistenz (Daten, Infrastruktur), Flexibilit{\"a}t (projektspezifische Rahmenbedingungen), der eingesetzten ICT und vom Faktor „Mensch" mit seinem gesellschaftlichen Umfeld von VREs f{\"u}r andere Aufgaben unterscheiden. Aus den Erkenntnissen wird ein innovatives Baukastenkonzept mit dem Namen „Rapid L-TER VRE" zur Planung, dem Aufbau und Betrieb von L-TER VREs vorgestellt. Es basiert auf Open-Source-Software und kann durch die gemeinsame Basis der Bausteine auch f{\"u}r allgemeine VREs Verwendung finden. Da VREs oder {\"a}hnliche ICT-Infrastrukturen im Rahmen von „e-Science" als R{\"u}ckgrat f{\"u}r die Organisation der Projekte pr{\"a}destiniert sind, ist der Aufbau solcher Infrastrukturen oft schon zur Voraussetzung bei der Antragstellung von Projekten geworden. Ein Prototyp sollte daher bereits vor oder bei der Antragstellung existieren. Sp{\"a}testens zum Projektbeginn muss eine Produktivumgebung zur Verf{\"u}gung stehen. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist das Konzept „Rapid L-TER VRE" speziell f{\"u}r eine schnelle (engl. rapid) Entwicklung von VRE Prototypen mit einer kurzen {\"U}bergangsphase in den Produktivbetrieb ausgelegt. Das Baukastenkonzept wird auf verschiedene existierende Projekte im Umfeld des Fachgebietes „Environmental Informatics" und der Fakult{\"a}t „Umwelt und Naturwissenschaften" der BTU Cottbus-Senftenberg konzeptionell, sowie in der Form von Prototypen angewendet und dessen Anwendbarkeit allgemein bewertet. Aus den Erkenntnissen werden allgemeine Schlussfolgerungen in Bezug auf den Einsatz von Technologien und die Nachhaltigkeit f{\"u}r den erfolgreichen Betrieb von L-TER VREs gezogen - dabei steht der Mensch als „maßgeblicher" Faktor im Mittelpunkt.}, subject = {Virtuelle Forschungsumgebung; {\"O}kologische Langzeitforschung; Umweltinformatik; E-Science; Open-Source; Virtual research environment; Long-term ecological research; Environmental informatics; E-Science; Open-Source; Umweltinformatik; Virtuelle Forschungsumgebung}, language = {de} } @masterthesis{Niebisch2016, type = {Bachelor Thesis}, author = {Niebisch, Michael}, title = {Generierung von Niederschlagszeitreihen f{\"u}r Niederschlagsstationen in der Niederlausitz}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:co1-opus4-41565}, school = {BTU Cottbus - Senftenberg}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Die zeitliche Variabilit{\"a}t des Niederschlages auf Skalen von Jahren bis hin zu Ereignissen ist von wesentlicher Bedeutung f{\"u}r die Untersuchung hydrologischer Prozesse. Langj{\"a}hrige Reihen von Niederschlagsdaten mit einer hohen zeitlichen Aufl{\"o}sung stehen nur selten zur Verf{\"u}gung. Eine M{\"o}glichkeit, die Einfl{\"u}sse der Variabilit{\"a}t von Niederschl{\"a}gen auf die hydrologischen Prozesse dennoch zu quantifizieren, ist es, stochastisch generierte Reihen als Eingangsdaten f{\"u}r hydrologische Modelle zu nutzen. In dieser Arbeit wurde ein stochastischer Niederschlagsgenerator der aus zwei Stufen besteht, entwickelt. Zun{\"a}chst erfolgt die Generierung von Niederschlagsereignissen durch ein Poisson-Rectangular-Pulse (PRP) Modell, anschließend werden diese Ereignisse durch eine mikrokanonische multiplikative Zufallskaskade disaggregiert. Die Methodik wurde in die frei zug{\"a}ngliche Software R implementiert.}, subject = {Niederschlagsgenerator; Niederschlag; Disaggregierung; Niederlausitz; Disaggregation; Precipitation generator; Niederlausitz}, language = {de} } @phdthesis{Notay2015, author = {Notay, Kunwar Vikramjeet Singh}, title = {Model coupling in hydroinformatics systems through the use of autonomous tensor objects}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:co1-opus4-36182}, school = {BTU Cottbus - Senftenberg}, year = {2015}, abstract = {There is an increased focus on interdisciplinary research in hydroinformatic related projects for applications such as integrated water resources management, climate change modelling, etc. The solution of common problems in interdisciplinary projects requires the integration of hydroinformatic models into hydroinformatic systems by coupling of models, enabling them to efficiently share and exchange information amongst themselves. Coupling of models is a complex task and involves various challenges. Such challenges arise due to factors such as models required to be coupled together lacking coupling capabilities, different models having different internal data formats, lack of a coupling mechanism, etc. From the perspective of physics, different models may use different discretisations in space and time, operate on different scales in space and time, etc. A model coupling concept using a coupling broker, that is independent from the coupled models, has been developed in this work and been implemented as a prototype for a software framework for coupling hydroinformatic models. It is based on the approach of tensor objects and the ideas of the OpenMI standard for model coupling. Tensor objects are a complete representation of physical state variables including dimensions, units, values, coordinate systems, geometry, topology and metadata. They are autonomous entities that can adapt themselves to the requirements of coupled models through operations such as scaling, mapping, interpolation in space and time, etc. The central entity in coupling is the Tensor Exchange Server, which acts as the coupling broker. It is responsible for defining the coupling mechanism, brokering the communication between the models and adapting the information to the requirements of the coupled models by taking advantage of the functionality provided by tensor objects. By fulfilling these roles in coupling, the coupling broker concept goes one step further than tools such as the OpenMI standard and facilitates the task of coupling models since each coupled model doesn't individually need to be adapted to be able to perform these tasks on its own. The usefulness of the coupling broker concept for coupling models is demonstrated with the help of three application examples: firstly, a subsurface-flow model coupled with a model simulating metabolism in the hyporheic zone, secondly, a subsurface-flow model coupled with a surface-flow model and finally, an information management system presenting the results of a hydrodynamic simulation of a section of the river Rhine. These examples demonstrate the extensibility and flexibility of the presented coupling concept, which can be used to couple multiple hydroinformatic models in hydroinformatic systems.}, subject = {Model coupling; Tensor objects; Hydroinformatics; Software framework; Modellkopplung; Hydroinformatik; Tensorobjekte; Hydrologie; Informatik; Tensor; Modellverbindung}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Li2015, author = {Li, Chi-Yu}, title = {Time series scenario composition framework in Hydroinformatics Systems}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:co1-opus4-33650}, school = {BTU Cottbus - Senftenberg}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Since Z3, the first automatic, programmable and operational computer, emerged in 1941, computers have become an unshakable tool in varieties of engineering researches, studies and applications. In the field of hydroinformatics, there exist a number of tools focusing on data collection and management, data analysis, numerical simulations, model coupling, post-processing, etc. in different time and space scales. However, one crucial process is still missing — filling the gap between available mass raw data and simulation tools. In this research work, a general software framework for time series scenario composition is proposed to improve this issue. The design of this framework is aimed at facilitating simulation tasks by providing input data sets, e.g. Boundary Conditions (BCs), generated for user-specified what-if scenarios. These scenarios are based on the available raw data of different sources, such as field and laboratory measurements and simulation results. In addition, the framework also monitors the workflow by keeping track of the related metadata to ensure its traceability. This framework is data-driven and semi-automatic. It contains four basic modules: data pre-processing, event identification, process identification, and scenario composition. These modules mainly involve Time Series Knowledge Mining (TSKM), fuzzy logic and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) to extract features from the collected data and interconnect themselves. The extracted features together with other statistical information form the most fundamental elements, MetaEvents, for scenario composition and further time series generation. The MetaEvents are extracted through semi-automatic steps forming Aspects, Primitive Patterns, Successions, and Events from a set of time series raw data. Furthermore, different state variables are interconnected by the physical relationships derived from process identification. These MetaEvents represent the complementary features and consider identified physical relationships among different state variables from the available time series data of different sources rather than the isolated ones. The composed scenarios can be further converted into a set of time series data as, for example, BCs, to facilitate numerical simulations. A software prototype of this framework was designed and implemented on top of the Java and R software technologies. The prototype together with four prototype application examples containing mathematical function-generated data, artificial model-synthetic hydrological data, and measured hydrological and hydrodynamic data, are used to demonstrate the concept. The results from the application examples present the capability of reproducing similar time series patterns from specific scenarios compared to the original ones as well as the capability of generating artificial time series data from composed scenarios based on the interest of users, such as numerical modelers. In this respect, it demonstrates the concept's capability of answering the impacts from what-if scenarios together with simulation tools. The semi-automatic concept of the prototype also prevents from inappropriate black-box applications and allows the consideration of the knowledge and experiences of domain experts. Overall, the framework is a valuable and progressive step towards holistic hydroinformatics systems in reducing the gap between raw data and simulation tools in an engineering suitable manner.}, subject = {TSKM; Event identification; Time series analysis; Scenario composition; Hydroinformatics; TSKM; Ereigniserkennung; Zeitreihenanalyse; Szenariokomposition; Hydroinformatik; Hydrologie; Datenbank; Zeitreihe; Algorithmus}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Gaedeke2014, author = {G{\"a}deke, Anne}, title = {Climate and land use change impacts on water resources in the Lusatian river catchments (Germany) - Analysis and assessment considering modelling uncertainties}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:co1-opus4-32519}, school = {BTU Cottbus - Senftenberg}, year = {2014}, abstract = {In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments Spree and Schwarze Elster in Germany, the robust assessment of potential impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for water resources management. Large uncertainties inherent in future scenarios may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholders to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This thesis proposes the use of an integrated framework consisting of i) an ensemble based modelling approach and ii) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological and hydrological trends to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments. In addition, land use, as the most responsive catchment characteristic to buffer potential climate change impacts, is considered as one suitable trigger for climate change adaptation. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs): two dynamical and two statistical. These DAs drive different model configurations of the two conceptually different hydrological models WaSiM ETH and HBV light. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: trends in measured time series can i) be regarded as harbinger for future change and ii) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The suitability of land use change as an adaptation strategy to climate change is evaluated in the form of different land use change scenarios: i) extreme scenarios where the entire catchment is parameterised as coniferous forest and uncultivated land and ii) scenarios of changes in crop cultivation and ii) a combination of a change in crop cultivation and forest conversion. As study areas serve three almost natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany). The results of the ensemble based climate change impact analysis show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031 2060). While the statistical DAs simulate a decrease in future long term annual precipitation, the dynamical DAs simulate a tendency towards increasing precipitation. The trend analysis suggests that measured precipitation has not changed significantly during the period 1961 2006. Therefore, the strong decrease in precipitation simulated by the statistical DAs should be interpreted as a rather dry future scenario. The dynamical DAs, on the other hand, are too wet in the reference period and needed to be statistically bias corrected which destroys the physical consistency between the parameters. Concerning temperature, measured and simulated trends agree on a positive trend. The uncertainty related to the hydrological model within the climate change modelling chain is comparably low when long term averages are considered but increases during low flow events. The proposed framework of combining an ensemble based modelling approach with trend analysis on measurements is a promising approach to gain more confidence into the final results of climate change impact assessments and to obtain an increased process understanding of the interrelation between climate and water resources. In terms of climate change adaptation, land use alternatives can have a considerable impact on the water balance components as the analysis of the extreme scenarios revealed. The scenarios of changes in crop cultivation in combination with forest conversion show, however, that the impact on the long term annual water balance is comparably low. An intra annual shift in the water balance components can be triggered which makes these scenarios suitable to reduce low flow risks during the summer. Overall, land use change can serve as one part of an integrated climate change adaptation strategy. Such as strategy needs, depending on the severity of the climate change impact, to include other, especially technical measures of water resources management, such as additional water storage, different strategies to manage the existing and new reservoirs. It may also consider additional water transfers from neighbouring, more water rich, river catchments. Regional adaptation planning needs also to consider problems related to water quality which are a consequence of the long term mining activities in the Lusatian river catchments. Last but not least, adaptation strategies should not only consider climate but also other aspects of global change.}, subject = {Land use change; Climate change impact assessment; Trend analysis; Lausitzer Flusseinzugsgebiete; Trendanalyse; Klimawandelimpaktanalyse; Landnutzungswandel; Unsicherheit; Uncertainty; Lusatian river catchments; Spree; Schwarze Elster; Einzugsgebiet; Klima{\"a}nderung; Klimamodell; Wasserwirtschaft; Landnutzung}, language = {en} }