BERG working paper series
- Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Finanzwissenschaft (16)
The social welfare function of forests in the light of the theory of public goods
Agent-based models for economic policy design : two illustrative examples
Frank H. Westerhoff
Political cycles in income from privatization: The case of Albania
- The phenomenon of manipulation of the economy by the incumbent for electoral purpose is called
Political Business Cycles (PBC). Using policy control economic instruments, such as fiscal and monetary
instruments, governments may manipulate the economy to gain electoral advantage by producing growth
and decreasing unemployment before elections.
Earlier research on PBC in Albania found clear evidence of fiscal expansion before elections. In addition
to increased income from taxes and borrowing, another source of financing the increased fiscal expansion
in transition countries may be income from privatization, which is also the object of the analysis of this
paper. In our analysis we apply standard econometric approach, used widely for research related to PBC.
We test if income from privatization increases before elections.
We find statistically significant increase of income from privatization before general (parliamentary)
elections, which may lead us to conclude that one of the reasons may be to finance increased expenditures
before elections. Another motivation, behind this behavior of the incumbent, may be rent – seeking.
These results are of particular interest, as it is for the first time that income from privatization is analyzed
in conjunction with PBC.
Die Auswirkungen der Steuer- und Sozialreformen der Jahre 1999-2005 auf die automatischen Stabilisatoren Deutschlands
Identification of Interaction Effects in Survey Expectations : a Cautionary Note
- A growing body of literature reports evidence of social interaction effects in survey expectations. In this note, we argue that evidence in favor of social interaction effects should be treated with caution, or could even be spurious. Utilizing a parsimonious stochastic model of expectation formation and dy- namics, we show that the existing sample sizes of survey expectations are about two orders of magnitude too small to reasonably distinguish between noise and interaction effects. Moreover, we argue that the problem is com- pounded by the fact that highly correlated responses among agents might not be caused by interaction effects at all, but instead by model-consistent beliefs. Ultimately, these results suggest that existing survey data cannot facilitate our understanding of the process of expectations formation.
The mission and culture of the corporation
- The economic crisis has brought a new situation also for the Hungarian economic
policy, as neoliberalism as the main trend in economic thought is no
longer valid. This phenomenon cannot be reduced to be a mere macroeconomic
course shift, as an entire economic philosophy and approach has lost its relevance.
One consequence of this is the need for a thorough revision of the theory
and practice of business management, along with the re-evaluation of the notion
and position of the corporation.
Our study aims to contribute to this theoretical reformation, presenting that social
values derived from psychological and sociological findings such as human
motivational theories or trust are fundamental elements of the 21st century corporate
model. To point to this, we use the ideological correspondences, while
proving that our national research on corporate theory and even rather its application
are far behind the 21st century requirements and lack even the Western
view of the 20th century.
Market concentration in the banking sector: Evidence from Albania
- The market structure can be described by concentration ratios based on the
oligopoly theory or the structure – conduct – performance paradigm. Measures of
concentration and also competition are essential for banks conduction in the
banking industry. Several researchers have proved concentration level to be major
determinants of banking system efficiency. Theoretical characteristics of market
concentration measures are illustrated with empirical evidence. The market
structure of the Albanian Banking Sector has changed dramatically in recent years.
On 1990s, our country has experienced deregulation, foreign bank penetration, and
an accelerated process of consolidation and competition in the banking sector.
Particularly, the working paper examines the nature and the extent of changes in
market concentration of Albanian banking sector. It focused primarily on a
descriptive and dynamic analysis of change in the concentration indices in banking
sector from year to year. Also it examines how the inherited structure of the
banking system affects the way of the distribution of market shares amongst the
different banks that comprise on the banking sector.
Staatliche Zinssubvention und Auslandsverschuldung: Eine Mittelwert-Varianz-Analyse am Beispiel Ungarn
- Dieser Artikel zeigt, dass eine Subvention der heimischen Kreditzinsen zu einem
Rückgang der Auslandsverschuldung führen kann. Ausgehend von der Mittelwert-
Varianz- und der Erwartungsnutzentheorie wurde ein Modell entwickelt, in dessen
Rahmen der Wirtschaftsakteur sein internationales Kreditportfolio optimiert.
Eine Einbeziehung der Zinsparitätenbedingung war in der Analyse jedoch nicht
zielführend. In den Modellrahmen wird eine staatliche Zinssubvention eingeführt
und ihre theoretische Wirkung auf die Fremdwährungsverschuldung der Haushalte
Elections related cycles in publicly supplied goods in Albania
- The phenomena of manipulation of the economy by the incumbent for electoral
purpose are called Political Business Cycles (PBC), introduced by Nordhaus (1975). Using
policy control economic instruments, as fiscal and monetary instruments, government may
manipulate the economy to gain electoral advantage by producing growth and decreasing
unemployment before elections.
In addition to increased public expenditures, also the production/supply of certain
publicly provided goods may score improvements. In Albania, production and supply of
electricity (for the time span of our analyzes) was controlled by KESH (Korporata
Energjitike Shqiptare – Albanian Energy Corporation) which is a quasi- monopoly in the
supply of electricity in Albania, and it is publicly run. Throughout the transition, supply of
electricity, due to various technical and economic reasons, has not been stable, and
characterized by systematic interruption for households and businesses users, affecting
their well-being and performance (electricity is a main source of energy for households,
including heating and cooking). Therefore, it seems so that there is an incentive and
rationale for the incumbent to use also the provision of electricity to impress the voters
before elections, beside of the classical instruments of expenditures.
In this paper we analyze consumption, production and import of electricity in Albania.
Our hypothesis is that before elections, electricity consumption may increase above usual
levels, followed by a contraction after elections. In our analysis we use modern standard
econometric approach, used widely for research related to PBC. By ARMA modelling it is
possible to prove if elections can explain changes in electricity production, in addition to
the past history of the variable and the random error term.
Anti-crisis measures in the Republic of Macedonia and their effects : are they sufficient?
- Macedonia's economy was not left behind by the global economic crisis as the
country's macroeconomic policymakers had hoped! Certainly, an economy open at
all and with a high degree of direct dependence on European and global economies
in general should not be saved by the crisis in financial top and then the global
economic. Transmission of negative effects but came a little late economic shocks
in the periphery are often stronger than the epicenter. In these circumstances
macroeconomic policymakers should be more proactive, coherent and dynamic
design of the following measures and economic policies increasingly based on
relevant research and analysis (decision making based on research and analysis).
Therefore, this analysis aims to develop and study in detail the measures in terms of
economy, Science and Technology of Macedonia in order to suggest a more
effective policy in accordance with business cycles, always comparing the
economic measures in other states with which the country has advanced reports on
economic but referring to specific local economic conditions. Accordingly the
specific activities recommended for further action.