Angewandte Physik
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- 2017 (2) (entfernen)
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- Burst requirements (1)
- Composite cylinder (1)
- Consequence (1)
- Cylinder (1)
- Monte Carlo simulation (1)
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- Safety (1)
The increasing amount of composite transport systems for hydrogen leads to new and therefore unknown potential hazards for general public. Due to lack of experience, risks of new technologies tend to be rated higher than existing familiar applications. An approach for probabilistic safety assessment of technologies or products requires the definition of minimal acceptable reliability levels. This ensures that the probability of a critical failure with a certain consequence is limited to an acceptable risk. But what is the acceptable risk and which risk results from specific probabilities of occurrence and consequences? This is always a very complex question. The following example is based on a probabilistic approach for safety assessment of composite cylinders developed at the BAM (Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing).
Existing standards for the approval of composite cylinders for the transport of compressed hydrogen are currently based on deterministic (ISO 11119-3) and semi-probabilistic (UN GTR No. 13) criteria. This paper analysis the capabilities of these procedures with respect to the evaluation of burst strength. Their characteristics are compared with the probabilistic approach developed at BAM. Based on Monte-Carlo simulations the available design range (mean value and scatter of burst strength) of all concepts are assessed. In addition, the probability of acceptance for potentially unsafe design types is determined.
The results show large areas of burst properties with a sufficient reliability which cannot be used for the design of composite cylinders, due to current approval criteria. On the other hand, existing standards allow the approval of potentially unsafe designs in case of a very high scatter regarding their burst strength.
It is also shown that existing design types are already designed to the limits of the available design area. A further weight and cost reduction of composite cylinders is therefore closely related to the approval criteria. An example based on UN GTR No. 13 shows how an approval criterion can be optimized by using statistical methods. The example shows that a reduced minimum burst pressure can be combined with a lower probability of acceptance for potentially unsafe design types.