7.7 Modellierung und Simulation
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Numerical models are an essential tool in predicting and monitoring the behavior of civil structures. Inferring the model parameters is a challenging tasks as they are often measured indirectly and are affected by uncertainties. Digital twins couple those models with real-world data and can introduce additional, systematic sensor uncertainties related to the sensor calibration, i.e. uncertain offsets and calibration factors.
In this work, the challenges of data processing, parameter identification, model selection and damage detection are explored using a lab-scale cable stayed bridge demonstrator. By combining force measurements in the cables with displacement measurements from both laser and stereo-photogrammetry systems, the elastic parameters of a three-dimensional finite element beam model are inferred.
Depending on the number of sensors and the number of datasets used, parametrizing the sensor offsets and factors, leads to model with over 100 parameters. With a real-time solution of the problem in mind, a highly efficient analytical variational Bayesian approach is used to solve it within seconds. An analysis of the required assumptions and limitations of the approach, especially w.r.t. to the computed evidence, is provided by a comparison with dynamic nested sampling in a simplified problem.
Finally, by inferring the value of additional damage parameters along the bridge, the method is successfully used to detect the location of an artificially introduced weak spot in the demonstrator bridge.
The quality of a model - and thus its predictive capabilities - is influenced by numerous uncertainties. They include possibly unknown boundary and initial conditions, noise in the data used for its calibration and uncertainties in the model itself. Here, the latter part is not only restricted to uncertain model parameters, but also refers to the choice of the model itself. Inferring these uncertainties in an automatic way allows for an adaption of the model to new data sets and for a reliable, reproducible model assessment. Note that similar concepts apply at the structural level, where a continuously updated digital twin allows virtual measurements at inaccessible positions of the structure and a simulation based lifetime prediction.
This work presents an inference workflow that describes the difference of measured data and simulated model responses with a generic interface that is independent from the specific model or even the geometry and can easily incorporate multiple data sources. A variational Bayesian inference algorithm is then used to a) calibrate a set of models to given data and to b) identify the best fitting one. The developed concepts are applied to a bridge Demonstrator equipped with displacement sensors, force sensors and a stereophotogrammetry system to perform a system identification of the material parameters as well as a real-time identification of a moving load.