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The risk analysis of road tunnels faces a growing complexity in fire scenarios, e.g. caused by new energy carriers. Essentially, such complex scenarios involve many interactions between the tunnel users, the fire source and the safety measures. One example is the alarm of tunnel users either initiated by the perception of smoke or by the fire alarm system. To consider these interactions for the quantification of consequences, e.g. fatalities, risk analysis requires a complex model. However, the complex model can compute in practice only few discrete scenarios due to its high computational cost, whereas risk analysis generally needs the consequences of a high number of random scenarios. Metamodels can solve this contradiction. They are able to approximate the consequences of many random scenarios with low computational cost based on the consequences of few discrete scenarios computed with the complex model. The efficiency of metamodels depends on the required number of these discrete scenarios. In this sense, this dissertation proposes an efficient metamodel within an innovative methodology for risk analysis of road tunnels to allow to consider an increased complexity of scenarios. This metamodel applies the following methods or models: the projection array-based design method specifies the experimental design for the discrete scenarios; the combination of the fire model FDS and the microscopic evacuation model FDS+Evac constitutes the complex model; and moving least squares produces the response surface model. The response surface model approximates the consequences of the random scenarios and therewith introduces an uncertainty, called metamodel uncertainty, which is quantified with the prediction interval method. Additionally, stochastic individual characteristics of tunnel users in discrete scenarios computed with FDS+Evac attribute evacuation uncertainties to the consequences. An original development in this dissertation, the ’direct approach’, directly transfers the evacuation uncertainties of the discrete scenarios to any random scenario. The evaluation of the metamodel in this dissertation shows following results. Firstly, the response surface model sufficiently represents the consequences of the complex model. Secondly, the metamodel uncertainty is also essential for this representation, but the prediction interval method reveals a drawback in the risk analysis. Potential approaches to deal with this drawback are discussed. Finally, the direct approach reproduces the evacuation uncertainty of the complex model which then clearly affects the consequences of random scenarios. Therefore, the consideration of the evacuation uncertainty plays an important role for the risk analysis. Furthermore, the projection array-based design method was adapted in this dissertation with two approaches, namely the combination of the experimental designs for FDS and FDS+Evac as well as their sequential refinement. Both approaches contribute to the efficiency of the metamodel. These results lead to following conclusions. Firstly, the metamodel efficiently integrates the consequences of discrete scenarios into risk analysis and thus allows to consider an increased complexity. Secondly, the metamodel is an advancement for risk analysis not only for road tunnelsbutalsomoregeneralinfiresafetyengineering. Forthesetworeasons,themetamodel might be interesting for other methodologies for risk analysis. In addition, the metamodel is generic and is therefore widely applicable on other issues beside from risk analysis, e.g. to assess the safety of structures related to time-consuming experiments depending on multiple variables.
Fatigue safety verification of existing bridges that uses ‘‘re-calculation’’ based on codes, usually results in insufficient fatigue safety, triggering invasive interventions. Instead of “re-calculation”, Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) should be used for the assessment of the existing bridges. Monitoring systems provide data that can reduce uncertainties associated with the fatigue loading process and the structural resistance. The objective of this paper is to quantify the value of the SHM system implemented in a 60-years-old road viaduct to investigate its fatigue safety, through modeling of the fundamental decisions of performing monitoring in conjunction with its expected utility. The quantification of the conditional value of information is based on the decision tree analysis that considers the structural reliability, various decision scenarios as well as the cost-benefit assessments. This leads to a quantitative decision basis for the owner about how much time and money can be saved while the viaduct fulfills its function reliably and respects the safety requirements. The originality of this paper stands in the application of the value of information theory to an existing viaduct considering the fatigue failure of the system based on the monitoring data and the cost-benefit of monitoring method.
Severe mechanical fatigue conditions for worldwide proliferating windfarms are a Major challenge for high-performance concrete in towers, connecting joints and foundations of wind turbines. High-performance concrete offers potential for the application in offshore windfarms, not only regarding its good mechanical, but also chemical resistivity due to low diffusivity in the highly densified microstructure. For a more reliable fatigue assessment, monitoring based on nondestructive testing can be a valuable complement to design rules. Both approaches demand reliable experimental data, information about scalability and the development of standardized testing methods. This article presents results of an ongoing research program of BAM (Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung), which is a part of a joint national project (WinConFat) funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The subproject implemented by BAM examines the fatigue behavior in dependence of size and slenderness for varying concrete strength at different stress levels. Besides fatigue strength, nondestructive testing is carried out additionally.
Methods used are strain measurement and ultrasonic testing. The change of strain, stiffness and ultrasonic pulse velocity in the fatigue process is discussed. Results disclose a deeper insight into the damage process under cyclic loading of high-performance concrete and contribute to improve nondestructive monitoring.
Severe mechanical fatigue conditions for worldwide proliferating windfarms are a Major challenge for high-performance concrete in towers, connecting joints and foundations of wind turbines. High-performance concrete offers potential for the application in offshore windfarms, not only regarding its good mechanical, but also chemical resistivity due to low diffusivity in the highly densified microstructure. For a more reliable fatigue assessment, monitoring based on nondestructive testing can be a valuable complement to design rules. Both approaches demand reliable experimental data, information about scalability and the development of standardized testing methods. This article presents results of an ongoing research program of BAM (Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung), which is a part of a joint national project (WinConFat) funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The subproject implemented by BAM examines the fatigue behavior in dependence of size and slenderness for varying concrete strength at different stress levels. Besides fatigue strength, nondestructive testing is carried out additionally.
Methods used are strain measurement and ultrasonic testing. The change of strain, stiffness and ultrasonic pulse velocity in the fatigue process is discussed. Results disclose a deeper insight into the damage process under cyclic loading of high-performance concrete and contribute to improve nondestructive monitoring.
Quantification of the posterior utilities of SHM campaigns on an orthotropic steel bridge deck
(2019)
This paper contains a quantification and decision theoretical optimization of the posterior utilities for several options for monitoring campaigns on the particular case of fatigue life predictions of an orthotropic steel deck. The monitoring campaigns are defined by varying monitoring durations and phases. The decision analysis is performed with real data from the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of the Great Belt Bridge (Denmark) which, among others, consist of measured strains, pavement temperatures and traffic intensities. The fatigue loading prediction model is based on regression models linking daily averaged pavement temperatures, daily aggregated heavy-traffic Counts and derived S-N fatigue damages, all of them derived from the outcomes of different monitoring campaigns. A probabilistic methodology is utilized to calculate the fatigue reliability profiles of selected instrumented welded joints. The posterior utilities of SHM campaigns are then quantified by considering the structural fatigue reliability, various monitoring campaigns and the corresponding cost-benefit models. The decisions of identifying the optimal monitoring campaign and of extending the service life or not in conjunction with monitoring results are modelled. The optimal monitoring campaign is identified - retrospectively - by maximizing the expected benefits and minimize risks in dependency of the monitoring duration and the monitoring associated costs. The results, despite relying on a number of simplistic assumptions, pave the way towards the use of pre-posterior decision support to optimise the design of monitoring campaigns for similar bridges, with an overall goal to proof the cost efficiency of SHM approaches to civil infrastructure management.
We introduce a new concept that enables a decision analyst to explore and quantify the benefits of decision alternatives that exceed the scope of a pre‐posterior decision or value of information analysis. This new concept, namely, the expected value of sample information and action analysis, facilitates to examine decision alternatives that become only possible with additional knowledge. The concept is introduced by taking basis in proof load testing as a source of (pre‐)posterior knowledge. Pre‐posterior decision analysis is necessary in order to optimize the structural design through proof loading information. The application of the common value of information Analysis and the new value of information and action analysis are demonstrated in a case study.
Risk Assessment and Value of Action Analysis for Icing Conditions of Wind Turbines Close to Highways
(2019)
The paper presents research results from the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network INFRASTAR in the field of reliability approaches for decision-making for wind turbines and bridges. This paper addresses the application of Bayesian decision analysis for installation of heating systems in wind turbine blades in cases where an ice detection system is already installed in order to allow wind turbines to be placed close to highways. Generally, application of ice detection and heating systems for wind turbines is very relevant in cases where the wind turbines are planned to be placed close to urban areas and highways, where risks need to be considered due to icing events, which may lead to consequences including human fatality, functional disruptions, and/or economic losses. The risk of people being killed in a car passing on highways near a wind turbine due to blades parts or ice pieces being thrown away in cases of overicing is considered in this paper. The probability of being killed per kilometer and per year is considered for three cases: blade parts thrown away as a result of a partial or total failure of a blade, ice thrown away in two cases, i.e., of stopped wind turbines and of wind turbines in operation. Risks due to blade parts being thrown away cannot be avoided, since low strengths of material, maintenance or manufacturing errors, mechanical or electrical failures may result in failure of a blade or blade part. The blade (parts) thrown away from wind turbines in operation imply possible consequences/fatalities for people near the wind turbines, including in areas close to highways.
Similar consequences are relevant for ice being thrown away from wind turbine blades during icing situations. In this paper, we examine the question as to whether it is valuable to put a heating System on the blades in addition to ice detection systems. This is especially interesting in countries with limited space for placing wind turbines; in addition, it is considered if higher power production can be obtained due to less downtime if a heating system is installed.
This paper presents a probabilistic methodology based on the thermo-mechanical finite elements analysis to investigate the impact of the variability of the thermal properties of the concrete in the fire safety of structures. This is meant to evaluate if characteristic values or safety factors for the conductivity and specific heat are
required during the semi-probabilistic structural fire safety assessment. To illustrate the use of the proposed methodology, this work includes a case-study with a tunnel lining which considers the uncertainties related to the thermal and mechanical properties of the concrete, the soil load, and the temperatures described by the
standard temperature-time curve. Two failure criteria are considered: one was the maximum temperature of 300 °C at the reinforcement and the other based on the temperature-dependent strength as provided in the Eurocode EN 1992-1-2. Several finite element analyses are performed. The design of experiments is executed by a Correlation Latin Hypercube Sampling. The calculated probability of failure has different values depending on the adopted failure criteria. A sensitivity analysis using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was carried out and demonstrates that the uncertainty related to the specific heat has the greatest impact on the results.
Today, in scientific events often a certain separation between researchers from laboratories with highly sophisticated equipment and those from less privileged laboratories can be observed. It is not an uncommon situation that results presented at conferences are rubbished or ridiculed because the investigator only used low-end analytical methods.
The assessment of the study is then biased based on the equipment, regardless of the actual quality of the study.
In many regions of the world the urbanisation process is accelerating dramatically. This puts pressure on urban planners but also politics to develop strategies for sustainable city growth. With the rapidly increasing demand for living space in urban areas, cities typically grow vertically. This is largely driven by real estate markets and sometimes also by the desire for status symbols.
Certainly, vertical urban growth makes sense, when horizontal growth destroys important flora and Fauna (e.g. in rain forest regions), but in many cases vertical growth is result of real-estate business and Expansion limitation due to state or country borders. However, economics and borders are made by humans. They follow human-made rules. Gravity does not. Therefore, from a point of view of sustainable materials and resourceuse, the trending vertical growth of cities may come under scrutiny.
The following aspects should be considered, when a decision is taken between a new quarter with limited number of storeys or a new skyscraper.