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Basics of statistic
(2017)
Conventional approval requirements exclusively ask for minimum strength values, which have to be met. The probabilistic approach estimates how likely none of the comparatively manufactured units fails during operation.
Both questions are juxtaposed and compared here with respect to the load cycle tests. The influence of the sample sizes is discussed additionally.
The increasing amount of composite transport systems for hydrogen leads to new and therefore unknown potential hazards for general public. Due to lack of experience, risks of new technologies tend to be rated higher than existing familiar applications. An approach for probabilistic safety assessment of technologies or products requires the definition of minimal acceptable reliability levels. This ensures that the probability of a critical failure with a certain consequence is limited to an acceptable risk. But what is the acceptable risk and which risk results from specific probabilities of occurrence and consequences? This is always a very complex question. The following example is based on a probabilistic approach for safety assessment of composite cylinders developed at the BAM (Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing).
Emergency response units increasingly use pressure cylinders made from fibre composites for breathing air as elements of personal protective equipment (PPE). Such applications expose the composite cylinders to harsh temperature and handling conditions. At least in Europe, standards have been used for certifying PPE, which are designed and mandatory for the approval of pressure receptacles for the transport of dangerous goods. Therefore, service conditions specific to PPEs are not accounted for in these standards. In this paper, BAM (Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing) investigates the residual safety of a composite cylinder design at the end of their designated service life of 15 years. The cylinders (test pressure PH 450 bars; 6.8 Litres) are of one design type with aluminium liner and fully wrapped with carbon fibres, which is commonly considered a “Type III” cylinder. All cylinders were used as PPE by the Berlin fire department and randomly picked in three samples of 25 cylinders each before tested.
At BAM, the cylinder samples underwent hydraulic load cycle tests (LCT), conventional burst tests (BT) and so called slow burst tests (SBT). A concept for quantification of strength degradation already introduced by BAM was applied. This concept is based on a probabilistic assessment of the average strength and scatter of each sample of cylinders. The strength distributions of the used PPEcylinders is shown and analysed. Some unexpected effects are shown and a refinement of the statistical assessment is introduced.