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One of the main challenges regarding our civil infrastructure is the efficient operation over their complete design lifetime while complying with standards and safety regulations. Thus, costs for maintenance or replacements must be optimized while still ensuring specified safety levels. This requires an accurate estimate of the current state as well as a prognosis for the remaining useful life. Currently, this is often done by regular manual or visual inspections within constant intervals. However, the critical sections are often not directly accessible or impossible to be instrumented at all. Model‐based approaches can be used where a digital twin of the structure is set up. For these approaches, a key challenge is the calibration and validation of the numerical model based on uncertain measurement data. The aim of this contribution is to increase the efficiency of model updating by using the advantage of model reduction (Proper Generalized Decomposition, PGD) and applying the derived method for efficient model identification of a random stiffness field of a real bridge.”
Numerical models built as virtual-twins of a real structure (digital-twins) are considered the future ofmonitoring systems. Their setup requires the estimation of unknown parameters, which are not directly measurable. Stochastic model identification is then essential, which can be computationally costly and even unfeasible when it comes to real applications. Efficient surrogate models, such as reduced-order method, can be used to overcome this limitation and provide real time model identification. Since their numerical accuracy influences the identification process, the optimal surrogate not only has to be computationally efficient, but also accurate with respect to the identified parameters. This work aims at automatically controlling the Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD) surrogate’s numerical accuracy for parameter identification. For this purpose, a sequence of Bayesian model identification problems, in which the surrogate’s accuracy is iteratively increased, is solved with a variational Bayesian inference procedure. The effect of the numerical accuracy on the resulting posteriors probability density functions is analyzed through two metrics, the Bayes Factor (BF) and a criterion based on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. The approach is demonstrated by a simple test example and by two structural problems. The latter aims to identify spatially distributed damage, modeled with a PGD surrogate extended for log-normal random fields, in two different structures: a truss with synthetic data and a small, reinforced bridge with real measurement data. For all examples, the evolution of the KL-based and BF criteria for increased accuracy is shown and their convergence indicates when model refinement no longer affects the identification results.