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- Fatigue (2)
- Value of information (2)
- Bayesian updating of measurement uncertainties (1)
- Daniels systems (1)
- Decision theory (1)
- Deterioration (1)
- Fracture mechanics (1)
- Inspection (1)
- Inspection planning (1)
- Integrity management (1)
Organisationseinheit der BAM
Inspections are an efficient means of enhancing the reliability of redundant structural Systems subjected to fatigue. To investigate the effect of such inspections, we represent the deterioration state of a Daniels System by means of a probabilistic fatigue crack growth model of all elements, which considers stochastic dependence among element fatigue behavior. We include inspection results in the calculation of the System collapse probability through Bayesian updating of the System deterioration state. Based on this approach, we calculate the collapse probability of a deteriorating Daniels System conditional on different inspection strategies in terms of inspection coverage and inspection times. The acceptability of an inspection strategy is verified by comparing the calculated collapse probabilities with maximum acceptable System failure probabilities. This study is a Step towards identifying optimal inspection strategies for redundant structural Systems subjected to fatigue.
Support structures of offshore wind turbines are subject to cyclic stresses generated by different time-variant random loadings such as wind, waves, and currents in combinationwith the excitation by the rotor. In the design phase, the cyclic demand on wind turbine support structure is calculated and forecasted with semi or fully probabilistic engineering models. In some cases, additional cyclic stresses may be induced by construction deviations, unbalanced rotor masses and structural dynamic phenomena such as, for example, the Sommerfeld effect. Both, the significant uncertainties in the design and a validation of absence of unforeseen adverse dynamic phenomena necessitate the employment of measurement Systems on the support structures. The quality of the measurements of the cyclic demand on the support structures depends on (a) the precision of the measurement System consisting of sensors, amplifier and data normalization and (b) algorithms for analyzing and converting data to structural health information. This paper presents the probabilistic modelling and analysis of uncertainties in strain measurements performed for the purposes of reconstructing stress resultants in wind turbine towers.
It is shown how the uncertainties in the strain measurements affect the uncertainty in the individual components of the reconstructed forces and moments. The analysis identifies the components of the vector of stress resultants that can be reconstructed with sufficient precision.
The Influence of brittle Daniels system characteristics on the value of load monitoring information
(2016)
This paper addresses the influence of deteriorating brittle Daniels system characteristics on the value of structural health monitoring (SHM). The value of SHM is quantified as the difference between the life cycle benefits with and without SHM. A value of SHM analysis is performed within the framework of the Bayesian pre-posterior decision theory and requires (1) structural performance modelling and prediction, (2) structural integrity management models, (3) the (pre-posterior) modelling of SHM and (4) the coupling of SHM and the structural performance models. The pre-posterior decision theoretical framework facilitates that the value of SHM can be quantified before the SHM system is quantified and before data are acquired. The results of this study support decisions to select structural systems for which the SHM strategy load monitoring is optimal.
A novel method for risk-based optimization of inspection and repair strategies for deteriorating structural systems has recently been proposed. The method defines heuristics at the system level to reduce the number of possible strategies. For each defined strategy, it computes the updated system failure probability conditional on simulated inspection and repair histories, and evaluates the associated costs and risk. The expected total service life costs and risk for a strategy are finally determined using Monte Carlo simulation. The optimal strategy minimizes the expected total service life costs and risk. We intend to adopt this approach to optimize inspection, monitoring and repair activities for offshore wind park support structures. As a first step, we simulate – in analogy to an offshore wind park – the service life performance of an inspected group of jacket-type frames. The performance is quantified in terms of the group’s system failure probability conditional on simulated inspection and repair histories. The underlying system model accounts for the structural redundancy of the frames and the interdependence among their failure events due to similar loading conditions. The model also captures stochastic dependence among the deterioration states of the frames. As part of the simulation process the a-priori unknown outcome of any planned inspection is generated conditional on the outcome of all previous inspections.
The levelized cost of energy (LCoE) is an important measure to quantify the macro-economic efficiency of an offshore wind farm and to enable a quantitative comparison with other types of energy production. The costs of the structural integrity management - which is required to ensure an adequate lifetime reliability of the turbine support structures - are part of the operational expenditures of an offshore wind farm. An optimization of the structural integrity management may reduce the operational expenditures and consequently the LCoE. However, the effect of the structural integrity management on the LCoE is hardly known. To investigate this effect, this paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the LCoE of a generic offshore wind farm. The probabilistic models of the parameters influencing the LCoE are based on a literature study including an explicit model for the structural integrity management.
The analysis reveals that LCoE may potentially be reduced if an optimization of the structural integrity management enables a service life extension.