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Inspections are an efficient means of enhancing the reliability of redundant structural Systems subjected to fatigue. To investigate the effect of such inspections, we represent the deterioration state of a Daniels System by means of a probabilistic fatigue crack growth model of all elements, which considers stochastic dependence among element fatigue behavior. We include inspection results in the calculation of the System collapse probability through Bayesian updating of the System deterioration state. Based on this approach, we calculate the collapse probability of a deteriorating Daniels System conditional on different inspection strategies in terms of inspection coverage and inspection times. The acceptability of an inspection strategy is verified by comparing the calculated collapse probabilities with maximum acceptable System failure probabilities. This study is a Step towards identifying optimal inspection strategies for redundant structural Systems subjected to fatigue.
Effect of different inspection strategies on the reliability of Daniels systems subjected to fatigue
(2013)
Updating of fatigue reliability with inspection data using subset simulation - problems encountered
(2013)
In this contribution, we consider two applications in which probabilistic approaches can potentially complement or enhance the design and assessment of offshore wind turbine foundations. First, we illustrate in a numerical example that probabilistic modelling can be helpful in dealing with chang-es in turbine locations during the planning phase of an offshore wind farm. In this case, spatial probabilistic modelling of the ground conditions enables (a) an inference of the soil properties at the modified turbine location from field data collected at different locations across an offshore wind farm site and (b) an optimisation of further site investigations. Second, we discuss the uncer-tainties and risks associated with the installation of large diameter monopiles in soils with hetero-geneities such as strong layers and/or embedded boulders. Subsequently, we present a concept for modelling, understanding, and managing these risks based on a probabilistic model of the subgrade conditions, monopile, and subgrade-pile-interaction.
Gradual or sudden changes in the state of structural systems caused, for example, by deterioration or accidental load events can influence their load-bearing capacity. Structural changes can be inferred from static and/or dynamic response data measured by structural health monitoring systems. However, they may be masked by variations in the structural response due to varying environmental conditions. Particularly, the interaction of nominally load-bearing components with nominally non-load bearing components exhibiting characteristics that vary as a function of the environmental conditions can significantly affect the monitored structural response. Ignoring these effects may hamper an inference of structural changes from the monitoring data. To address this issue, we adopt a probabilistic model-based framework as a basis for developing digital twins of structural systems that enable a prediction of the structural behavior under varying ambient condition. Within this framework, different types of data obtained from real the structural system can be applied to update the digital twin of the structural system using Bayesian methods and thus enhance predictions of the structural behavior. In this contribution, we implement the framework to develop a digital twin of a simply supported steel beam with an asphalt layer. It is formulated such that it can predict the static response of the beam in function of its temperature. In a climate chamber, the beam was subject to varying temperatures and its static response wass monitored. In addition, tests are performed to determine the temperature-dependent properties of the asphalt material. Bayesian system identification is applied to enhance the predictive capabilities of the digital twin based on the observed data.
In this presentation, we discuss the potential of probabilistic approaches to the design and assessment of offshore foundations. The potential is demonstrated in a numerical example considering a laterally loaded monopile. As an outlook, we present a concept for managing the risk associated with installing large monopiles.