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A hybrid deterministic-probabilistic framework is presented that combines in-situ measurements and numerical analysis to predict the characteristic size of corrosion pits over extended periods of exposure to seawater. A probabilistic model, informed by corrosion current density and temperature data, applies a sampling method to a range of overpotential values to reflect the surface deterioration in terms of pitting. The model is calibrated and validated with pit size data obtained from corroded coupons. Results reveal a positively skewed truncated lognormal distribution of pit depths which implies a higher prevalence of smaller pit depths, corroborated both experimentally and numerically.
The offshore environment is inherently corrosive. Consequently, pits may nucleate on exposed steel surfaces. Corrosion pits can be a source of crack initiation when the structure is subject to fatigue loading. The criticality of a corrosion pit with respect to the structural integrity depends on its shape and size and can be quantified using a stress concentration factor (𝐾𝑡). In this work, a parametric 3D finite element model is developed to perform stress analysis of a pitted plate subjected to uniaxial tensile stress. The model is used for an extensive parameter study in which 𝐾𝑡 is determined for various pit configurations. It is demonstrated that each one of the geometrical parameters holds a substantial influence on the location of the Most Critical Region (MCR). It is shown that 𝐾𝑡 increases as the pit gets narrower. Pits with an elliptical mouth yield higher 𝐾𝑡 values when the angle between the load direction and the pit mouth major axis increases. Moreover, 𝐾𝑡 increases with the increase in the localized thickness loss which is more pronounced for relatively wider pits. Finally, a regression model is presented for estimating 𝐾𝑡 based on the geometric parameters of a pit.