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Numerical models built as virtual-twins of a real structure (digital-twins) are considered the future ofmonitoring systems. Their setup requires the estimation of unknown parameters, which are not directly measurable. Stochastic model identification is then essential, which can be computationally costly and even unfeasible when it comes to real applications. Efficient surrogate models, such as reduced-order method, can be used to overcome this limitation and provide real time model identification. Since their numerical accuracy influences the identification process, the optimal surrogate not only has to be computationally efficient, but also accurate with respect to the identified parameters. This work aims at automatically controlling the Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD) surrogate’s numerical accuracy for parameter identification. For this purpose, a sequence of Bayesian model identification problems, in which the surrogate’s accuracy is iteratively increased, is solved with a variational Bayesian inference procedure. The effect of the numerical accuracy on the resulting posteriors probability density functions is analyzed through two metrics, the Bayes Factor (BF) and a criterion based on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. The approach is demonstrated by a simple test example and by two structural problems. The latter aims to identify spatially distributed damage, modeled with a PGD surrogate extended for log-normal random fields, in two different structures: a truss with synthetic data and a small, reinforced bridge with real measurement data. For all examples, the evolution of the KL-based and BF criteria for increased accuracy is shown and their convergence indicates when model refinement no longer affects the identification results.
Using digital twins for decision making is a very promising concept which combines simulation models with corresponding experimental sensor data in order to support maintenance decisions or to investigate the reliability. The quality of the prognosis strongly depends on both the data quality and the quality of the digital twin. The latter comprises both the modeling assumptions as well as the correct parameters of these models. This article discusses the challenges when applying this concept to realmeasurement data for a demonstrator bridge in the lab, including the data management, the iterative development of the simulation model as well as the identification/updating procedure using Bayesian inference with a potentially large number of parameters. The investigated scenarios include both the iterative identification of the structural model parameters as well as scenarios related to a damage identification. In addition, the article aims at providing all models and data in a reproducibleway such that other researcher can use this setup to validate their methodologies.
Multiscale modeling of linear elastic heterogeneous structures via localized model order reduction
(2023)
In this paper, a methodology for fine scale modeling of large scale linear elastic structures is proposed, which combines the variational multiscale method, domain decomposition and model order reduction. The influence of the fine scale on the coarse scale is modelled by the use of an additive split of the displacement field, addressing applications without a clear scale separation. Local reduced spaces are constructed by solving an oversampling problem with random boundary conditions. Herein, we inform the boundary conditions by a global reduced problem and compare our approach using physically meaningful correlated samples with existing approaches using uncorrelated samples. The local spaces are designed such that the local contribution of each subdomain can be coupled in a conforming way, which also preserves the sparsity pattern of standard finite element assembly procedures. Several numerical experiments show the accuracy and efficiency of the method, as well as its potential to reduce the size of the local spaces and the number of training samples compared to the uncorrelated sampling.