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Eingeladener Vortrag
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Estimation of the POD function and the LOD of a qualitative microbiological measurement method
(2009)
Qualitative microbiological measurement methods in which the measurement results are either 0 (microorganism not detected) or 1 (microorganism detected) are discussed. The performance of such a measurement method is described by its probability of detection as a function of the contamination (CFU/g or CFU/mL) of the test material, or by the LODp, i.e., the contamination that is detected (measurement result 1) with a specified probability p. A complementary log-log model was used to statistically estimate these performance characteristics. An intralaboratory experiment for the detection of Listeria monocytogenes in various food matrixes illustrates the method. The estimate of LOD50% is compared with the Spearman-Kaerber method.
Aims: The purpose of this work was to derive a simple Excel spreadsheet and a set of standard tables of most probable number (MPN) values that can be applied by users of International Standard Methods to obtain the same output values for MPN, SD of the MPN, 95% confidence limits and test validity. With respect to the latter, it is considered that the Blodgett concept of 'rarity' is more valuable than the frequently used approach of improbability (vide de Man).
Methods and Results: The paper describes the statistical procedures used in the work and the reasons for introducing a new set of conceptual and practical approaches to the determination of MPNs and their parameters. Examples of MPNs derived using these procedures are provided. The Excel spreadsheet can be downloaded from http://www.wiwiss.fu-berlin.de/institute/iso/mitarbeiter/wilrich/index.html.
Conclusions: The application of the revised approach to the determination of MPN parameters permits those who wish to use tabulated values, and those who require access to a simple spreadsheet to determine values for nonstandard test protocols, to obtain the same output values for any specific set of multiple test results. The concept of 'rarity' is a more easily understood parameter to describe test result combinations that are not statistically valid. Provision of the SD of the log MPN value permits derivation of uncertainty parameters that have not previously been possible.
Significance and Impact of the Study: A consistent approach for the derivation of MPNs and their parameters is essential for coherence between International Standard Methods. It is intended that future microbiology standard methods will be based on the procedures described in this paper.
Background: We deal with interlaboratory experiments (collaborative studies) in which k participating laboratories, selected randomly from a population of laboratories, use samples from one and the same material or matrix. They perform binary microbiological measurements for which the measurement results are either “0” (target microorganisms not detected) or “1” (target microorganisms detected). The performance of such a measurement method is described by its probability of detection (POD) function, i.e., the POD as a function of the contamination of the sample (CFU per gram or CFU per milliliter), or by the level of detection (LODp), i.e., the contamination level of the sample that is detected (measurement result “1”) with a specified probability p. Objective: We derive an approximate statistical analysis that is simple enough to be implemented in a spreadsheet application.
Methods: Under the assumption of a Poisson distribution of the number of CFU in the samples, we estimate the mean POD function of the laboratories and the SD of the laboratory effect based on a complementary log-log model, a special case of the Generalized Linear Model in the special situation in which the contamination level is known by means other than the POD. The estimates are obtained by maximization of the Laplace approximation of the likelihood function. By simulation, a bias correction factor for the estimate of the SD is obtained. With the estimated POD function, LODs can be estimated. The model can also be used to evaluate the relative LOD of an alternative method with repect to a reference method.
Results: The EXCEL program PODLOD-interlab_ver1.xls for this method of statistical analysis can be downloaded from http://www.wiwiss.fu-berlin.de/fachbereich/vwl/iso/ehemalige/wilrich.
Highlights: A simple approximate statistical method for the estimation of the POD and LOD is derived. The method also allows the estimation of the RLOD of an alternative Microbiological Methods Received December 11, 2018. Accepted by AH April 5, 2019. Estimation of the POD Function and the LOD of a Binary Microbiological Measurement Method from an Interlaboratory Experiment Basil Jarvis, Ross Biosciences Ltd, Upton Bishop, Ross-on-Wye HR9 7UR, United Kingdom; Cordula Wilrich, Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung, Unter den Eichen 87, D-12205 Berlin, Germany; Peter-Theodor Wilrich, Freie Universität Berlin, Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie, Garystrasse 21, D-14195 Berlin, Germany.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5740/jaoacint.18-0412
method with respect to reference method. The method is implemented in an EXCEL program that can be downloaded from http://www.wiwiss.fu-berlin.de/fachbereich/vwl/iso/ehemalige/wilrich.
GHS - Physical Hazards
(2006)
In connection with the use of chemically unstable gases (especially acetylene and ethylene oxide) accidents keep on happening - amongst them also quite serious ones. These gases are known to be chemically unstable. A chemically unstable sas is a flammable gas that is able to react exolosivelv even in the absence of air or oxveen. The investigation of accidents showed that the Chemical instability of flammable gases played an important role in the severity of accidents. Therefore, this hazardous property was included in the global harmonizatiön of the Classification of Chemicals. The Classification of chemically unstable flammable gases and mixtures is an amendment to Chapter 2.2 “Flammable gases” of the UN Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals (GHS), because most chemically unstable gases are flammable as well. The proposal to add them to the GHS originated from the experts of an informal working group of the UN Sub-Committee of Expert on the GHS (UNSCEGHS) headed by BAM, Germany. The UNSCEGHS has decided to include it in the Fourth Revised Edition of the GHS. The respective method for determining whether a gas is chemically unstable or not, is included in the UN Manual of Tests and Criteria. This paper presents some experimental investigations of these gases, the test methods, examples of new classifications and results from CHEMSAFE
Acetylene Cylinders
(2007)
The Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals (UN-GHS) is being implemented in more and more countries all over the world; the EU has done so with the CLP-Regulation (EU-CLP). Compared to the undeniably important questions on health and environmental hazards, the classification of physical hazards of chemicals often has not been in the focus, although their implementation can be challenging and there are traps and pitfalls to be avoided. The following overview of the classification systematics for physical hazards aims at a principle understanding without detailing all criteria or test methods. Similarities and differences between the classification systems of the UN-GHS and EU-CLP, the transport of dangerous goods and the former EU system are reviewed with regard to the physical hazard classes. Available physical hazard classifications for the transport of dangerous goods and according to the former EU system can be used as available information when classifying according to the GHS. However, the interfaces of these classification systems and their limitations have to be understood well when concluding on GHS/CLP classifications. This applies not only to industry when applying CLP but especially to legislators when adapting legislation that in one way or another refers to the classification of chemicals.
One of the fundamental principles of the UN-GHS (Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals) is that all hazards of a chemical should be assigned and communicated. There is no general prioritization of hazards in the sense that certain hazard classes are not applicable if another one has been assigned. In contrast to health and environmental hazards, there are physical or chemical factors which preclude certain combinations of physical hazard classes. So far, there is no common understanding as to which combinations are relevant and which not. For example, should a pyrophoric liquid be classified as flammable liquid in addition, or is this redundant and unnecessary? In the course of the implementation of the GHS by countries or sectors and the actual application by industry all over the world, such questions become more and more important. For many of the combinations an unambiguous decision based on theGHS alone is not possible, thus confirming that the question which physical hazard classes might be assigned simultaneously to a chemical is not trivial. As one more milestone on the path to a globally harmonized system for the classification of hazardous chemicals, this should be discussed and ultimately solved on a global basis. It is the hope that this presentaion might serve as an impetus for such discussions.
One of the fundamental principles of the UN-GHS (Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals) is that all hazards of a chemical should be assigned and communicated. There is no general prioritization of hazards in the sense that certain hazard classes are not applicable if another one has been assigned. In contrast to health and environmental hazards, there are physical or chemical factors which preclude certain combinations of physical hazard classes. So far, there is no common understanding as to which combinations are relevant and which not. For example, should a pyrophoric liquid be classified as flammable liquid in addition, or is this redundant and unnecessary? In the course of the implementation of the GHS by countries or sectors and the actual application by industry all over the world, such questions become more and more important.
This publication systematically discusses all combinations of the UN-GHS physical hazard classes and assesses them with regard to the relevance of possible simultaneous assignment to a chemical. For many of the combinations an unambiguous decision based on theGHS alone is not possible, thus confirming that the question which physical hazard classes might be assigned simultaneously to a chemical is not trivial. As one more milestone on the path to a globally harmonized system for the classification of hazardous chemicals, this should be discussed and ultimately solved on a global basis. It is the hope that this publication might serve as an impetus for such discussions.
"Ullmann's Encyclopedia of Industrial Chemistry" is the benchmark reference in chemistry and chemical and life science engineering, covering inorganic and organic chemicals, advanced materials, pharmaceuticals, polymers and plastics, metals and alloys, biotechnology and biotechnological products, food chemistry, process engineering and unit operations, analytical methods, environmental protection, and much more.
The present article is part of the topic collection "Environmental Protection and Industrial Safety". It covers plant and process safety, focusing on hazardous materials and process conditions.