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Since the beginnings of the European American Workshops (EAW) in 1997, the aim was to gather the experts in NDE reliability and discuss burning topics with the aim of identifying crucial problems and suggesting ways to move forward. This was usually achieved during the so-called break-out sessions, in which predetermined topics were discussed. During the 5th EAW, held in Berlin in 2013, this approach was replaced by an Open Space Technology (OST) approach. The benefit of this approach is seen in the freedom of topic choices, i. e., the topics are not predetermined but rather arise at that moment in that space and by the participants choice. The following topics arose: new reliability methods (Bayesian, MAPOD,
), structural health monitoring, definition of requirements of NDE by customer versus provider, what value of POD is good enough?, human factors, manual versus automated inspection, and basic concepts of reliability of NDE. The participants were encouraged to walk from one session to another and openly express their opinions. These were in the end summarized by a chosen group of moderators and presented in this paper.
The paper will give an overview of new methodology for evaluating the
reliability of NDE systems accurately, reliably and efficiently in accordance with the
specific requirements of industrial application. After a review of the substantive
issues from the previous workshops, the go forward guidance from these
interactions is considered.
At the beginning of the reliability analysis, the actual safety demands have to
be defined in order to fit the investigation to the level of risk when the component
would fail. Next, all the essential influencing parameters need to be documented and
transferred to an appropriate design of experiments (DOE) to determine the
reliability in terms of a qualitative assessment for lower risk or in terms of a
quantitative probability of detection (POD) or ROC (Receiver Operating
Characteristics) curves for higher safety demands. A new paradigm is offered to
consider the POD or reliability of the system as a function of the configuration of
input variables and use it for optimisation rather than for a final judgement. An
advantage for the end user is also to sample all single PODs to an integral 'Volume
POD' of a part.
Among the influencing parameters, the human factor is the most important one.
A systematic psychological approach shall help to find out where the bottlenecks are
but most importantly to provide best possible working conditions for the human
inspectors.
Das Ziel des Artikels ist es eine Übersicht über neue methodische Ansätze und Verfahren zur Bewertung der Zuverlässigkeit von ZfP-Systemen in Übereinstimmung mit den spezifischen Anforderungen verschiedener industrieller Anwendungen zu geben. Nach einem Überblick über die in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten erreichten Fortschritte, wird der Fokus auf die gegenwärtigen Entwicklungen gerichtet. Für hohe Sicherheitsanforderungen wurde die quantitative Fehlerauffindwahrscheinlichkeit (probability of detection, POD) basierend auf 'hit/miss'- oder 'Signal-Response'-Analysen und die ROC-Analyse (Receiver Operating Characteristics) als typische Werkzeuge entwickelt. Im Rahmen des modularen Modells für die ZfP-Zuverlässigkeit unterscheidet man zwischen den rein physikalisch-technischen Einflussfaktoren, den industriellen Anwendungsfaktoren und den menschlichen Faktoren. Es hilft zum Beispiel zu erkennen, welche dieser Faktoren man in Modellierungsrechnungen bzw. mittels offenen oder Blindversuchen untersuchen kann. Ein neues Paradigma wird für die Betrachtung der POD als eine Funktion der gewählten Systemparameter und somit als Optimierungswerkzeug verwendet, anstelle sie für die endgültige Beurteilung zu nehmen. Zur Handhabung der Zuverlässigkeitsuntersuchung von realen Defekten in einer realistischen Umgebung werden ökonomisch vertretbare, aber dennoch präzise genug arbeitende Methoden, wie der Ansatz von Bayes oder modellbasierte Methoden vorgestellt. Die menschlichen Faktoren sind oft von ausschlaggebender Wichtigkeit für die Gesamtzuverlässigkeit. Hier hilft ein systematischer psychologischer Ansatz die Engpässe und Verbesserungsmöglichkeiten zu finden.
New methodologies for evaluating the reliability of NDE systems are discussed in accordance with the specific
requirements of industrial application. After a review of the substantive issues from the previous decades, the go
forward guidance is concluded.
For high safety demands a quantitative probability of detection (POD) created from hit miss
experiments or signal response analysis and ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) are typically created. The
modular model distinguishes between the influence of pure physics and technique, industrial application factors
and the human factor and helps to learn what factors are covered by modelling, open or blind trials. A new
paradigm is offered to consider the POD or reliability of the system as a function of the configuration of input
variables and use it for optimisation rather than for a final judgement. New approaches are considered dealing
with real defects in a realistic environment, affordable but precisely like the Bayesian approach or model assisted
methods.
Among the influencing parameters, the human factor is of high importance. A systematic psychological
approach helps to find out where the bottlenecks are and shows possibilities for improvement.
The paper will give an overview of new methodology for evaluating the
reliability of NDE systems accurately, reliably and efficiently in accordance with the
specific requirements of industrial application. After a review of the substantive
issues from the previous workshops, the go forward guidance from these
interactions is considered.
At the beginning of the reliability analysis, the actual safety demands have to
be defined in order to fit the investigation to the level of risk when the component
would fail. Next, all the essential influencing parameters need to be documented and
transferred to an appropriate design of experiments (DOE) to determine the
reliability in terms of a qualitative assessment for lower risk or in terms of a
quantitative probability of detection (POD) or ROC (Receiver Operating
Characteristics) curves for higher safety demands. A new paradigm is offered to
consider the POD or reliability of the system as a function of the configuration of
input variables and use it for optimisation rather than for a final judgement. An
advantage for the end user is also to sample all single PODs to an integral 'Volume
POD' of a part.
Among the influencing parameters, the human factor is the most important one.
A systematic psychological approach shall help to find out where the bottlenecks are
but most importantly to provide best possible working conditions for the human
inspectors.
This report describes the progress in understanding and describing the detectability of the ultrasonic inspection technique developed by SKB for the inspection of copper tubes used for the final disposal of the Swedish spent nuclear fuel. In former research activities dedicated to the different parts of the canister, the probability of detection (POD) evaluation technique, as developed for thin aircraft components, was further developed for the application on complex hick-walled components. The result of this development was the introduction of a “multi-parameter” POD framework. In contrast to taking only the defect size into consideration (as for aircraft components) additional influencing factors, relevant for thick components, such as depth position, orientation and part geometry, were included. Furthermore, the variation of ultrasonic attenuation due to various material properties was included.
Selbst die modernsten ZfP-Systeme können, wenn sie bis an die Grenzen ihrer Möglichkeiten z. B. kleine Fehler zu finden beansprucht werden, nicht alle Fehler der gleichen Größe finden. Sogar wenn ein und derselbe Fehler mehrmals geprüft wird, wird er nicht immer gefunden. Deshalb wurde, besonders für solche Anwendungsfälle wo das Übersehen eines Fehlers zu schwerwiegenden Konsequenzen führt, das Konzept der Zuverlässigkeit der ZfP eingeführt. Das Konzept der BAM beinhaltet eine ganzheitliche Betrachtungsweise mittels eines modularen Models. Die Hauptmodule des Modells sind die innewohnende Fähigkeit, die die physikalisch technischen Aspekte behandelt. Weiterhin werden die Einflüsse der Umgebung betrachtet, die den Prüfprozess stören, aber nicht zum Prüfsystem selbst gehören. Einen wesentlichen Aspekt, sowohl bei manuellen als auch bei mechanisierten Prüfungen stellt der menschliche Faktor dar. Die Betrachtungen im vorliegenden Artikel beziehen sich hauptsächlich auf die innewohnende Fähigkeit.
Wegen der dem Prüfprozess innewohnenden Unsicherheit wird die Leistungsfähigkeit eines ZfP-Systems durch eine Funktion POD (a) ausgedrückt. Zu verschiedenen Fehlergrößen (a) gehören verschiedene Fehlerauffindwahrscheinlichkeiten (POD). Die Fehlergröße (a), bei der die untere 95 % Vertrauensgrenze das Niveau von 90 % POD schneidet wird α90/95 genannt. Dieser Punkt wird als Maß für das Leistungsvermögen der ZfP-Methode benutzt.
Während der letzten 10-20 Jahre wurden auf diese Weise verschiedene Inspektionssysteme für eine gewählte ZfP-Methode mit einer einfachen Anwendungsgeometrie bewertet.
Wenn man über diese einfachen Anwendungssituationen hinaus, die Zuverlässigkeit in realen industriellen Prozessen betrachtet, treten als erstes industrielle Bauteile mit komplexer Geometrie und Defekte, die mit mehr als nur einem Parameter (Größe und Tiefe, Orientierung, Oberflächenrauhigkeit) charakterisiert werden müssen, auf die Tagesordnung. Neue hochentwickelte und automatisierte ZfP-Systeme, wie z. B. Ultraschallgruppenstrahler, lassen die Möglichkeit zu die Prüfungen digital aufzuzeichnen und später erst auszuwerten. Weiterhin erlauben es moderne Modellierungswerkzeuge den ZfP-Prozess zu simulieren und damit die Einflüsse der Wellenausbreitung und deren Wechselwirkung mit Defekten sowie die Wirkung der zusätzlichen Einflussparameter (z. B. Abstand vom Prüfkopf oder Orientierung) auf die POD zu untersuchen. Damit entsteht die Möglichkeit die räumliche Verteilung der POD im Prüfstück zu ermitteln die Volumen-POD. Die Volumen-POD kann ebenso wie die konventionelle POD als Maß für die Leistungsfähigkeit des ZfP-Systems benutzt werden. Darüber hinaus kann man das ZfP-System optimieren. Wenn z. B. bestimmte Volumenelemente nur ungenügende POD-Werte aufweisen, müssen zusätzliche Prüfungen einbezogen werden. Aber auch der umgekehrte Fall, Bereiche in denen mehrere Prüfköpfe ein POD Niveau von 100 % haben und die Zahl der Prüfungen reduziert werden kann, werden mit der Volumen-POD erkannt.
Es werden die Fortschritte bei der Bewertung der Zuverlässigkeit von ZfP-Systemen in den vergangenen 10 Jahren vorgestellt. Der modulare Ansatz bzw. die systematische Auflistung aller wesentlichen Einflussfaktoren stehen am Anfang jeder Bewertung, die jeweils spezifisch für einen industriellen bzw. Feldeinsatz angelegt wird. Weiterhin legt die zu Grunde liegende Sicherheitsanforderung fest, ob ein exaktes quantitatives statistisches Ergebnis z. B. für die Fehlergröße, die mit hoher Sicherheit detektiert wird angestrebt wird oder ob man sich mit einer qualitativen Abschätzung zufrieden geben kann. Moderne Werkzeuge wie das 'Design of Experiments' (Statistische Versuchsplanung), die Volumen-POD für ein Bauteil als ganzes oder auch die systematische psychologische Betrachtung des menschlichen Faktors unterstützen die Treffsicherheit der Untersuchung für den gewünschten Einsatzfall. Die Ergebnisse der ZfP-Prüfungen können immer nur so gut sein, wie der Mensch mit den Bedingungen zurechtkommt. Weiterhin kann die POD im Zusammenhang mit den Prozessparametern als helfendes Optimierungswerkzeug eingesetzt werden und nicht als endgültige Be(Ver)urteilung. Es werden Beispiele aus Bereichen der Energieerzeugung und Endlagerung präsentiert.
Im Zuge der Anwendung des Schadens-Toleranz-Prinzips wird ein adäquates zerstörungsfreies Prüfsystem benötigt um strukturelle Integrität sicher zu stellen. Wenn ein zerstörungsfreies Prüfsystem jedoch bis zu den Grenzen der Detektionsfähigkeit beansprucht wird, liefert es keine übereinstimmende Indikationen der Defektentdeckung (Hit/Miss). Deshalb wird dessen Fähigkeit Defekte zu entdecken als Entdeckungswahrscheinlichkeit (POD Probability of Detection) ausgedrückt. In der herkömmlichen 'Signal Response' Signal-Antwort-Zuverlässigkeitsanalyse wird die Entdeckungswahrscheinlichkeit als eine Funktion der Defektgröße angegeben. Die Eignung des Prüfsystems wird durch den Vergleich der Größe des Defektes, der zuverlässig entdeckt wird, mit der des größten zulässigen Defektes, der die strukturelle Integrität nicht gefährdet, verifiziert. Analysen moderner Strukturen zeigen aber, dass auch andere Parameter den Schweregrad des Defektes bzgl. der Integrität der Struktur bestimmen können. Im Rahmen der Multi-Parameter-Zuverlässigkeitsanalyse kann die Entdeckungswahrscheinlichkeit als eine Funktion verschiedener Einflussparameter ausgedrückt werden. Wenn die Eignung des zerstörungsfreien Prüfsystems bestimmt wird, muss die Fähigkeit des Systems Defekte zu entdecken gegenüber dem kritischen Wert genau des Parameters ausgedrückt und geprüft werden, der den Schweregrad des Defektes für die Integrität der Struktur bestimmt. Die Nichterfüllung dieser Forderung kann zur Ablehnung von intakten Teilen oder der Akzeptanz von schlechten Teilen führen. Das Prinzip wird anhand von longitudinalen Ultraschall-Sende-Empfangs-Prüfdaten der Gußeisenmatrix mit oberflächenoffenen, semi-elliptischen, rißartigen Defekten demonstriert.
Reliability analysis of the ultrasonic inspection system for the inspection of hollow railway axles
(2016)
Axles are safety critical train components that are subjected to significant cyclic loading during operation. If the crack is initiated in the axle, cyclic loading will lead to crack propagation. To maintain structural integrity, axles must be periodically inspected for fatigue cracks in the material. Deutsche Bahn uses mechanized ultrasonic inspection system to inspect hollow railway axles. The inspections are performed from the bore surface, using several conventional transducers with different incident angles, inspecting the axle along the entire length. As with the every safety critical system, the reliability of these inspections must be determined with regard to their flaw detection capabilities. Traditionally this is done according to the relevant standards for railway vehicles. To investigate the capability of the NDT system more thoroughly, we want to evaluate the capability of the inspection system to detect flaws by means of probability of detection (POD) curves. It will be shown that other parameters, beside the size of the crack, for example crack position in the axle, influence the detection of the crack. The influence of these parameters was evaluated using ultrasonic simulation. The evaluation served as an input for the manufacturing of the flaws in the real scale axle. Once these axles are inspected and the data evaluated, using data from both measurement and simulation, we will express the POD of the crack as function of influencing parameters using the multiparameter POD model.
The canister for the permanent storage of spent nuclear fuel used by SKB in Sweden consists of a cast iron insert surrounded by a five centimetre thick shell of copper. It is a safety critical component and in order to secure long-term structural integrity non-destructive methods are used to inspect 100% of the volume of each canister, before it is disposed of in the repository. One of the critical components that requires inspection is a sealing weld, joining the copper tube and the lid. The friction stir weld is inspected using an ultrasonic phased array system. The area of the weld is inspected with several inspection channels with different angles and varying coverage. To make sure that no defects that might occur in the weld are overseen, the reliability of the inspection must be quantified. The reliability of NDT is usually quantified with the probability of detection curves. The influence of the parameters that might influence the POD of the flaws in the weld is investigated analysing the experimental results, as well as with a help of a numerical simulation of the inspection.
When pushed to the limits of their detection capability, NDE systems do not produce consistent hit/miss
indications. Their capability of detecting small defects is therefore expressed in terms of POD. An adequate
NDE system is required to ensure the structural integrity. In conventional signal response analysis, the POD is
expressed as a function of the defect size, and its adequacy for the inspection task is tested against the maximum
allowable defect size which will not undermine the structural integrity. Analyses of modern structures show that
other parameters, beside the defect size, can both significantly influence the POD and determine the severity of
the defect for the structure. Within the multi-parameter reliability analysis, the POD is expressed as a function of
those influencing parameters. When determining the adequacy of the NDE system, the capability of detecting a
defect has to be expressed and tested against the critical value of exactly that parameter that determines defects
severity for the structure. Failing to do so can lead to a rejection of the healthy, or acceptance of the bad part.
The principle is demonstrated on the example of the Transmit-Receive Longitudinal (TRL) ultrasonic inspection
of the iron cast component for semi-elliptical surface defects.
This report describes the methodology of the reliability investigation performed on the ultrasonic
phased array NDT system, developed by SKB in collaboration with Posiva, for inspection of the
canisters for permanent storage of nuclear spent fuel.
The canister is composed of a cast iron insert surrounded by a copper shell. The shell is composed
of the tube and the lid/base which are welded to the tube after the fuel has been place, in the
tube. The manufacturing process of the canister parts and the welding process are described.
Possible defects, which might arise in the canister components during the manufacturing
or in the weld during the welding, are indentified.
The number of real defects in manufactured components have been limited. Therefore the reliability
of the NDT system has been determined using a number of test objects with artifical defects.
The reliability analysis is based on the signal response analysis. The conventional signal response
analysis is adopted and further developed before applied on the modern ultrasonic phased-array
NDT system. The concept of multi-parameter a, where the response of the NDT system is dependent
on more than just one parameter, is introduced. The weakness of use of the peak signal response
in the analysis is demonstrated and integration of the amplitudes in the C-scan is proposed as an
alternative. The calculation of the volume POD, when the part is inspected with more configurations,
is also presented. The reliability analysis is supported by the ultrasonic simulation based on the
point source synthesis method.
It is not always only the size of the flaw that determines the severity of the flaw for the structure. In such cases, it is important to express the capability of the non-destructive testing (NDT) system to detect a flaw with respect to exactly those parameters that determine flaw severity. The multi-parameter reliability model presented in this article shows a way of calculating and expressing the probability of detection (POD) as a function of different influencing parameters, using numerically simulated NDT system responses and experimentally measured responses. A successful application of the model is demonstrated on the data from a transmit-receive longitudinal (TRL) ultrasonic inspection of a cast iron component. The POD of the surface-breaking semi-elliptical crack-like flaw is expressed as a function of its depth and length. In a direct comparison with the conventional signal response analysis, where the POD is expressed as a function of only the flaw size, the method provides a more comprehensive estimation of the reliability of the NDT system.
The General Guidance in the Swedish regulations state that the safety assessment for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel should be 1 million years after closure. SKB developed the KBS-3 method, according to which the spent nuclear fuel is protected by three barriers. It is encapsulated in canisters with a diameter of 1 metre and a length of 5 metres. The canister consists of a cast iron insert surrounded by a 5 centimetre thick shell of copper. The canisters are disposed in the bedrock at a depth of about 500 meters surrounded by bentonite clay. In order to assess the safety over this extremely long period, an extensive quality control programme is applied to the canisters before deposit. In this programme, the use of
non-destructive testing (NDT) is vital. The safety assessment of the canister in turn places high demands on the coverage, detectability, and reliability of the applied NDT inspections of the canister parts, i.e. cast iron insert, copper base, tube and lid, and the copper friction stir welds (FSW). This paper presents the extensive full-scale inspection development programme that runs at the Canister Laboratory in Oskarshamn (Sweden). In order to fulfil the high demands, phased array ultrasonic inspection techniques are developed using practical trials aided by ultrasonic modelling. The techniques apply, for example, different frequencies, inspection angles, focus depths, and both longitudinal and shear waves. Increased inspection reliability of the FSW is achieved by applying digital X-ray technique using a 9 MeV linear accelerator and a line detector. To complete the coverage, complementary surface inspections methods, i.e. eddy current array, magnetic flux sensor techniques and magnetic particle inspection, are applied. The canister safety assessment was the driving force to include reliability studies during the NDT development. Initially, the technical reliability was considered, resulting in development of advanced POD models (probability of detection). In combination with human factors studies, these models were implemented as tools in the development of the NDT techniques. Human factors studies were also applied to improve the inspection procedures to be more user-friendly enabling reliable inspections.
Ultrasonic phased array NDE has been applied to ensure the integrity of canisters for encapsulation of spent nuclear fuel. The performance of the NDE system is evaluated by the POD analysis. The POD analysis using a common method, â versus a, has been modified for the phased array ultrasonic inspections by two approaches: to take more influencing parameters into a, and to use a more sophisticated quantity as â. The POD with new a allows more detailed interpretation of POD for each parameter, and the new â gives more realistic POD. The methods are discussed and demonstrated with experimental data. In addition, an investigation of human factors is being planned and the plan is discussed.
Currently at Deutsche Bahn (DB) ultrasonic inspections in maintenance procedures for wheelset axles with a bore hole are, to the greatest possible extent, carried out using automated ultrasonic inspection system. Although the acceptance levels are in accordance with DIN 27201 part 7, the testing results have shown in recent years that in the case of true indications, the effective defect sizes were far below the level of acceptance. Due to this experience it can be assumed that the automated ultrasonic inspection systems are testing substantially more sensitively than required. This increased sensitivity leads to an increase in false indications, generally resulting in the unnecessary demounting of wheelsets. In Research cooperation between Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing (BAM) and DB the effective flaw detection sensitivity of existing automated ultrasonic inspection system will be determined and the true/false indication ratio optimised. Through systematic investigations with the Probability of Detection method on the existing automated ultrasonic inspection system the results could be directly applied to the optimisation of existing ultrasonic inspections of wheelset axles with a bore hole in maintenance procedures and the level of reliability can be considerably increased.