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Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics model Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and the microscopic evacuation model FDS+Evac. However, the high computational effort of complex models often limits the number of scenarios in practice. To balance this drawback, the scenarios are often simplified. Accordingly, there is a challenge to consider complex scenarios in risk analysis.
To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement on regions with high metamodel uncertainties; and the combination of two experimental designs for FDS and FDS+Evac.
To scrutinise the metamodel, we analysed the effects of three sequential refinement steps on the metamodel itself and on the results of risk analysis. We observed convergence in both after the second step (ten scenarios in FDS, 192 scenarios in FDS+Evac). In comparison to ISTSS 2016, we then ran 20 scenarios in FDS and 800 scenarios in FDS+Evac. Thus, we reduced the number of scenarios remarkably with the improved metamodel. In conclusion, we can now efficiently integrate complex scenarios in risk analysis. We further emphasise that the metamodel is broadly applicable on various experimental or modelling issues in fire safety engineering.
Brandlasten stellen eine Gefahr für den Menschen sowie für das industrielle Gebäude dar, in dem sie gelagert sind. Das Brandverhalten der Brandlasten bestimmt dabei maßgeblich die Schwere der Gefahr. Brandschutzmaßnahmen dienen dazu, im Brandfall das Schadensausmaß zu minimieren. Um geeignete Brandschutzmaßnahmen ableiten zu können, ist es erforderlich, das Brandverhalten der Materialien zu bewerten. Eine international angewandte Möglichkeit zur Bewertung des Brandverhaltens von Feststoffen und Flüssigkeiten ist die Verbrennungseffizienz χ. Sie ist das Verhältnis der während einer Verbrennung effektiv freigesetzten Wärme (effektive Verbrennungswärme) zu der maximal möglichen Wärmemenge (Heizwert). Die Grundlage zur Bestimmung von Verbrennungseffizienzen stellen die Wärmefreisetzungsrate (HRR) und die Massenverlustrate (MLR) dar. Ein standardisiertes Bestimmungsverfahren existiert nicht. So liegt es in dem Ermessen des Anwenders, in welcher Prüfapparatur die Experimente durchgeführt werden und welcher Zeitbereich der HRR und der MLR zur Berechnung der Verbrennungseffizienz verwendet wird. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden Versuche im Cone Calorimeter und im Single Burning Item test anhand von hölzernen Materialien durchgeführt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen auf, dass sich in Abhängigkeit von der verwendeten Prüfapparatur und in Abhängigkeit des für die Berechnung betrachten Versuchszeitraumes verschiedene Werte der Verbrennungseffizienz ergeben. Auf Grundlage dieser Erkenntnisse wurde eine Methode entwickelt, mit der reproduzierbare Werte berechnet werden können. Dabei erfolgt die Berechnung lediglich für die Vollbrandphase. Diese Brandphase stellt die Hauptbrandphase dar und ist durch eine gleichmäßige Verbrennung mit wenigen Änderungen in der Branddynamik gekennzeichnet.
Mittels Propan-Brennern mit einer Brennerleistung 750 kW wurden in einer U-Bahn-Station Heißgasversuche durchgeführt und die zeitlichen und örtlichen Verteilungen der physikalischen Größen (Stoffkonzentration, Temperatur und Rauchgasdichte) erfasst. Laborversuche sowie die Feldversuche sind Validierungsgrundlage für ANSYS CFX und FDS und die später im Rechenmodell der U-Bahn-Station zur Untersuchung der Grundströmung und Rauchausbreitung verwendeten mathematisch-physikalischen Modelle. Der Aufsatz stellt das Projekt ORPHEUS vor und diskutiert die ersten Ergebnisse.
In urban areas the demand for public transportation is constantly growing. Underground railway systems overcome the problem of limited space on the ground and are therefore one of the most powerful systems in urban public transportation. These facilities can be very complex and are used by a large amount of passengers. Therefore, it is important to maintain the safety for people and buildings. Especially in the case of fire or arson attack.
This paper focusses on a fire scenario in a complex subway station for different weather conditions. The purpose is to identify the influences of different weather conditions on the smoke spread and the ability of self-rescue in case of a burning luggage.
The evaluation of the fire simulations will focus on toxicity and visibility taking into account the FED concept.
A probabilistic approach for finite element analysis (FEA) for tunnel linings exposed to the nominal fire is presented. The probabilistic FEA accounted for the uncertainties distributions tied to the conductivity and specific heat as well as of the compressive strength, tensile strength, Young’s modulus, and ultimate strain in compression. To get an understanding on the influence of different probability density functions on the distribution of maximum displacements of the tunnel lining, a sensitivity analysis was performed. Four sets of FEAs were carried out with different probability distributions of the conductivity, the specific heat, and the compressive strength of the concrete, respectively. An experimental design based on a Latin Hypercube Sampling algorithm was performed to define the input parameters which describe each analysis case. A reliability analysis was executed considering a limit state function based on the temperature-dependent ultimate strain. The results show that, depending on the distribution adopted, the standard deviation of the maximum displacements can vary up to 47,4% of the minimum standard deviation. The large standard deviation is associated with the possibility of a greater displacement and, hence, to a structure more vulnerable to fire.
Probabilistic thermo-Mechanical analysis of a concrete tunnel lining subject to fire The probability distributions of the parameters related to the thermal analysis was considered in order to study the variability of the results and to carry out a reliability analysis. This assessment considered as random variables the thermo-mechanical properties of the concrete, the maximum heat release rate (HRR), the duration of the period of maximum HRR, the convective coefficient, the emissivity at the surface exposed to the fire, the air velocity within the tunnel, and the initial fire radius. The temperature-time curve was described by a correlation. An experimental design based on a Latin Hypercube Sampling algorithm was performed to define the input parameters to each analysis case. The definition of a limit state function based on the punctual strain status has permitted to carry out a reliability analysis.
The time dependent thermal behavior is analyzed with FLUENT for the fluid as well as the solid region (concrete component) in case of a 100 MW n-heptane fire. To study the effect of parameters in mathematical-physical models several sensitivity studies were carried out to investigate the effect on the fluid flow as well as on the component. The influence of soot was additionally considered. FDS simulations as well as empirical calculations considering underlying assumptions are additionally used to examine the plausibility of results from the FLUENT simulations. This is an appropriate method if no experimental results are available. Recommendations are given for choosing parameters in mathematical-physical models e.g. radiation models. The results of the CFD investigations show that considering the influence of soot provides maximum temperatures which were 200 K lower than without soot.
Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to Support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures.
The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following order: first, fire part (maximum heat release rate); second, evacuation part (maximum preevacuation time); and, third, frequency part (specific frequency of fire). The plausibility of These results is discussed with view to experiences from experimental studies and past fire incidents.
Conclusively, further research can focus on these most important risk indicators with the aim to optimise risk analysis.
Safety measures like tunnel emergency Ventilation Systems cause high financial costs. Hence, safety measures have to be chosen with the focus on the expected reduction of the consequences like fatalities or damage on structures and in conjunction with the investments. Since 2004, the European directive EU 2004/54/EC proposes therefore the application of risk assessments. Because the EU directive provides only few legal requirements on risk assessments, the methodologies developed on this basis have large differences. After one decade of intensive research, the comparative study now highlights common aspects and differences of several methodologies.
Fire smoke contains a variety of highly toxic substances and can lead to unconsciousness within a few minutes and to death for critical concentrations. Currently the engineer’s methods of fire safety include various procedures to calculate the fire propagation and smoke spread in buildings.
However, up to now the evaluation and calculation of smoke concerning its optical properties and toxic potential on the basis of a detailed combustion is still a field of research. Since smoke composition is highly variable and not fully characterised it has to be examined whether and how the Chemical composition and the optical properties of smoke are correlating. A method has been developed that establishes the relation between the smoke components and smoke toxicity.