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Um ein verlässliches Ergebnis der Monte-Carlo-Simulation zu garantieren, muss die Zuverlässigkeit des Tools vor dessen Anwendung sorgfältig geprüft werden. In diesem Vortrag werden die Validierung der angenommenen Verteilungsfunktionen, die Vertrauensbereiche und die Grenzwerte der generierten Grundgesamtheit vorgestellt. Darauf aufbauend wird der Ablauf der gesamten Simulation von der Erzeugung der Zufall-Variablen bis hin zur Akzeptanzrate gezeigt.
Safety criteria for the transport of hydrogen in permanently mounted composite pressure vessels
(2020)
The recent growth of the net of hydrogen fuelling stations increases the demands to transport compressed hydrogen on road by battery vehicles or tube-trailers, both in composite pressure vessels. As a transport regulation, the ADR is applicable in Europe and adjoined regions, and is used for national transport in the EU. This regulation provides requirements based on the behaviour of each individual pressure vessel, regardless of the pressure of the transported hydrogen and relevant consequences resulting from generally possible worst case scenarios such as sudden rupture. In 2012, the BAM (German Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing) introduced consequence-dependent requirements and established them in national transport requirements concerning the “UN service life checks” etc. to consider the transported volume and pressure of gases. This results in a requirement that becomes more restrictive as the product of pressure and volume increases. In the studies presented here, the safety measures for hydrogen road transport are identified and reviewed through a number of safety measures from countries including Japan, the USA and China. Subsequently, the failure consequences of using trailer vehicles, the related risk and the chance are evaluated. A benefit-related risk criterion is suggested to add to regulations and to be defined as a safety goal in standards for hydrogen transport vehicles and for mounted pressure vessels. Finally, an idea is given for generating probabilistic safety data and for highly efficient evaluation without a significant increase of effort.
Safety criteria for the transport of hydrogen in permanently mounted composite pressure vessels
(2019)
The recent growing of the net of hydrogen fuelling stations increases the demands to transport compressed hydrogen on road by tube-trailers in composite pressure vessels. As transport regulation the ADR is applicable in Europe and adjoined regions and used for national transport in EU. This regulation provides requirements based on the burst pressure of each individual pressure vessel, regardless the capabilities of the transported hydrogen and relevant consequences resulting from worst case scenarios. In 2012, BAM (German Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing) introduced consequence-dependent requirements and established them in national requirements concerning the “UN service life checks” etc.) to consider the transported volume and pressure of gases. However, this results in a stringent requirement in case of using large pressure vessels (tubes) on tube-trailers. In the studies presented here, the key safety factors for using hydrogen trailers are identified and reviewed through some safety measures from some countries like Japan, USA and China. Subsequently, the risk, chance, failure consequences of using trailers are evaluated, in addition, the difficulties for approving huge pressure vessels (large tubes) are addressed. There, a maximum acceptable pressure-volume product is defined. Finally, a performance-based criterion for the balance of chance and risk of hydrogen trailers is suggested to add into regulations and consequently into standards for hydrogen trailers.
Determination of Distribution Function used in MCS on Safety Analysis of Hydrogen Pressure Vessel
(2019)
The test data of static burst strength and load cycle strength of composite pressure vessels are often described by GAUSSian normal or WEIBULL distribution function to perform safety analyses. The goodness of assumed distribution function plays a significant role in the inferential statistics to predict the population properties by using limited test data. Often, GAUSSian and WEIBULL probability nets are empirical methods used to validate the distribution function; Anderson-Darling and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests are the mostly favorable approaches for Goodness of Fit. However, the different approaches used to determine the parameters of distribution function lead mostly to different conclusions for safety assessments. In this study, six different methods are investigated to show the variations on the rates for accepting the composite pressure vessels according to GTR No. 13 life test procedure. The six methods are: a) Norm-Log based method, b) Least squares regression, c) Weighted least squares regression, d) A linear approach based on good linear unbiased estimators, e) Maximum likelihood estimation and f) The method of moments estimation. In addition, various approaches of ranking function are considered. In the study, Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to generate basic populations based on the distribution functions which are determined using different methods. Then the samples are extracted randomly from a population and evaluated to obtain acceptance rate. Here, the “populations” and “samples” are corresponding to the burst strength or load cycle strength of the pressure vessels made from composite material and a plastic liner (type 4) for the storage of hydrogen. To the end, the results are discussed, and the best reliable methods are proposed.
Safety criteria for the transport of hydrogen in permanently mounted composite pressure vessels
(2019)
The recent growing of the net of hydrogen fuelling stations increases the demands to transport compressed hydrogen on road by batterie vehicles or tube-trailers, both in composite pressure vessels. As transport regulation the ADR is applicable in Europe and adjoined regions and used for national transport in EU. This regulation provides requirements based on the burst pressure of each individual pressure vessel, regardless the capabilities of the transported hydrogen and relevant consequences resulting from worst case scenarios. In 2012, BAM (German Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing) introduced consequence-dependent requirements and established them in national requirements concerning the “UN service life checks” etc. to consider the transported volume and pressure of gases. However, this results in a stringent requirement in case of using large pressure vessels (so called “tubes”) on vehicles. In the studies presented here, the safety measures for hydrogen road transport are identified and reviewed through some safety measures from some countries like Japan, USA and China. Subsequently, the failure consequences of using trailers, the related risks and chances are evaluated. Finally, a chance-related risk criterion is suggested to add into regulations and consequently to be defined as safety goal in standards for hydrogen transport vehicles and consequently for mounted pressure vessels.
The test data for static burst strength and load cycle fatigue strength of pressure vessels can often be well described by Gaussian normal or Weibull distribution functions. There are various approaches which can be used to determine the parameters of the Weibull distribution function; however, the performance of these methods is uncertain. In this study, six methods are evaluated by using the criterion of OSL (observed significance level) from Anderson-Darling (AD) goodness of Fit (GoF), These are: a) the norm-log based method, b) least squares regression, c) weighted least squares regression, d) a linear approach based on good linear unbiased estimators, e) maximum likelihood estimation and f) method of moments estimation. In addition, various approaches of ranking function are considered. The results show that there are no outperforming methods which can be identified clearly, primarily due to the limitation of the small sample size of the test data used for Weibull analysis. This randomness resulting from the sampling is further investigated by using Monte Carlo simulations, concluding that the sample size of the experimental data is more crucial than the exact method used to derive Weibull parameters. Finally, a recommendation is made to consider the uncertainties of the limitations due to the small size for pressure vessel testing and also for general material testing.
Introduction of numerical methods to simulate damage accumulations of composite pressure vessel
(2019)
The development of hydrogen as a reliable energy sector is strongly connected to the performance and the level of safety of hydrogen storage system. Composite damage due to static, fatigue loading and ageing effect is a progressive process. The common failure modes of composite pressure vessels are majorly fibre break, then interface debonding, matrix cracking and delamination. The damages occur subsequently or even simultaneously, failure modes may interactive each other. These attributes make the composite fatigue more complex and difficult. The presentation here is to show how the numerical methods being developed to match this challenge, particularly the numerical model of composite pressure vessel developed by FibreMod research project is introduced. The potential role of numerical simulation in the certification process and the outlook for the further trend is also discussed.
Determination of Distribution Function used in MCS on Safety Analysis of Hydrogen Pressure Vessel
(2019)
The test data of static burst strength and load cycle strength of composite pressure vessels are often described by GAUSSian normal or WEIBULL distribution function to perform safety analyses. The goodness of assumed distribution function plays a significant role in the inferential statistics to predict the population properties by using limited test data. Often, GAUSSian and WEIBULL probability nets are empirical methods used to validate the distribution function; Anderson-Darling and KolmogorovSmirnov tests are the mostly favorable approaches for Goodness of Fit. However, the different approaches used to determine the parameters of distribution function lead mostly to different conclusions for safety assessments. In this study, six different methods are investigated to show the variations on the rates for accepting the composite pressure vessels according to GTR No. 13 life test procedure. The six methods are: a) NormLog based method, b) Least squares regression, c) Weighted least squares regression, d) A linear approach based on good linear unbiased estimators, e) Maximum likelihood estimation and f) The method of moments estimation. In addition, various approaches of ranking function are considered. In the study, Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to generate basic populations based on the distribution functions which are determined using different methods. Then the samples are extracted randomly from a population and evaluated to obtain acceptance rate. Here, the “populations” and “samples” are corresponding to the burst strength or load cycle strength of the pressure vessels made from composite material and a plastic liner (type 4) for the storage of hydrogen. To the end, the results are discussed, and the best reliable methods are proposed.
Hydrogen is an attractive energy carrier that requires high effort for safe storage. For ensuring safety, storage cylinders must undergo a challenging approval process. Relevant standards and regulations for composite cylinders used for the transport of hydrogen and for its onboard storage are currently based on deterministic (e.g. ISO 11119-3) or to some respect semi-probabilistic criteria (UN GTR No. 13; with respect to burst strength).
This paper provides a systematic analysis of the load cycle properties resulting from these regulations and standards. Their characteristics are compared with the probabilistic approach of the Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing BAM. The most important aspect of comparing different concepts is the rate for accepting designs with potentially unsafe or critical safety properties. This acceptance rate is analysed by operating Monte-Carlo simulations over the available range of production properties.