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Appropriate monitoring of transportation infrastructures (e.g. bridges) is of utmost importance to ensure safe operation conditions. Accurate and reliable assessment of such structures can be achieved through the integration of data from non-destructive testing, advanced modeling and model updating techniques. The Bayesian framework has been widely used for updating engineering and mechanical models, due to its probabilistic description of information, in which the posterior probability distribution reflects the knowledge, over the model parameters of interest, inferred from the data. For most real-life applications, the computation of the true posterior involves integrals that are analytically intractable, therefore the implementation of Bayesian inference requires in practice some approximation methods.
This paper investigates the application of Variational Bayesian Inference for structural model parameter identification and update, based on measurements from a real experimental setup. The Variational Bayesian method circumvents the issue of evaluating intractable integrals by using a factorized approximation of the true posterior (mean field approximation) and by choosing a family of conjugate distributions that facilitates the calculations. Inference in the Variational Bayesian framework is seen as solving an optimization problem with the aim of finding the parameters of the factorized posterior which would minimize its Kullback-Leibler divergence in relation to the exact posterior. The Variational Approach is an efficient alternative to sampling methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo, since the latter’s accuracy depends on sampling from the posterior distribution a sufficient amount of times (and therefore requiring an equivalent number of computations of the forward problem, which can be quite expensive).
One of the most important goals in civil engineering is to guaranty the safety of constructions. National standards prescribe a required failure probability in the order of 10-6 (e.g. DIN EN 199:2010-12). The estimation of these failure probabilities is the key point of structural reliability analysis. Generally, it is not possible to compute the failure probability analytically. Therefore, simulation-based methods as well as methods based on surrogate modelling or response surface methods have been developed. Nevertheless, these methods still require a few thousand evaluations of the structure, usually with finite element (FE) simulations, making reliability analysis computationally expensive for relevant applications.
The aim of this contribution is to increase the efficiency of structural reliability analysis by using the advantages of model reduction techniques. Model reduction is a popular concept to decrease the computational effort of complex numerical simulations while maintaining a reasonable accuracy. Coupling a reduced model with an efficient variance reducing sampling algorithm significantly reduces the computational cost of the reliability analysis without a relevant loss of accuracy.
The development of standards that include simulation models is often based on heuristics that include experimental data that is used to calibrate and validate the simulation models. However, these data and the corresponding calibration procedures are usually not part of the publicly accessible documentation making it very difficult to identify gaps in the current standard or extend it to new innovative solutions. The poster shows an adapted procedure that integrates the complete process into a database and a workflow to be published alongside the standard.