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Numerical models are an essential tool in predicting and monitoring the behavior of civil structures. Inferring the model parameters is a challenging tasks as they are often measured indirectly and are affected by uncertainties. Digital twins couple those models with real-world data and can introduce additional, systematic sensor uncertainties related to the sensor calibration, i.e. uncertain offsets and calibration factors.
In this work, the challenges of data processing, parameter identification, model selection and damage detection are explored using a lab-scale cable stayed bridge demonstrator. By combining force measurements in the cables with displacement measurements from both laser and stereo-photogrammetry systems, the elastic parameters of a three-dimensional finite element beam model are inferred.
Depending on the number of sensors and the number of datasets used, parametrizing the sensor offsets and factors, leads to model with over 100 parameters. With a real-time solution of the problem in mind, a highly efficient analytical variational Bayesian approach is used to solve it within seconds. An analysis of the required assumptions and limitations of the approach, especially w.r.t. to the computed evidence, is provided by a comparison with dynamic nested sampling in a simplified problem.
Finally, by inferring the value of additional damage parameters along the bridge, the method is successfully used to detect the location of an artificially introduced weak spot in the demonstrator bridge.
Numerical simulators, such as finite element models, have become increasingly capable of predicting the behaviour of structures and components owing to more sophisticated underlying mathematical models and advanced computing power. A common challenge lies, however, in calibrating these models in terms of their unknown/uncertain parameters. When measurements exist, this can be achieved by comparing the model response against measured data. Besides uncertain model parameters, phenomena like damage can give rise to further uncertainties; in particular, quasi-brittle materials, like concrete, experience damage in a heterogeneous manner due to various imperfections, e.g. in geometry and boundary conditions. This hardens an accurate prediction of the damaged behaviour of real structures that comprise such materials.
In this study, which draws from a data-driven approach, we use the force-version of the finite element model updating method (FEMU-F) to incorporate measured displacements into the identification of the damage parameters, in order to cope with heterogeneity. In this method, instead of conducting a forward evaluation of the model and comparing the model response (displacements) against the data, we impose displacements to the model and compare the resulting force residuals with measured reaction forces. To account for uncertainties in the measurement of displacements, we endow this approach with a penalty term, which reflects the discrepancy between measured and imposed displacements, where the latter is assumed as unknown random variables to be identified as well. A Variational Bayesian approach is used as an approximating tool for computing posterior parameters. The underlying damage model considered in this work is a gradient-enhanced damage model.
We first establish the identification procedure through two virtual examples, where synthetic data (displacements) are generated over a certain spatially-dense set of points over the domain. The procedure is then validated on an experimental case-study; namely a 3-point bending experiment with displacement measurements resulting from a digital image correlation (DIC) analysis.
Numerical models built as virtual-twins of a real structure (digital-twins) are considered the future ofmonitoring systems. Their setup requires the estimation of unknown parameters, which are not directly measurable. Stochastic model identification is then essential, which can be computationally costly and even unfeasible when it comes to real applications. Efficient surrogate models, such as reduced-order method, can be used to overcome this limitation and provide real time model identification. Since their numerical accuracy influences the identification process, the optimal surrogate not only has to be computationally efficient, but also accurate with respect to the identified parameters. This work aims at automatically controlling the Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD) surrogate’s numerical accuracy for parameter identification. For this purpose, a sequence of Bayesian model identification problems, in which the surrogate’s accuracy is iteratively increased, is solved with a variational Bayesian inference procedure. The effect of the numerical accuracy on the resulting posteriors probability density functions is analyzed through two metrics, the Bayes Factor (BF) and a criterion based on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. The approach is demonstrated by a simple test example and by two structural problems. The latter aims to identify spatially distributed damage, modeled with a PGD surrogate extended for log-normal random fields, in two different structures: a truss with synthetic data and a small, reinforced bridge with real measurement data. For all examples, the evolution of the KL-based and BF criteria for increased accuracy is shown and their convergence indicates when model refinement no longer affects the identification results.