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The reliability of deteriorating structures at time t is quantified by the probability that failure occurs within the period leading up to time t. This probability is often referred to as cumulative failure probability and is equal to the cumulative distribution function of the time to failure. In structural reliability, an estimate of the cumulative failure probability is obtained based on probabilistic engineering models of the deterioration processes and structural performance. Information on the condition and the loading contained in inspection and monitoring data can be included in the probability estimate through Bayesian updating. Conditioning the probability of failure on the inspection or monitoring outcomes available at time t (e.g. detections or no detection of damages) can lead to a reduction in that probability.
Such a drop in the cumulative failure probability might seem counterintuitive since the cumulative failure probability is a non-decreasing function of time. In this paper, we illustrate—with the help of a numerical example—that such a drop is possible because the cumulative probability before and after the updating is not based on the same information, hence not on the same probabilistic model.
Predictive information and maintenance optimization for deteriorating structures is concerned with scheduling (a) the collection of information by inspection and monitoring and (b) maintenance actions such as repair, replacement, and retrofitting based on updated predictions of the future condition of the structural system. In this article, we consider the problem of jointly identifying—at the beginning of the service life—the optimal inspection time and repair strategy for a generic welded joint in a generic offshore wind turbine structure subject to fatigue. The optimization is performed based on different types of decision analyses including value of information analyses to quantify the expected service life cost encompassing inspection, repair, and fatigue damage for all relevant combinations of inspection time, repair method, and repair time. Based on the analysis of the expected service life cost, the optimal inspection time, repair method, and repair time are identified. Possible repair methods for a welded joint in an offshore environment include welding and grinding, for which detailed models are formulated and utilized to update the joint’s fatigue performance. The decision analyses reveal that an inspection should be scheduled approximately at mid-service life of the welded joint. A repair should be performed in the same year after an indication and measurement of a fatigue crack given an optimal inspection scheduling. This article concludes with a discussion on the results obtained from the decision and value of information analyses.
Support structures of offshore wind turbines are subject to cyclic stresses generated by different time-variant random loadings such as wind, waves, and currents in combinationwith the excitation by the rotor. In the design phase, the cyclic demand on wind turbine support structure is calculated and forecasted with semi or fully probabilistic engineering models. In some cases, additional cyclic stresses may be induced by construction deviations, unbalanced rotor masses and structural dynamic phenomena such as, for example, the Sommerfeld effect. Both, the significant uncertainties in the design and a validation of absence of unforeseen adverse dynamic phenomena necessitate the employment of measurement Systems on the support structures. The quality of the measurements of the cyclic demand on the support structures depends on (a) the precision of the measurement System consisting of sensors, amplifier and data normalization and (b) algorithms for analyzing and converting data to structural health information. This paper presents the probabilistic modelling and analysis of uncertainties in strain measurements performed for the purposes of reconstructing stress resultants in wind turbine towers.
It is shown how the uncertainties in the strain measurements affect the uncertainty in the individual components of the reconstructed forces and moments. The analysis identifies the components of the vector of stress resultants that can be reconstructed with sufficient precision.
Die Infrastruktursysteme der Industriestaaten erfordern heute und in Zukunft ein effizientes Management bei alternder Bausubstanz, steigenden Lasten und gleichbleibend hohem Sicherheitsniveau. Digitale Technologien bieten ein großes Potenzial zur Bewältigung der aktuellen und künftigen Herausforderungen im Infrastrukturmanagement. Im BMBF-geförderten Projekt Bewertung alternder Infrastrukturbauwerke mit digitalen Technologien (AISTEC) wird untersucht, wie unterschiedliche Technologien und deren Verknüpfung gewinnbringend eingesetzt werden können. Am Beispiel der Maintalbrücke Gemünden werden ein sensorbasiertes Bauwerksmonitoring, bildbasierte Inspektion mit durch Kameras ausgestatteten Drohnen (UAS) und die Verknüpfung digitaler Bauwerksmodelle umgesetzt. Die aufgenommenen Bilder dienen u. a. als Grundlage für spätere visuelle Anomaliedetektionen und eine 3D-Rekonstruktion, welche wiederum für die Kalibrierung und Aktualisierung digitaler Tragwerksmodelle genutzt werden. Kontinuierlich erfasste Sensordaten werden ebenfalls zur Kalibrierung und Aktualisierung der Tragwerksmodelle herangezogen. Diese Modelle werden als Grundlage für Anomaliedetektionen und perspektivisch zur Umsetzung von Konzepten der prädiktiven Instandhaltung verwendet. Belastungsfahrten und historische Daten dienen in diesem Beitrag der Validierung von kalibrierten Tragwerksmodellen.
Structural health monitoring (SHM) intends to improve the management of engineering structures. The number of successful SHM projects – especially SHM research projects – is ever growing, yielding added value and more scientific insight into the management of infrastructure asset. With the advent of the data age, the value of accessible data becomes increasingly evident. In SHM, many new data-centric methods are currently being developed at a high pace. A consequent application of research data management (RDM) concepts in SHM projects enables a systematic management of raw and processed data, and thus facilitates the development and application of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods to the SHM data. In this contribution, a case study based on an institutional RDM framework is presented. Data and metadata from monitoring the structural health of the Maintalbrücke Gemünden for a period of 16 months are managed with the RDM system BAM Data Store, which makes use of the openBIS data management software. An ML procedure is used to classify the data. Feature engineering, feature training and resulting data are performed and modelled in the RDM system.
Support structures of wind turbines in German offshore wind farms are regularly inspected. Currently, inspection outcomes are generally not systematically recorded. This prevents their consistent handling and processing, which is a key requirement to enable an efficient structural integrity management. As part of the DiMoWind-Inspect project, a data model and reference designation system for such inspection results is developed to facilitate their identification, localization, quantification, tracing and linking throughout the lifetime of a wind farm and beyond. The inspection results together with structural health monitoring results and information on repairs form the basis for assessing and predicting the structural condition, estimating the remaining lifetime, and planning of future inspections, structural health monitoring, and repairs. As a basis for developing a digital structural integrity management, a generic framework is proposed in this paper, which describes the stakeholders, data, models, processes and workflows of the integrity management of support structures in offshore wind farms and their interrelations. The framework adopts a building information modelling approach to describe the information relevant to the structural integrity management. The central digital space of the framework is a common data environment. An implementation of the framework will enable a digital structural integrity management in which inspection, structural health monitoring, repair, assessment and planning outcomes generated throughout the life cycle of a wind farm can be consistently collected, managed, shared and processed by the relevant shareholders.
A digital structural integrity management of offshore structures enables an optimized planning of inspections and repairs with risk-based methods. In a risk-based approach, the inspection and repair strategy that minimizes the expected lifetime costs consisting of the expected inspection, repair and failure costs is determined. In addition to inspections, information on the structural condition can be continuously obtained by monitoring the vibration response of the structural system. Changes in the vibration characteristics quantified in terms of modal properties can be an indication of structural damage. In risk-based inspection and repair planning, the effect of monitoring results is determined via Bayesian updating of the structural condition and reliability. This information should be applied to inform decisions on inspections and may result in a reduced inspection effort. The benefit of continuously monitoring the structural health can be quantified in terms of the value of information, which corresponds to the difference between the expected lifetime costs with and without monitoring. In this work, we demonstrate in a numerical example how an optimized sensor placement for a vibration-based structural health monitoring system can be determined by maximizing the value of information.
Brücken werden durch Inspektionen und teilweise durch Monitoring überwacht, um Daten und Informationen über den Zustand und die Einwirkungen zu sammeln. Auf deren Grundlage werden Entscheidungen hinsichtlich Maßnahmen zur Gewährleistung der Sicherheit und Verfügbarkeit getroffen. In diesem Vortrag werden die Potentiale der Digitalisierung zur Unterstützung und Verbesserung der Brückenüberwachung diskutiert. Insbesondere werden die Bereiche Datenmanagement, Brückenmodellierung und Entscheidungsfindung betrachtet.
We present a concept for assessing the system reliability of monitored jacket support struc-tures of offshore wind turbines subjected to fatigue. The concept assumes that a structural health monitoring system periodically records accelerations of the jacket structure caused by ambient excitations. The recorded data is processed by a stochastic subspace-based damage detection algorithm to provide information on the global damage state of the jacket structure. This information is generally uncertain. To determine the effect of such uncertain global monitoring information on the structural reliability, the deterioration state of the jacket structure is described by a probabilistic fatigue deterioration model of all structural elements, which considers stochastic dependence among element fatigue behavior. The system deterioration model is coupled with a probabilistic structural model to compute the system failure probability. Global damage detection information is included in the reliability assessment through Bayesian updating of the system failure probability.
Die BAM erforscht mit Partnern an der TUM und DTU Methoden und Modelle für ein optimiertes Tragwerksmanagement von Infrastrukturbauwerken. Im Rahmen des vom BMVI und der BASt aufgelegten Projektclusters „Intelligente Brücke“ wurde ein Software-Prototyps zur zuverlässigkeitsbasierten Bewertung eines konkreten Spannbetonüberbaus unter Berücksichtigung von Inspektionen und Überwachungssystemen entwickelt. Der entwickelte Software-Prototyp ermöglicht Benutzern ohne vertiefte Kenntnisse der Zuverlässigkeitstheorie eine Berechnung des Einflusses von Bauwerksinformationen auf den Systemschädigungszustand und die Tragsicherheit. Auf dieser Grundlage können effiziente Inspektions- und Überwachungsmaßnahmen identifiziert und das Erhaltungsmanagement optimiert werden.
Der vorliegende Bericht beschreibt Konzepte für eine intelligente Brücke auf der Grundlage einer zuverlässigkeitsbasierten Zustandsbewertung unter Berücksichtigung von Bauwerksinformationen, welche aus Prüfungen, Inspektionen und Überwachung gewonnen werden. Das Brückensystem wird durch ein Modell beschrieben, welches den zentralen Teil des Konzeptes darstellt. Das Modell wird in Schädigungsmodelle und ein Tragwerkssystem-Modell unterteilt. Dieses Modell wird a-priori durch die Eingangsdaten (welche etwa die Geometrie, die Materialien und die Verwendung der Brücke beschreiben) charakterisiert. Aus diesen ergeben sich dann auch die Ausgangsmodelle. Um die signifikanten Streuungen und Unsicherheiten adäquat abzubilden sind diese Modelle probabilistisch. Das Modell liefert eine sich kontinuierlich ändernde probabilistische Zustandsbewertung. Die Zustandsbewertung gibt eine Aussage über den Zustand und die Zuverlässigkeit des Brückensystems und seiner Bauteile und dient als Grundlage für die Planung und die Optimierung von Maßnahmen. Die Verwendung von Resultaten aus Inspektionen, Prüfungen und Überwachungen erfolgt durch eine Aktualisierung der Modellparameter. Die Aktualisierung beruht auf der Methode der Bayes'schen Aktualisierung und wird auf der Grundlage der entwickelten Klassifizierung der Bauwerksinformationen mit entsprechenden Methoden durchgeführt. Dieses Verfahren erlaubt es, alle Informationen in konsistenter Weise in ein einziges Modell einfließen zu lassen. Dabei wird die Genauigkeit und Aussagekraft der gewonnenen Daten und Beobachtungen explizit berücksichtigt. Durch die Aktualisierung der Modellparameter unter Berücksichtigung von Systemeffekten wird die Zustandsbewertung der Bauteile und des Brückensystems aktualisiert. Das ermöglicht die Planung und die Optimierung von Maßnahmen unter Berücksichtigung der Bauwerksinformationen. Auf diese Weise wird die intelligente Brücke mit Inspektionen und Überwachungen zu einem adaptiven System, welches sich Veränderungen anpassen kann.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This report describes concepts for an intelligent bridge on the basis of a reliability-based condition assessment utilizing inspection and monitoring data. The central part of the concept is a model describing the bridge system. The overall bridge model is comprised of deterioration models and a mechanical system model of the structure. The model is a-priori characterized by the input data (such as the geometry, the materials, and the utilization of the bridge). Significant uncertainties in the deterioration modeling as well as the load conditions motivate a probabilistic modeling. The model enables a continuously updated probabilistic condition assessment. It provides information about the condition and the reliability of the bridge system and its components and serves as a basis for the planning and the optimization of maintenance actions. Inspection, measurement, and monitoring information are included by updating the model parameters. Bayesian updating is utilized for the updating of the model parameters and is performed on the basis of the developed classification of structural information and the corresponding procedures. These methodologies allow to consistently incorporate all available information into the model and the prediction. Thereby, the precision and the validity of the data and observations are explicitly accounted for. The condition assessment of the bridge system and its components is updated by updating the model parameters, and maintenance actions can be planned and optimized taking into account all available information in a rational and consistent manner. In this way, the intelligent bridge with inspections, measurements, and monitoring information becomes an adaptive system, which has the ability to adjust to changes.
The Influence of brittle Daniels system characteristics on the value of load monitoring information
(2016)
This paper addresses the influence of deteriorating brittle Daniels system characteristics on the value of structural health monitoring (SHM). The value of SHM is quantified as the difference between the life cycle benefits with and without SHM. A value of SHM analysis is performed within the framework of the Bayesian pre-posterior decision theory and requires (1) structural performance modelling and prediction, (2) structural integrity management models, (3) the (pre-posterior) modelling of SHM and (4) the coupling of SHM and the structural performance models. The pre-posterior decision theoretical framework facilitates that the value of SHM can be quantified before the SHM system is quantified and before data are acquired. The results of this study support decisions to select structural systems for which the SHM strategy load monitoring is optimal.
An efficient approach to reliability analysis of deteriorating structural systems is presented, which considers stochastic dependence among element deterioration. Information on a deteriorating structure obtained through inspection or monitoring is included in the reliability assessment through Bayesian updating of the system deterioration model. The updated system reliability is then obtained through coupling the updated deterioration model with a probabilistic structural model. The underlying high-dimensional structural reliability problems are solved using subset simulation, which is an efficient and robust sampling-based algorithm suitable for such analyses. The approach is demonstrated in two case studies considering a steel frame structure and a Daniels system subjected to high-cycle fatigue.
A software prototype is developed for assessing and updating the reliability of single-cell prestressed concrete box girders subjected to chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion. The underlying system model consists of two integrated sub-models: a condition model for predicting the deterioration state of the box girder and a structural model for evaluating the overall system reliability. The condition model is based on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model which considers the spatial variation of the corrosion process. Inspection data are included in the calculation of the system reliability through Bayesian updating on the basis of the DBN model. To demonstrate the effect of partial inspections, the software prototype is applied to a case study of a typical highway bridge with six spans. The case study illustrates that it is possible to infer the condition of uninspected parts of the structure due to the spatial correlation of the corrosion process.
Inspection and maintenance of concrete bridges is a major cost factor in transportation infrastructure, and there is significant potential for using information gained during inspection to update predictive models of the performance and reliability of such structures. In this context, this paper presents an approach for assessing and updating the reliability of prestressed concrete bridges subjected to chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion. The system deterioration state is determined based on a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model that considers the spatial variability of the corrosion process. The overall system reliability is computed by means of a probabilistic structural model coupled with the deterioration model. Inspection data are included in the system reliability calculation through Bayesian updating on the basis of the DBN model. As proof of concept, a software prototype is developed to implement the method presented here. The software prototype is applied to a typical highway bridge and the influence of inspection information on the system deterioration state and the structural reliability is quantified taking into account the spatial correlation of the corrosion process. This work is a step towards developing a software tool that can be used by engineering practitioners to perform reliability assessments of ageing concrete bridges and update their reliability with inspection and monitoring data.
This paper addresses the quantification of the value of structural health monitoring (SHM) before its implementation for structural systems on the basis of its Value of Information (VoI). The value of SHM is calculated utilizing the Bayesian pre-posterior decision analysis modelling the structural life cycle performance, the integrity management and the structural risks. The relevance and precision of SHM information for the reduction of the structural system risks and the expected cost of the structural integrity management throughout the life cycle constitutes the value of SHM and is quantified with this framework. The approach is focused on fatigue deteriorating structural steel systems for which a continuous resistance deterioration formulation is introduced. In a case study, the value of SHM for load monitoring is calculated for a Daniels system subjected to fatigue deterioration. The influence of and the value of SHM in regard to the structural system risks and the integrity management is explicated and explained. The results are pointing to the importance of the consideration of the structural system risks for the quantification of the value of SHM.