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Eingeladener Vortrag
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An efficient approach to reliability analysis of deteriorating structural systems is presented, which considers stochastic dependence among element deterioration. Information on a deteriorating structure obtained through inspection or monitoring is included in the reliability assessment through Bayesian updating of the system deterioration model. The updated system reliability is then obtained through coupling the updated deterioration model with a probabilistic structural model. The underlying high-dimensional structural reliability problems are solved using subset simulation, which is an efficient and robust sampling-based algorithm suitable for such analyses. The approach is demonstrated in two case studies considering a steel frame structure and a Daniels system subjected to high-cycle fatigue.
A novel method for risk-based optimization of inspection and repair strategies for deteriorating structural systems has recently been proposed. The method defines heuristics at the system level to reduce the number of possible strategies. For each defined strategy, it computes the updated system failure probability conditional on simulated inspection and repair histories, and evaluates the associated costs and risk. The expected total service life costs and risk for a strategy are finally determined using Monte Carlo simulation. The optimal strategy minimizes the expected total service life costs and risk. We intend to adopt this approach to optimize inspection, monitoring and repair activities for offshore wind park support structures. As a first step, we simulate – in analogy to an offshore wind park – the service life performance of an inspected group of jacket-type frames. The performance is quantified in terms of the group’s system failure probability conditional on simulated inspection and repair histories. The underlying system model accounts for the structural redundancy of the frames and the interdependence among their failure events due to similar loading conditions. The model also captures stochastic dependence among the deterioration states of the frames. As part of the simulation process the a-priori unknown outcome of any planned inspection is generated conditional on the outcome of all previous inspections.
A novel method for risk-based optimization of inspection and repair strategies for deteriorating structural systems has recently been proposed. The method defines heuristics at the system level to reduce the number of possible strategies. For each defined strategy, it computes the updated system failure probability conditional on simulated inspection and repair histories, and evaluates the associated costs and risk. The expected total service life costs and risk for a strategy are finally determined using Monte Carlo simulation. The optimal strategy minimizes the expected total service life costs and risk. We intend to adopt this approach to optimize inspection, monitoring and repair activities for offshore wind park support structures. As a first step, we simulate – in analogy to an offshore wind park – the service life performance of an inspected group of jacket-type frames. The performance is quantified in terms of the group’s system failure probability conditional on simulated inspection and repair histories. The underlying system model accounts for the structural redundancy of the frames and the interdependence among their failure events due to similar loading conditions. The model also captures stochastic dependence among the deterioration states of the frames. As part of the simulation process the a-priori unknown outcome of any planned inspection is generated conditional on the outcome of all previous inspections.
Das Ermüdungsverhalten einzelner Schweißverbindungen in Offshore-Strukturen ist stark korreliert. Diese Korrelation entsteht zum einen durch die Verwendung gleicher Prozesse und Materialien bei der Herstellung der Verbindungen, zum anderen sind die ermüdungswirksamen Lasten an verschiedene Hospots im Tragwerk ebenfalls von einander abhängig. Hieraus ergeben sich Systemeffekte, die es ermöglichen, durch stichprobenartige Inspektion des Zustandes einzelner Hotspots auf den Zustand der verbleibenden Hotspots im Tragwerk zu schließen. Auf dieser Grundlage können Inspektions- und Reparaturstrategien für ermüdungsbeanspruchte Offshore-Strukturen mit Hilfe von riskobasierten Methoden optimiert werden. In diesem Vortrag wird weiterführend ein Konzept zur Einbindung von globalen Monitoringergebnissen in die risikobasierte Inspektionsplanung vorgestellt.