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This paper presents a probabilistic methodology based on the thermo-mechanical finite elements analysis to investigate the impact of the variability of the thermal properties of the concrete in the fire safety of structures. This is meant to evaluate if characteristic values or safety factors for the conductivity and specific heat are required during the semi-probabilistic structural fire safety assessment. To illustrate the use of the proposed methodology, this work includes a case-study with a tunnel lining which considers the uncertainties related to the thermal and mechanical properties of the concrete, the soil load, and the temperatures described by the standard temperature-time curve. Two failure criteria are considered: one was the maximum temperature of 300 °C at the reinforcement and the other based on the temperature-dependent strength as provided in the Eurocode EN 1992-1-2. Several finite element analyses are performed. The design of experiments is executed by a Correlation Latin Hypercube Sampling. The calculated probability of failure has different values depending on the adopted failure criteria. A sensitivity analysis using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was carried out and demonstrates that the uncertainty related to the specific heat has the greatest impact on the results.

Probabilistic thermo-Mechanical analysis of a concrete tunnel lining subject to fire The probability distributions of the parameters related to the thermal analysis was considered in order to study the variability of the results and to carry out a reliability analysis. This assessment considered as random variables the thermo-mechanical properties of the concrete, the maximum heat release rate (HRR), the duration of the period of maximum HRR, the convective coefficient, the emissivity at the surface exposed to the fire, the air velocity within the tunnel, and the initial fire radius. The temperature-time curve was described by a correlation. An experimental design based on a Latin Hypercube Sampling algorithm was performed to define the input parameters to each analysis case. The definition of a limit state function based on the punctual strain status has permitted to carry out a reliability analysis.

A probabilistic finite elements analysis (FEA) of a tunnel lining subject to fire is presented. The probability distributions of the parameters related to the thermal analysis was considered in order to study the variability of the results and to carry out a reliability analysis. This assessment considered as random variables the thermo-mechanical properties of the concrete, the maximum heat release rate (HRR), the duration of the period of maximum HRR, the convective coefficient, the emissivity at the surface exposed to the fire, the air velocity within the tunnel, and the initial fire radius. The temperature-time curve was described by a correlation. An experimental design based on a Latin Hypercube Sampling algorithm was performed to define the input parameters to each analysis case. The definition of a limit state function based on the punctual strain status has permitted to carry out a reliability analysis.